Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
Faron Thibodeaux -- who is leading the very experienced team from Pioneer (including input from Tom Layman and many others) on the drilling of this Amungee H2 well, -- will be overseeing the entire fracking process. Faron has an incredible background of drilling 1000's of successful shale gas wells and appears to have both the expertise and long term experience to make sure each frack is placed in the best location.
From what I could find on reading up about the Marcellus fracking procedures -- I am fairly sure that Faron and his team won't just be doing an evenly spaced frack every 50 meters. The best way to get the longest lateral fracks appears to be with working with the rock geology itself -- to determine exactly where to set the actual locations for each frack.
The way I understood it, from reading up on successful Marcellus wells, -- is the fracks could be 60 or even 70 meters apart in some sections of the full 1300 meter long horizontal, and only 30 meters apart in other spots. The final location for each frack will depend on where Faron (and the team working this critical Amungee H2 well) see's that the rock geology will best lend itself to receiving the high pressure frack fluids to produce the longest lateral cracks -- which should hopefully release the greatest amount of gas.
Nice pick up of 5000 shares this morning scinceday1 -- but it would really help if you mortgaged your house and bought a few million hitting the ask all the way up to 25 cents -- LOL.
We may drift a tiny bit lower -- as any real news to drive us higher is weeks away, and there will be a few more daytraders getting nervous, but .15 cents is so close to the bottom -- that I think you will see five to seven times your investment over the next 24 months!! As always with Falcon -- the future looks bright -- it's the NOW that is hard to take :-)
Please ignore my last message -- I was never good at math -- LOL.
My numbers were way off on each well producing 93,000 cu ft. per day -- as somehow in my head I had interpreted that as 93,000 as 93 million cu ft per day. If these wells that Chesapeake sold are only producing 93,000 cu ft per day -- then everything I calculated (except the cost of drilling those 2300 wells) is way off. These 2300 wells have to be at or very near their end of production to be this low -- but WetWater might have some clarity on that.
Interesting Acquisition Origin789 -- as this sale price gives us some idea on pricing for natural gas producing assets in the US -- where gas prices are currently much lower than in Aussieland.
The production of 36,000 barrels of oil equivalent -- works out to approximately 216,000,000 cu ft of gas per day -- when using the industry conversion number below:
"equivalent barrels" of oil. One barrel of oil is generally deemed to have the same amount of energy content as 6,000 cubic feet of natural gas. So this quantity of natural gas 6,000 cubic feet -- is "equivalent" to one barrel of oil.
This acquisition of 2,300 wells producing approximately 216,000,000 cu.ft/day of gas per day must be in a fairly prolific area of the Eagle Ford shale in Texas. Each of these 2,300 wells would most likely be 3 mile long horizontals and would have to be producing approximately 93,000 cu.ft/day of gas in order to reach that total daily production of 36,000 barrels of oil equivalent.
I am not positive, but I would assume that most of these 2300 wells are stacked plays -- as the best we would see from 4 km (3mile) long horizontal in just the single zone Amungee B shale would be less than one third of that 93,000 cu.ft./day number. I have seen schematics of the Eagle Ford where they have up to four stacked plays on a single well -- so that might be what is getting this much higher production number for each of those 2300 wells. Fortunately for us -- the current price of natural gas in Aussieland is almost four times what it is in Texas -- so that will help on commercialization.
UK based INEOS only paid $1.4 billion for these 2300 wells -- which sounds like a pretty darn good purchase overall when looking at the daily production volumes and the fact that all the cost of drilling those 2300 wells was already paid for by Chesapeake Energy. These 2300 wells must have been producing for quite some time already before Chesapeake let them go at this ridiculously low price -- as the cost of drilling those wells was many times (almost seven) that $1.4 billion number -- if they got the well costs down to $5 million each.
The following clip is from the Tamboran discussion on HotCopper and was posted to HotCopper late last week:
"EEG advised -- "The C-2H EPT has been temporarily shut-in after a total period of 51 days. Over the first 30 days (“IP30”) of the EPT C-2H had an average gas production rate of 2.4 mmscf per day".
The C-2H well had a total of 21 fracks over a one kilometer distance -- with flow rates of 2.6 mm cu.ft/day normalized --which was a bit disappointing when we look at our Amungee H2 well only running the horizontal leg 250 meters longer than Empire's C-2H well. This Empire well appears to be a long way from what many consider the CORE area for the Beetaloo, and is at a much shallower depth (with 4.5 inch casing) which could be part of the reason for those lower flow rates??
Empire said that the C-3H was two km long on the horizontal leg and that they performed 40 fracks on that longer horizontal. I believe they are currently doing frack water clean up on the C-3H well, but does anyone know when we might hear actual flow rates on the C-3H that are hopefully more than double the C-2H well from Empire??
Otd2000, I am not sure what the casing at 5.5 inch would have cost, but Hardrock might have a general idea.
