Thanks Origin789 for the good news on some of the key Origin staff coming over to Tambo.
I am really hoping that Tamboran picked up Alexander Cote -- as both Alexander and David Close have worked well in the past on getting the Beetaloo to this stage. The other personnel that Tamboran badly needs, and hopefully got with this news, were the much more skilled staff at Origin that knew how to correctly deal with the local pastoralists and with the Aboriginal Land Council. Tambo's record in those two areas was dismal compared to Origin -- so hoping to see that improve with this announcement.
Here is a link below to the actual press release -- which also has the news that the deal with Origin has been completed -- so there is no reason not to get on with drilling. We may also get some sort of an update soon on when and where the second well will be drilled under the old JV -- hopefully sooner rather than six months down the line?
https://www.investi.com.au/api/announcements/tbn/5c9fcf47-ef4.pdf
Any "Hard" news Hardrock -- on today being the day the drilling starts -- or just an educated guess from what you see on the satellite feeds?? It would make sense that something happens soon -- as the daily expenses are climbing fairly quickly.
Thanks Hardrock -- as you experience with fracking is invaluable to this Board -- with most, like myself, having no experience of real first hand knowledge on the fracking process.
I have my fingers crossed that we hear something by way of spudding in the next five days -- now that most of the prep work is looking good and the rig apparently on site. I think the only delay beyond this week would be "lawyers". If there are any disagreements between Origin and Tamboran on who pays for exactly what and when -- then neither side will be giving the go ahead to start the drill turning until all those lengthy agreements are signed off by both parties.
However, with the rig on site, equipment moving in, and the crews booked -- I don't think either party will want this dragging on very long -- as the costs are really starting to escalate even without the drill bit turning??
Excellent post kmjliveson -- especially your point about how critical this next one? or two? wells are for Falcon and maybe even more so for Tamboran.
With Tamboran now focusing primarily on Falcon's EP 98 permit rather than their original EP 136 permit next door -- Tamboran needs to see success to drive their share price ahead of doing their next funding raise. Fortunately, for Falcon -- that next funding raise is probably a little further out due to the cash in the bank and the added $30 million in carry under the new JOA.
To my way of looking at the first well (that should spud any day now if all the legal framework is finally signed) -- I am extremely nervous about flow rates if only ONE well gets fracked this year. We have already seen the disappointing initial flow rates from the Amungee H1 -- that happened with that casing deformation just past the geologic fault. I am much more confident in the overall team that will be involved in drilling the next wells, including Tom Layman, David Close, and Brian Sheffield, along with the planning for a total of 20 fracks across that 1000 meters.
However, there is still an extremely high degree of risk with just one single well getting fracked this year -- as opposed to the original plans for two wells -- (both on the existing Amungee pad and approved by the Northern Territory). If one of those two wells (that is exactly what Tamboran/Sheffield bought from Origin and approved by the NT already) does not flow at close to 5 mm cu.ft/day, but the second well does -- then the market will focus on that single well success. If only one well is fracked this year and the flow rates in March of 2023 are sub-par then both Tamboran and Falcon's stock will get kicked down so hard that we might not see daylight again.
To my way of thinking -- POQ has to enforce the original agreement with Origin and thus force Tamboran to live up to that agreement and drill two wells from the existing Amungee pad -- as the risks to both companies of sub-par flow rates from one well is just too great. Since Tamboran is planning on putting all four of the next wells onto production status -- there is no reason for them to not live up to the Origin JV agreement of two 1000 meter wells at the Amungee H1 site.
Hardrock or anyone following Empire closely??
The Carpenteria-2H well results appear to be very good with low CO2 levels and fairly low decline rates as per the press release posted by Hardrock on Sunday. In there press release they mention a high-calorific gas composition, but there was no specific details on how high the actual liquids content was nor any breakdown on which ethane's were present.
From the EP 76 Flank well that Origin drilled two years ago -- POQ was able to put out a press release showing the very high liquids contents from that vertical well -- which showed just over 30% liquids -- along with a breakdown on the various ethane's present. Since the Carpenteria-2H is the closed well to Falcon's EP76 permit -- just wondering if I missed any prior press releases from Empire that gave a more detailed outline of the liquids potential and percentages???
From Empires press release:
" The success of C-2H is an extremely encouraging step towards commerciality. It provided
key information for future wells including:
• Beetaloo-specific horizontal well drilling methods;
• Enhancement of Beetaloo-specific hydraulic stimulation fluid selection, perforation strategy,
proppant concentration and pumping techniques;
• refinement of the target window for landing a Velkerri B Shale horizontal section;
• understanding the high-calorific gas composition at Carpentaria; and
• further confirmation of the very low CO2 (0.88%) content of the produced gas".
smallfish -- if you move over to Tamboran/Empire your comments from that side would still be welcome here. I believe that dprussky is pretty much all out of Falcon, but still in Tambo/Empire and dprussky's comments are always welcome here.
