Member Info for observer842

Exactly @Legalease. Ganfeng could easily be planning a similar operation in the South of the mining pit 100% in the JV lands. The post tax NPV8 of Sonora 17.5ktpa/35ktpa is $802m at $11/kg. It increases by $190m for every additional $1/kg (Table 22.1.4: Sensitivity Analysis – Post-Tax NPV8% ($ million)). I'd say a reasonable range of long term contract lithium prices is $15/kg to $25/kg. Call it $20/kg. Meaning the NPV8 would increase by 9 * $190m = $1.7B to $2.5B.

30% of that is $750m to KDNC.

I say HOLD @Kiran - or negotiate a royalty based on expansion plans of this nature. If Ganfeng claim this is fantasy, they should be more than happy to accept the deal eh? lol.

Lol. It's amusing all the different opinions. Surely it's simple: we agree to completely sell out for a handsome cash offer £100m+ today, or we take whatever may be on the table (perhaps £20m?) and make up the NPV difference with royalty payments over the next 100 years. Couldn't be simpler? ;-) And yes, I'm joking - nothing KDNC is simple!

LoL @Dallas, your post should have come with an old ground alert warning!

@Bannor - I said NOT the PI's, but the institutions...

Exactly @tomcat! Ganfeng may have been able to pull the wool over the BCN shareholders (not necessarily the PI's like yourself, but the institutions!) by holding back the various announcements they were promising, but from what I can see Kiran's a little bit more on the ball when it comes to the lithium market, and just how much is going to be required the coming decade!

@EV Worth taking a look at Table 22.1.4: Sensitivity Analysis – Post-Tax NPV8% ($ million), and plugging in whatever long term contract price you think is reasonable today. Can't image you'll be using $11/kg ;-)

My view:

"[Due Diligence] LSE:KDNC - Cadence Minerals - Undervalued Lithium and EV Metals investment company with transformative iron ore mine deal now secured"
https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/rugni1/due_diligence_lsekdnc_cadence_minerals/
https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/rugni1/comment/hr2hb8n/
===[
On the bare minimum conservative estimate of at least £20m for our Sonora assets I would be quite disappointed if we didn't manage to achieve £100m+ in the current environment of futures over $40/kg a year out for all of our Sonora JV claims.

If we are offered £20m in cash now I'd expect it to be solely for our 30% of the 11.95% feed from the JV areas defined on page 138 of the current 17.5ktpa/35ktpa mining plan with a decent royalty negotiated for the remainder if BCN/Ganfeng continue to stick by their guns and claim the JV's will not be mined for some time, even with expansion plans: If you aren't going to mine the JV's soon, then we want decent royalty to take them off our hands, otherwise we'll sit tight and fund our share/consider selling them when the time comes.
]===

LME spot now stands at $36/kg

https://www.lme.com/Metals/EV/Lithium-prices
===[
Fastmarkets MB lithium hydroxide monohydrate: min 56.5% LiOH2O battery grade, spot prices CIF China, Japan and Korea, $/KG.

Date Price (US$ per kilogram)
6 January 2022 36.00
30 December 2021 33.00
23 December 2021 32.00
16 December 2021 31.00
]===

and futures over $42/kg a year out:

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/battery-metals/lithium-hydroxide-cif-cjk-fastmarkets.html#

Eye watering really. Crazy that the market is overlooking the potential of our Sonora asset. But then again, KDNC is one heck of a complicated share IMHO, and anyone who says otherwise clearly hasn't DYOR!

£100m+ for the lot, with no royalty, would be an acceptable outcome IMHO. $200m is possible - just maybe not today! lol.

Ob.

A reminder of a link to view all comments in date order similar to on here if that is your thing - it's certainly mine on occasion!

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/

You might need to view in desktop mode if viewing from a mobile and you don't have the app or want to log in. The link is also available from the drop down menu along the top under "sub".

Incidentally there are links from that site to this site, so it's all good right? Horses for courses. ;-)

Fingers crossed for a good day tomorrow!

I'm really appreciative, as I'm sure @EV will be for all comments related to his due diligence post, and comments on those comments here or there, doesn't matter where, horses for courses. It's something I wanted to do for sometime on LSE, but the course and time never seemed quite right, so it's great to see it finally done on the right course and hopefully the right time, and quite professionally looking too!

In my eyes the weekly discussion thread supported by occasional due diligence posts is a fantastic resource for both new comers and long term holders alike. Thanks @EV!

"[Due Diligence] LSE:KDNC - Cadence Minerals - Undervalued Lithium and EV Metals investment company with transformative iron ore mine deal now secured"
https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/rugni1/due_diligence_lsekdnc_cadence_minerals/

"Weekly Discussion Thread; Upcoming News; ICYMI [January 03, 2022]"
https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/rur6xd/weekly_discussion_thread_upcoming_news_icymi/

Links broke! Grrr LSE!