With the Condor fracking and everything else included -- the Amungee H2 is expected to come in just under the $40 million that was estimated for the first of the two remaining wells owed to Falcon under the original Origin nine well agreement. This leaves approximately another $40 million to be spent by Tamboran on our next well out of the approximately $80 million that Tamboran agreed to for the last two wells that Origin did not complete in the original JV.
If the Amungee H2 flows as expected -- I believe the second of the two wells that Tamboran committed to with Origin -- will be a 3 km horizontal at the step out location 10 km away?? It will make more sense, at that time, to spend more than $40 million and make that next well a bigger part of the Pilot production program, as well as proving up another area in the Beetaloo that is 10 km distant.
While 74 cents US sounds like it is a bit low for a final sell-out price -- as one dollar US would feel much better to me and everyone else I am sure (except those dreaming of $10 LOL). However, this would still represent a market cap for Falcon, (a Canadian registered company), that is over one billion Canuck bucks. This is not trifling amount -- especially when you take into account that any buyer of Falcon's interest for a billion Canuck bucks would most likely also have to make a minimum commitment to Brian Sheffield of at least another $1/2 billion over the next 3 to 5 years??
Otd2000 wrote: "I eagerly await the day for a resolution to falcon but not sure what I’d rather do".
After almost 14 years -- I am also eagerly awaiting for some sort of resolution to the Falcon saga. However, my son often gives me the gears -- calling Falcon my never ending 14 year "Soap Opera" and he wonders how I will keep myself entertained if the Falcon soap opera ever comes to an end -- LOL.
I am not sure what you guys are smoking -- but whatever it is I want some -- LOL.
Falcon may make it to the very first phase of the Pilot Production plan, but most likely only for the first two or three longer horizontals in the earliest part of the Pilot phase. Those 3 km horizontals are going to run around $40 million a pop, so Falcon's share for three of those will be another $25 million -- requiring another fairly large Falcon funding raise -- hopefully at 50 cents by then and not lower??
Beyond that first phase -- Brian Sheffield is going to need Joint Venture partners with much deeper pockets than Falcon will ever have -- when the partners have to start building the very expensive gas processing plant and gathering lines to bring the gas to that processing plant. Whoever partners with Sheffield at that point will have to commit possibly up to one half billion dollars in funding towards the next 100 wells -- just so Sheffield knows he has a partner with staying power. Those next 100 wells should come way down in cost -- but could easily still be in the 20 million dollar range per well -- for a total of 2 billion dollars.
Falcon's share of that kind of funding would be close to that 1/2 billion dollar range -- and to get there Falcon would have to put up another billion shares at around that 50 cent level -- and then you would have to wait possibly another 5 years to see if that bet paid off???
From my perspective -- I am hoping we see great results from this current well, and then move forward with the current JOA to get the next two horizontals done. If those next two wells are 3 km horizontals and produce around 15 to 18 mm cu.ft/day -- then I think there is a good chance that POQ will accept an offer from any number of major gas industry players (and Sheffield will be driving that deal forward). This offer could be to sell either just Falcon's 22.5 % of EP 98 for something like $500 million, but more realistically -- due to tax considerations -- to sell Falcon's 22.5% of all three permits for hopefully closer to $1 Cdn.
Great news today, and those Condor trucks managed to sneak past the Sentinel satellite during cloudy days -- LOL.
Just for some fun with numbers!! It took fifteen years to get the expertise on fracking just right in the Marcellus, but since 2021 -- new flow rates on successful CORE area 3 mile long (almost 4 km) horizontals in the Marcellus shale have come in at 24 mm SCFD to a high or 32 mm SCFD. Falcon's stock price could see a really nice bump -- if we see Amungee H2 flow rates coming in at anything close to 25% of these numbers (as the Amungee H2 horizontal length is only at 25% of the full length 3 mile long Marcellus horizontals).
Thanks Hardrock, When you hit the moisture index button on that Sentinel link -- you get an almost solid blue coloring -- so lots of rain in those clouds by the looks of that index anyway.
There is speculation that the fracking crew from Condor could be on site in 8 to 10 days. Therefore -- I was just wondering if you have heard anything along those lines?? and whether the Carpentaria Hwy and weather will cooperate for that many large pumping trucks to get on to the Amungee site???
Without any inkling of news coming our way any time soon -- a tiny sell of 500 shares ($75 at 15 cents) on the TSX (with only 1/10 of second remaining before the market closed for the weekend) knocked the market cap of Falcon down by $5 million -- LOL.
Great post kmj -- and you are exactly right in that I wasn't being too serious, but rather just "Bored" of waiting for the updates and equipment movements. As Jf indicated -- more alcohol is warranted :-)
There is absolutely no doubt that the change from Origin to Tambo/Sheffield has been the best step forward in years for Falcon. I firmly believe that all the expertise that is now being brought to bare on this critical Amungee well (with Tom Layman, Faron Thibodeaux and his Pioneer team, along with David Close and Alexander Cote) is going change Falcon's stock trajectory up and out of this bottom feeding range for good in the next couple of months.