With Tamboran trading at 20 aussie cents -- down from the 40 aussie cents that BS made his first large purchase, and Falcon trading at 10 cents Cdn. -- down from his original large purchase at 20 cents Cdn. -- I don't see a great deal of difference in performance to date.
However, I still believe that Falcon has a slightly better risk to reward ratio for a number of reasons -- including the 3% ORRI for Falcon's 22% share of the Beetaloo versus Tamboran's almost 9% ORRI for their 38% share of the Beetaloo. The potential dilution with Tamboran could be significantly greater as well -- since their recent massive dilution will only cover them for the next year to 18 months before a major fund raise will be required for a more extensive Pilot Production program. Falcon will have to do another fund raise as well for the enhanced Pilot Production program, but with the current $80 million carry on the next two Amungee wells, plus the new $30 million carry on the following two wells in 2023 and 2024 -- (along with the $16 US currently in the bank) -- Falcon's dilution should be considerably less.
Like Hardrock mentioned yesterday -- we should have some sort of spudding update in the next week -- once Tamboran, Origin, and Falcon have all signed off completely on the new financing details and the new JOA for the Beetaloo.
Poods, these links below show two out of the three really spectacular golf courses near Dublin that I would love to play -- if we ever get Falcon shares high enough to have that celebration??
You will see from the pictures that it would be a quite a spectacular and fairly easy walk -- and for any that do bring clubs this could be where the old saying may be quite accurate if the wind is blowing hard: "golfing is a good walk ruined" -- LOL.
https://www.theroyaldublingolfclub.com/
https://www.royallytham.org/
Hang in Poods -- as long as you can!! I think that many of the long term holders (myself included) are starting to accept that our kids (or grandkids) are going to be the main beneficiary's -- but it would be nice to meet you in Dublin whenever that celebration of Falcon's success might come to fruition (and golf too).
Poods -- if you keep going at your current rate of accumulation you will surpass POQ's share total in only 2 years!!! Then you can think about throwing your hat in the ring to be the next CEO, but you would have to move to Dublin -- LOL.
gonoles -- it is looking more likely that next week we should get some sort of indication on when the spudding on the first of well has taken place (with hopefully two wells this year)?? I think that some of the increase in volume lately might be from POQ starting to get back on the road with investor shows again -- now that the new and improved JOA appears to be somewhat in place, and the Origin debacle is more or less behind us.
Longknife -- I am feeling your frustration with the never ending delays for any kind of return from holding Falcon forever!!
Now -- we have only ONE of the two Amungee wells that have been promised for this year going ahead. Falcon has a way of disappointing investors at just about every single turn, and now Origin has added another disappointment into the mix -- even after they dumped their 77% share for a massive loss.
Tamboran isn't even committed to the second well as yet -- as their press release says they are "EVALUATING" a plan to drill the A3H well 10 km away and NOT until the middle of 2023 -- so no flow testing for at least a year for that second well as per Tamboran's statement below:
"The EP 98 joint venture is evaluating a plan to drill the A3H well from a well pad approximately 10 kilometres
east of the existing ANW 1H well pad. The well is planned to be fracture stimulated with up to 20 stages
over a 1,000-metre horizontal section within the Mid-Velkerri “B Shale” during the middle of calendar year
2023, following six months of water bore monitoring, as required under Northern Territory regulation".
One of the very important reasons for drilling both wells NOW -- even if they drill the second well from the existing well pad (and not the new pad that for some mindboggling stupid reason Origin didn't bother with water bore testing) -- is to have some positive news in the event that one or the two wells is not commercial. We saw something similar with one of the two Santos wells not performing to the same higher degree of commerciality. If this single Amungee well is not a big success -- Falcon will drop to almost zero -- and Sheffield will step in for a few pennies per share and take Falcon private.
The only bit of good news out of this disaster -- is that Falcon shouldn't need to dilute this stock even further until 2024 -- as virtually NOTHING is being done to use up any Falcon reserve funds (nor to drive the share price up) for the next year or longer.
Beetaloo, I don't think we have had any accurate estimates on what a multiple of six -- 3 km long horizontal wells drilling program would cost when all six are drilled from the same well pad in a wagon wheel formation. I think the closest we will get to that kind of estimate will be next year when Tambo/Sheffield drills two 3 km long horizontals from the new Amungee pad that is 10 km out from the existing well pad. After those two are drilled -- we should have better estimate on what a six horizontal program will cost if all wells were drilled from the same well pad?