"[Due Diligence] LSE:KDNC - Cadence Minerals - Undervalued Lithium and EV Metals investment company with transformative iron ore mine deal now secured"
https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/rugni1/comment/hr20qze/
===[
Great DD EV! Worth pointing out that by my reckoning

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/q56bac/anglo_american_annual_reports_detailing_the/hlt8945/

which I believe no one has found fault with, Anglo valued the Amapa project on a 100% basis at $3.2B in 2008. There are various avenues discussed throughout this site and summarised in the weekly discussion thread

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/rur6xd/weekly_discussion_thread_upcoming_news_icymi/

which I believe could realise this valuation once again with good execution and a following wind. Perhaps even exceed it.
]===

Here you go @MBW ;-). My comment on @EV's DD post:

===[
Great DD EV! Worth pointing out that by my reckoning (https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/q56bac/anglo_american_annual_reports_detailing_the/hlt8945/), which I believe no one has found fault with, Anglo valued the Amapa project on a 100% basis at $3.2B in 2008. There are various avenues discussed throughout this site and summarised in the weekly discussion thread (https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/rur6xd/weekly_discussion_thread_upcoming_news_icymi/) which I believe could realise this valuation once again with good execution and a following wind. Perhaps even exceed it.
]===

Getting a little crazy now...

"Low supply drives up Chinese lithium prices" (December 31, 2021)
https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/4022166/Latest-news/Low-supply-drives-up-Chinese-lithium-prices.html
===[
Fastmarkets’ price assessment for lithium carbonate, 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery grade, spot price range exw domestic China was 275,000-290,000 yuan ($43,147-45,500) per tonne on Thursday, up by 20,000-25,000 yuan per tonne from 250,000-270,000 yuan per tonne a week earlier.
]===

lol. Didn't realise we were top of the risers!

https://www.lse.co.uk/share-prices/risers.html

Indeed @jimb. A rather annoying hurdle finally cleared with this announcement! Very relaxed now waiting for the inevitable news flow and growing awareness of just what we have a hold of here. It'll come. :-)))

For the benefit of those new looking in wanting to DYOR, I recommend taking a read through this post and the comments:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/q56bac/anglo_american_annual_reports_detailing_the/

Here is the summary of one of the comments which is too long to post on here:
===[
This is purely my own interpretation based on reading through the annual reports and coupled with KDNC presentations and reports. Anglo bought Amapa with the intention of doing it up and selling it on as part of a package of assets. This proved harder than expected, with almost $500m of additional CapEx going into the project to scale up the operation towards 6Mtpa. At a time of unfavourable exchange rates and low iron ore prices they impaired the project significantly from earlier valuations of $3.2B to $1.2B to $660m and due to a major geological event ended up selling for a valuation of between $134m and $264m.

With good planning, execution and fortune, former valuations could be achieved, perhaps even exceeded.
]===

This speaks volumes to me @MBW. But as many will realise, there is a fair amount of research required to understand the WHY behind @Kiran's belief. Happy to wait and watch us grow over the coming weeks, months and years. :-)

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/KDNC/amapa-iron-ore-project-update-xhlufpntfknc7q8.html
===[
"Having achieved what we set out to do, the work really starts in earnest. Bringing Amapa back to life has created a raft of new opportunities for the region and its community, with improved prospects for employment, health and education. The opportunity is simply huge: Amapa was once owned Anglo American, and we fully intend to restore the mine and infrastructure to its former glory, and more besides given that we intend to produce a higher quality product mix. Even now, the value of this transaction is only starting to register with the markets, something I truly believe will change dramatically in the coming years."
]===

lol @MBW. Most of the below words are links to additional information enabling those who are interested to DYOR.

We are on the cusp of taking 20%...

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/rpcydb/weekly_discussion_thread_upcoming_news_icymi/
===[
...of a project with an estimated internal valuation of $3.2B in 2008

PFS Announcements including possibilities such as: 11Mtpa, 105kt New Panamax, additional 800Mt resource, local steel plant and Green Opportunities such as lower cost renewable energy & higher grade 67% Fe ore
]===

There is a LOT of news flow in the pipeline. This is just the start of the re-rate IMHO as the market cottons on...

It's the weekly summary of recent and upcoming KDNC news @MBW. Far too long to post on here. I highly recommend anyone taking a look if they haven't already. We are now MASSIVELY undervalued IMHO. But each to their own...

For those looking to DYOR, here is a good place to start:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/rpcydb/weekly_discussion_thread_upcoming_news_icymi/

lol @EV. I was trying to be less blunt! @triki - if you aren't having a laugh, it'll click at some point and you'll slap your forehead. ;-)