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Freight continuing to fall, iron ore continuing to rise. From a futures perspective the combination is looking quite rosy, and increasingly so as the trends absorb the spot movements! ;-)

Thanks for sharing that @Dee. You didn't have to. Makes sense.

Thanks for having a try @Foz! Just to repeat in a different way: being removed from an index is not the same as leaving a stock exchange. You are absolutely right about the liquidity as I mentioned earlier - if this stays on AIM and heads towards production then the shares could be like gold dust to get hold of with today's Lithium prices as I'd say the vast majority of those that have accepted the deal or have sold have done so already... the rest will be looking for something, shall we say, a little more attractive. ;-)

It's fascinating! I'm watching because I'm in KDNC, and KDNC owns 30% of the areas with the highest grades which expansion plans will very likely mean they get mined earlier and in greater volume than in the DFS. IMHO.

@triki, with greatest respect, I don't think you can be understanding what I am saying if you are asking: "Where can you trade those shares if they are not listed in the AIM Index?" lol. maybe you'll have an aha moment when you realise the nature of an index, and how it is something completely different to a listing. Perhaps someone else can explain it better than me?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_index

@tomcat. I haven't verified all of your research, but I thought I'd note that "27aug… rs… 1,100,000…" could be both lower (potentially zero) or higher (up to 1%) than that now.

@triki. Did you read the link I shared?

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/constituent.asp
===[
What Is a Constituent?
A constituent is a company whose shares are part of an index such as the S&P 500 or Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). It is a component or a member of an index. The weighted aggregation of the share prices of all its constituents is used to calculate the value of an index.
]===

All that has happened is that now that the offer is unconditional BCN is no longer eligible to be included in the "FTSE AIM All-Share Index" from start of trading tomorrow. It doesn't mean you can't trade your shares on AIM. It simply means that this value:

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AXX:INDEXFTSE

will no longer be influenced by movements in BCN's share price, until it is reincluded - assuming over 75% isn't achieved and BCN doesn't apply to be de-listed.

Just a removal from an INDEX. There are rules about the eligibility of shares in certain indexes. This might help:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/constituent.asp

But of course the Institutions would have kept a closer eye on these options, knowing their issue was always a possibility and therefore increased their holding to above 25% on the day before they were likely to be issued and accepted - assuming the Mexican authorities played ball... So not a coincidence after all? lol.

Actually I tell a lie, those 37.000 shares were bought the day before, reported after the options issues. Maybe it's all one big coincidence. lol.

@john. If @tomcat's research is correct, and our calculations based on it are too, and if the purpose of the institutions buying was to prevent delisting, rather than to flip, then as things stand now they have more than 25% of the fully diluted shares (are there any other options kicking around @tomcat?). Therefore they are effectively blocking the delist. If any one of them accepts the offer then anyone of them who wants to accept for regulator reasons of their own, or for any other reason, will be able to accept too before the delist.

The point is: as it stands, and if the research is correct, BCN isn't delisting from AIM... This situation may change, but you can bet your bottom dollar the institutions have been following this more closely than the PI's and are well aware of the situation - those 37,000 shares bought AFTER the BoD/Ganfeng tried to dilute them to below 25% says it all to me.

I only realised the possibility of what was going on yesterday thanks to @tomcat!

Ob.

@trik. This isn't PI 25% of shares, it's institutions. You realise if they are in for the long game, it means BCN doesn't delist, and the number of shares in free float is remarkably small. Unheard of small. Could rocket if there is any sort of demand for them... But pure speculation on my behalf. Maybe they'll just issue more options to the BoD and dilute below 25%?

PI's should perhaps have noted what the institutions were doing earlier... lol

So they issued enough options with the potential to reduce the holdings of the institutions to:

96,797,079 / (2,991,601 + 384,144,901) = 25.0033%

You'll see they actually had the potential to reduce the holdings to 24.9938%, but on the same day WEI, bought 37,000 shares

(96,797,079 -37,000) / (2,991,601 + 384,144,901) = 24.9938%

Looks like last minute struggles to get over/stay under 75% to me... But it might just be a coincidence!

Good spot @tomcat, according to the most recent RNS there are 384,144,901 shares which means they hold:

96,797,079 / 384,144,901 =25.198%

I don't like coincidences @tomcat, so I checked your figures. I got a total of 73,755,288 from your 16:40 post. This line should read "22nov… gam… 3,902,136…" but that isn't why you are out by exactly 1,000,000. Fat fingers elsewhere?

And if you missed it first time round Rodney Hooper's research report on EMH is at:

https://www.europeanmet.com/research-reports/
https://www.europeanmet.com/wp-content/uploads/EMH-Feb-Report-2021-FD.pdf
===[
European / UK regulations are yet to be reflected in the EMH share price. Several catalysts should rerate EMH relative to its European and US peers. Based on current lithium peer fully funded EV/EBITDA valuations, we have a fair value price range of A$2.91 – A$3.49/share over the next 12 months.

Longer-term we believe EMH's 49% stake should trade on a 10x EV/EBITDA multiple once steady-state production is achieved from 2025. This equates to a A$4.67/share price with a "blue sky" upside assuming 50ktpa of production long-term of A$7.64/share.
]===

Lithium prices have increased significantly since this report :-)

All things Sonora/BCN from a KDNC angle - look for the posts with lots of comments:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/?f=flair_name%3A%22Mexico%20%2F%20BCN%20%2F%20Sonora%20JV%22

And prices soaring!

"Global lithium carbonate prices rise on limited availability" (December 17, 2021)
https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/4020675/Lithium/Global-lithium-carbonate-prices-rise-on-limited-availability.html
===[
Fastmarkets’ assessment of lithium carbonate, 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery grade, spot price range exw domestic China, was 230,000-245,000 yuan ($36,112-38,468) per tonne on Thursday, up by 15,000 yuan per tonne from 215,000-230,000 yuan per tonne a week earlier.
]===

Prices soaring!

"Global lithium carbonate prices rise on limited availability" (December 17, 2021)
https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/4020675/Lithium/Global-lithium-carbonate-prices-rise-on-limited-availability.html
===[
Fastmarkets’ assessment of lithium carbonate, 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery grade, spot price range exw domestic China, was 230,000-245,000 yuan ($36,112-38,468) per tonne on Thursday, up by 15,000 yuan per tonne from 215,000-230,000 yuan per tonne a week earlier.
]===

And breath... Fantastic news for KDNC! Sonora is going ahead :-)))

Perhaps @Fingers. Hard to second guess. In a revised PFS I'd increase the baseline prices to $14-16/kg in the first 5-10 years and perhaps fall off back to $10-12/kg in later years, and include organic expansion plans to 50ktpa and beyond, ala WHI proposals. Unless there is a strategic advantage to delaying expansion plans to the BFS I don't see why the market shouldn't be alerted to the possibilities now, and what these may look like. Coming from analysts is one thing, coming from the horse's mouth is another! ;-) In the current market, starting at 50ktpa may even be a possibility...