As far as Falcon waiting longer to participate on the next two 3 km long horizontals planned for 2023/24 -- I don't think Falcon can afford to delay it's participation for a couple of reasons. I am not positive, but would expect that under the $30 million dollar free Carry that POQ has negotiated with Tambo/Sheffield -- that there will be a conditional time limit to that Free Carry, along with Tambo/Sheffield expecting that the Free Carry be predominantly used for those upcoming 3 km horizontals?? We should know more when Falcon puts out a final press release on what the new JOV has for hard details. The other reason I believe that Falcon will want to participate in those two new 3 km horizontals is to lock in Falcon's 22% interest across the full Amungee zone that is shown on page 27 of Tamborans' Sept. 20th press release. Locking in the first 6400 acre zone will be advantageous for both a very limited cash flow to Falcon, but mainly it will give Falcon great press coverage that will come from selling the first tranche of gas to finally flow from the Beetaloo. We don't want to be left out of that press coverage and minor cash flow -- as POQ will be looking closely at that successful result to go to the market for an equity raise or private placement.
Just a quick added note on capital requirements for Falcon over the planned four wells to be drilled in Falcon's EP 98 over the next two years. It is looking fairly positive that Falcon will not have to dilute the existing shareholders with a private placement or stock offering until the end of 2024 and possibly into 2025??
On page 17 of Tamboran's Sept. 20th press release -- Tamboran indicates that five new wells will be drilled (and put on production no less) over the next 18 months (and most likely the next 24 months). One of those five wells will be Tambo's Maverick well and the other four are planned for Falcon's EP98 permit at the expanded Amungee zone.
There will be the next two one kilometer horizontals at our Amungee H1 well pad -- that Falcon is carried to the tune of 80 million in Aussie dollars. This should either fully cover or very nearly fully cover all of Falcon's share for those next two wells that will have 20 frack stages per well with an anticipated flow rate of 5 mm cu.ft/day.
For arguments sake -- let's just estimate that the costs on those two horizontals on the existing Amungee well pad will run over by 10 million Aussie dollars. This would require Falcon to pay an extra just over $2 million Aussie dollars from the existing approximately $16 million US in Falcon's bank account currently
In 2023/24 Tamboran and Sheffield are planning two 3 km long horizontals over at the second well pad 10 km away that has most of the civil engineering prep work already completed. Because of the longer 3 km length and the 60 frack stages per each of those two wells -- let's assume those two wells will cost $100 million in Aussie dollars -- (which is maybe too high given the improved drilling times that Tamboran achieved at their Maverick well site).
Currently, under the new JOV that Falcon agreed to this past week -- Falcon will be carried to the tune of $30 million in Aussie dollars for the next two 3km long wells -- half in 2023 and the other half in 2024. If we deduct the $30 million in new CARRY for Falcon --this will leave approximately $70 million to be funded on those next two 3km long horizontals by Tambo/Sheffield and Falcon.
This would require Falcon to come up with just under $16 million in Aussie dollars for Falcon's 22.5% of that $70 million in Aussie dollars -- or alternately approximately $11 million in US funds. Even with the on-going annual operating expenses for Falcon -- these numbers would seem to indicate that Falcon should still have a tiny bit of the existing $16 million in US Funds still in the bank at the end of 2024?
In reading through the very detailed Tamboran press release from September 20th (link attached below) it appears that Falcon's share of the Beetaloo gas will be a bit more profitable with significantly lower ORRI's attached to future sales.
The royalties that have been added to Falcon's 22% of the Beetaloo (1% to TOG and 2% to Sheffield) are less than half of Sheffield's royalties on his 38% of the Beetaloo (1% to TOG and 5.5% to Origin), and only one third of Tamboran's 38% of the Beetaloo (1% to TOG, 2.3% to Sheffield, and 5.5% to Origin).
This press release below is worth taking the time to read carefully through -- paying particular attention to pages 10 through to page 33. Tamboran offers more detail on a much faster drilling program with specific timelines, along with some catalysts, economics, and details on the next two horizontals at our Amungee H1 well pad.
Here is just "one" of the many interesting parts of this press release on page 27!!! Tamboran announces that both new horizontals will be drilled from the same existing 1H well pad and not from two separate well pads (with the second one 10 km away). This was a surprise as I was still expecting two separate well pads to be drilled this Fall, but this news should help to move the fracking and flow testing along faster than expected without the need to move the rig and fracking trucks to second well pad.