While Philip has been indicating that anything above 3 mm cu.ft/day will move us into the commercial range, and Riddle has been indicating numbers closer to 5 mm cu.ft/day -- there is a good chance that WetWater's estimates of 6 to 7 mm cu.ft/day could come to fruition.
This higher estimate for actual flow rates is not a massive stretch If the total frack count is close to Riddle's hopeful number of 24, which is twice as many as the original Amungee H1 horizontal. Then we have to take into account Faron Thibodeaux's ability to make sure that the 5.5 casing was laid in perfectly in the B shale, plus the expectation that the Condon team will be pumping at much higher rates with the larger 5.5 inch casing -- which should result in the fracture stimulations having longer lateral cracks covering more area in the B shale. All of which could get us closer to WetWaters estimates on flow rates -- hopefully.
dprussky -- just a quick note to the effect that scinceday1 has it correct as best as I can tell. The orange coloration in the most recent Sentinel satellite shot appears to be just dirt -- as it is the same color as the road coming in from the Carpentaria Hwy.
Just some wishful thinking on my part!!! However, there is still time for the Condor trucks to arrive just after mid-month and start the fracking process before the end of February -- hopefully.
dprussky, just a quick question -- as you have been using the Sentinel program and have a much better handle on what is shown on these images than I can decipher. There appears to be much more of a solid orange coloring to ITguy's satellite view this morning of the entire area north and east of the solid black square -- than there was in the satellite view posted by Derrick a couple of days ago.
Derrick's post, by comparison to ITguy's post, had a few areas of a very faint white coloring above the big black square of the Amungee well pad -- that are now filled in with more of the solid light orange (dirt?? ) coloring.
I was wondering if you can deceiver whether that is just more open ground in the most recent satellite view -- (which has a very orange tint to the dirt in the Beetaloo) -- or could that possibly be from the orange Condor frack trucks filling in that open ground??
Here is a clip from a Yahoo finance update on H&P's fourth quarter results (thanks to a reference by craigus69 over on the HotCopper chat board). This clip from H&P sounds very promising for Tambo and Falcon going forward when a company of H&P's size (with over 30,000 horizonal completions) is one of the JOA partners!!!
Regarding the International Solutions segment, the company's expansion efforts are centered around unconventional drilling where H&P has significant experience drilling unconventional wells given that our FlexRig fleet has drilled over 30,000 horizontal wells in the US over the past 10 years.
Preparations to send a super-spec rig to Australia for an unconventional gas play in the Beetaloo Basin are well underway. These international unconventional plays provide a great opportunity for H&P to locate super-spec FlexRigs in the Beetaloo, Middle East, and other unconventional growth areas without the need to build new rigs. These rigs and our capabilities provide great opportunity to utilize the idle FlexRig capacity and showcase our technology to grow our international footprint.
On the technology front, we continue to experience a growing appreciation for our technology solutions which are adding significant value for our customers through rig efficiencies and wellbore quality. Many of our technology products and automation solutions have become integral parts of the bid process and daily operational workflows. Our operational and technology teams are delivering outstanding results for customers. Longer laterals and more consistent target attainment continue to be key themes for our customers.
To achieve both, we have seen increasing usage across our technology portfolio with automation driving consistent three-plus mile lateral delivery. This trend is not limited to one customer or one basin, but rather is becoming the way we work and deliver value.
scinceday1 -- if Condor is going to start the frack process by mid-February -- then those 10 to 12 massive pumping trucks will have to be onsite by next week at the latest.
Hardrock has indicated that we "might" get some news next week and that the weather appears to be cooperating. Here is the normal link to the weather conditions in the N.T. -- so just clik on the little black square for Daly Waters!! This weather update for Daly Waters shows fairly decent conditions for the next week, and certainly much nicer than here in British Columbia. :-)
http://www.bom.gov.au/nt/forecasts/map7day.shtml
Here is a link to the last public interview that I can find for Tamboran's CEO Joel Riddle. This interview was done just before Christmas -- which makes this probably one of the longest stretches without any promotional appearances by Riddle.
Keeping my fingers crossed that we hear something positive from the Amungee H2 site fairly soon. All this quiet is becoming a bit more concerning as to whether any of the target dates that Riddle mentions in the interview are going to be met?? If past history is any example -- there is usually a positive update shortly after I post one of my nervous nellie rants -- so my fingers are crossed for a few days!!
If Hardrock is reading this -- maybe he might have a bit more insight on how things are progressing with the movement of the Condor pumping trucks to the site and whether road work or weather are impeding these target dates by Riddle??
https://ceo.ca/@thenewswire/tamboran-resources-drills-and-cases-a2h-well-ahead
Thanks Derrick for the updated Sentinel satellite view of the Amungee pad, and I hope you are correct about maybe frack trucks?? in the satellite snapshot.
I think I might need to get much stronger glasses -- as I couldn't see any bright orange Condor fracking trucks -- just a bunch of blurry white and black crop circles or squares that aliens might be responsible for -- LOL.
https://www.condorenergy.com.au/