Member Info for observer842

"China ferrous futures surge on oil spike, ambitious economic forecast" (March 7, 2022)
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-ferrous-futures-surge-oil-spike-ambitious-economic-forecast-2022-03-07/
===[
March 7 (Reuters) - Chinese ferrous futures rose on Monday, with iron ore hitting a six-month high while other steelmaking ingredients recouped from multi-month losses, as soaring oil prices and an annual economic forecast by the world's second-largest economy lifted sentiment.

Benchmark iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange , for May delivery, ended up 7.1% to 870 yuan ($137.69) per tonne, the highest closing price since Aug.31.
]===

http://www.dce.com.cn/webquote/futures_quote_en.jsp?varietyid=I

DCE evening session closed up. Wonder if we'll see Custeel 58% above $100 later?

Attention - "Cadence will now vest its next 7%"., meaning we are about to take control of 27% of a project that has an estimated CapEx around a quarter that of similar sized project, is PROVEN, and likely has an NPV in the billions. Iron ore up over night and is looking strong in the afternoon session. That is all.

lol @Bannor. Most research is based on a favourable outcome, and risked accordingly. As you know the outcome turned out to be mostly not favourable for us pre Amapa. Doesn't stop it being favourable this time! Similar story for options. Issued on a favourable outcome. Last time, not so much - this time? Analyst reports add value and serve as a good base to perform sensitivity studies. Take them with an appropriate serving of salt to taste - in your case measured by the tablespoon. ;-)

Personally think we need better Reach, Understanding and Belief @Bannor. Your post is touching on belief, and as you say, hopefully that comes with delivering the goods on one or more of our unlisted projects. As to Reach and Understanding, although the PFS isn't due until the summer (why not release the internal scoping study now!?) I'm hopeful we'll get some decent analyst coverage before then. WHI and Edison look primed on that front:

https://www.cadenceminerals.com/investors/analyst-research/

As to Reach, we can all do our bit, there is a fair audience on here and elsewhere, and Kiran is getting himself out and about. Though what we really could do with is someone picking up on our story and exposing our potential in a manner which goes viral! Know any YouTubers? lol.

Wow. Continuing to rise!

https://www.lme.com/en/metals/ev/lme-lithium-hydroxide-cif-fastmarkets-mb#Price+graph

Indeed @Bannor. I really should consider selling some the next time we surge to new heights rather than adding! lol.

Definitely a strong buy. lol

And I feel much more confident in my investment as a result of it. It's good to talk! lol

Evidence.

For the avoidance of doubt: "So in my mind, it's completely possible we haven't even started to take the 27% yet." - my mind was incorrect. lol. We HAVE started to take it.

Indeed @Bannor and @TJ - the placing was to take us to 27%, and we are in the process of "vesting" this "now". :-)))

As to the "book value" of Amapa when we take our 27%? It's unclear how this will be calculated, but I would have thought a reasonable minimum might be along the lines of Anglo's asset for sale $660m valuation minus the existing negotiated debt of $103m, and the estimated CapEx of say $200m, and 27% of what is left - as a very rough ball park:

($660m - $103m - $200m) * 27% = £72m = 42p for Amapa.

Personally I think this massively underplays the prospects, and I'm quite confident the NPV presented in the PFS will be multiples of this, in the $1.5 -$2B range, achievable in a few short years if all goes well. Very strong buy from me at this price!

Ob.

I think you are missing a few key words and ultimately the point @TJ: "This was justified by the rhetoric of having to do it to take us straight to 27%" - should read: "This was justified by the rhetoric of having the capability to take us to 27% when called upon". If our JV partners were playing hardball and could see we likely didn't have the means to provide these funds within the allotted time, then to do well by their shareholders, no matter how friendly they may appear on a personal level to our BoD, they MAY have decided to execute that play - essentially kicking us out of the project, and this is what we needed to protect against. But you don't execute a play if you can see that the recipient has the means... Foreclosures come to mind as an analogy. So in my mind, it's completely possible we haven't even started to take the 27% yet. And we shouldn't if we have a choice - we should take it as late as possible, letting the project derisk: if it falls apart I'd rather we had the additional circa £2m on our books rather than tied up in legal shenanigans in Amapa.

For the avoidance of doubt, I don't think Amapa is falling apart, or will fall apart, and I think it is likely we HAVE started the procedure to take 27%, but like the 20% these things take time...

Ob.

In terms of public "chat" groups, this is probably the most active for KDNC unless I'm missing one! In terms of public collection and sharing of research I'd certainly recommend reddit as you simply can't put together something like the weekly summary on here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/t355db/weekly_discussion_thread_upcoming_news_icymi/

In terms of private groups. Knock your socks off, create as many as you like, talk to as many current shareholders as you can, increase the reach, spread the word - it's just a shame it's unsearchable... Are there ways round this? Maybe these groups can be private to contribute to, but public to read without having to sign up to anything?

Ob.

More like 7% and touching 10% at one point - though this admittedly includes some of yesterday evening's rise, so perhaps 5% is fairer :-)

http://www.dce.com.cn/DCE/Products/Industrial/Iron%20Ore/index.html

Does that mean you don't believe the reason given or don't understand it? Either way, going by the declining share price I think you aren't alone in your boat...

On a brighter note, iron ore is on a tear!

http://www.dce.com.cn/webquote/futures_quote_en.jsp?varietyid=I

Indeed @EV. And iron ore continues to climb http://www.dce.com.cn/webquote/futures_quote_en.jsp?varietyid=I

I find it quite remarkable that I can (and have!) buy significantly below the last placing price. Expecting a strong bounce at some point soon on news. Brave or foolhardy? One of those! lol.

Indeed @Bannor & @EV, second guessing may not be sufficient this time round!

Page 17 is a better summary of the location and current situation than what I linked to last night for our LT&LS prospects. :-)

https://www.cadenceminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Cadence_PPT_Feb2022.pdf