"Planning to commence drilling operations with the A2H well in October 2022,
immediately followed by the A3H well (both drilled from the existing ANW 1H well pad)".
On page 17 of the same press release -- Tamboran shows that the next two horizontals planned for 2023 appear to be on that second well pad that Origin has done most of the civil engineering work on already (as shown by the great satellite posts from ITguy and dprussky.
https://www.investi.com.au/api/announcements/tbn/295c865c-f1d.pdf
If anyone notices any other changes or key points -- after reading through this very lengthy Tamboran press release -- please post anything relevant. This improved new deal with Tambo/Sheffield certainly looks like a much faster track to cash flow than what we had three months ago, and our 22% position significantly strengthened with more optionality in the future.
UncleBuk wrote:
"The regular posters have been wrong at EVERY turn, this will be no different"!
The regular posters either dig up, or learn through research, mostly useful information to add to the discussion on this board, (with definitely some wrong turns), but they at least try to add discourse to help clarify some of the dramatic turns in this crazy stock.
As an informed TROLL -- you would think you would right at EVERY turn -- but in reading all your prior posts there is just about nothing positive about Falcon with lots of consistent complaints as per just a sampling of your last ten posts::
"Jhealy, I have hoped, prayed, cried and wished that this stock would be successful. I have come to the very sad realization that this probably is not going to happen".
"I don't think I can recall another stock that has been this badly handled"
"VM, I think most people have little or no confidence in POQ at this point"
"Be careful what you wish for when you want a response from POQ, he has consistently been misleading"
"Pood's grandkids are not going to be happy"
"LK, this stock is going to tank on the LSE I would presume"
"Unfortunately when you have a consistently losing team, maybe the 80 million "soccer experts" might have some legitimate questions on how the team is run"
"Once again it looks like the market isn't rewarding FOG for the success of others"
"Good news once again and our stock goes down to $.11 cad, wow"
"$.11 cents Canadian is pointing to maybe there will be no drilling this year! If they put off drilling this year, my vote will be to oust the current management"
And I saved the best for last:
"I really get a kick out of people who advertise who is on their filter list, nobody cares. This is a chat board, all perspectives are welcome"
UncleBuk -- since your posts to this board are like listening to consistent whiner who has not contributed a single positive or illuminating comment on Falcon's future prospects -- I am adding you NOW to my filter list. As per your last statement above -- I know you won't care, but neither will I -- and more importantly -- I won't "SEE" your negative reply to my post -- nor will I see any of your consistent negativity in future posts.
Investors in Falcon should reevaluate their patience threshold given the recent changes in ownership of the Origin Beetaloo holdings, and the improvements in protecting Falcon shareholders from predatory actions by the new owners.
Falcon has been gradually changing from a dedicated seller of it's 22% interest in the Beetaloo -- over to a longer term player ever since the Pilot production idea was first mentioned late last year. However, with the recent improvements negotiated by POQ -- it has become much clearer that any divesture of Falcon's 22% interest in the Beetaloo is much father away than one, two, or even three years out. Both new and old (or really old -- LOL) investors need to take these changes into account when calculating their own time frame for a decent return on their investment.
I believe that we will be looking at a slower capex commitment by Falcon as we move slowly into this new relationship with Tambo and Sheffield -- and that could add a longer time frame in regards to seeing a significantly higher price for Falcon shares. Once the next two horizontals prove up commerciality -- I think we should see a nice move up on both Tambo and Falcon shares -- with Falcon shares moving well above Sheffield's 20 cent CDN purchase price. The stock markets (in Aussieland, UK, Canada, and most significantly the Texan connections in the USA) will start to re-rate the massive size of the Beetaloo -- with commercial flow rates -- especially with the expertise coming with Sheffield, the new drilling partner, and Tom Layman.
However, it is worth noting that under this new JOA with Tambo/Sheffield -- I believe that Falcon will take a slower approach into 2023/24 than the old plan with Origin for a possible ten well pilot production plan. Falcon now has the luxury of letting the new owners of Origin's interest take the lead in getting drilling costs down and proving up more contingent resources over the next year or two -- with Falcon potentially only participating in three or four wells. Falcon is now partially carried under the new deal for another $30 million as it applies to one well in 2023 and one well in 2024 -- which will help to keep Falcon's share of capex to a minimum, (and reduce the amount of necessary stock dilution over that same time period).
To some degree -- this slower approach to drilling by Falcon (which is just my hypothetical view currently) will result in a slower appreciation of Falcon's shares over the next one to three years, but all the extra drilling done by Tambo/Sheffield will have very positive spillover effects on Falcon's share price as more contingent resources are added and the drilling costs reduced.