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Thanks ITguy for the Empire update -- which has a lot of useful information and schematic drawings.
Would you (or anyone else) know why Empire has indicated in this clip below -- that they have drilled the C-4V well to the vertical depth of 2000 meters, but then plugged the well back to surface and are not presently going to drill a horizontal section or frack that well??
Carpentaria-4V (“C-4V”)
The vertical appraisal C-4V well, which commenced drilling on 15 December 2022, reached a total depth
of 2,000 metres (6,562 feet) in 12 days on 27 December 2022. C-4V targeted and intersected the same
stacked Velkerri Formation shales as the offset Carpentaria wells. Following an extensive wireline
formation evaluation program, that included rotary sidewall cores, the well was plugged back to surface
casing for potential future horizontal development drilling. The drilling program concluded on 5 January
2023 and the rig demobilised.
The other interesting part of Empire's update -- was the schematics drawings on page 4 -- which shows that the thickness of the A, B, and C shales are incredibly similar in thickness to the seven wells drilled by Origin all across Falcon's three permits totaling over 4 million acres. The schematics also show what Origin has indicated -- which is the C shale is generally as thick as the B shale and has real potential for stacked horizontals all across the Beetaloo, but the A shale is possibly too thin??
Northern, With the shift towards getting at least some production out of the Beetaloo for Falcon, and clearer indications of commercial production levels -- the sale of all or part of Falcon's 22.5% of the Beetaloo will most likely be driven by either our JOA partners or by a third party in need of a fairly large and secure source of methane molecules.
This would indicate that the timeline has shifted more towards early 2024 or possibly into 2025 before either Brian Sheffield, who will need much deeper pockets in his JV partners than Falcon -- to develop the Beetaloo over a 20 year time span. Alternatively -- someone like Inpex could make a reasonable offer to secure Falcon's 10 to 12 TCF of gas to move forward on their next two LNG trains in Darwin. Either of these two will work for Brian Sheffield -- as bringing in a large US shale producer -- like his dad's Pioneer Resources may be required, but a third party like Inpex would work for BS just as well. If Inpex comes calling with a decent offer -- they will be happy to let BS run the entire Beetaloo production show -- as Inpex is not an experienced driller and fracker like BS is more than capable of.
Because Falcon's 22.5% share of the gas can be sold to whoever Falcon wants to sell that 22.5% to -- with no restrictions and only a 3% total ORRI (and zero committed sales to Origin or to the East Coast gas market) -- it makes Falcon's share of the gas much more attractive to someone like Inpex.
Great post Beetaloo -- and you are exactly right on two counts.
#1. -- Don't get expectations too high that we are disappointed with only 3 to 4 mm cu.ft/day? As you correctly state --they are still trying to crack the code, but 5 would be a bonus that would help to get us much closer to #2 below.
#2. -- And the most important one -- is golf with POQ and Newfofo -- when the share price gets above 50 cents???
PS -- either you are cheating with one of those language programs Beetaloo -- or your English has improved dramatically over the years, either way -- you are a valued poster to this chat board.
Good find schlemiel, but another example of how the nimby reporters try to support the greenies without any guilt at totally misleading reporting.
Here is the reporter's KEY Point at the top of the misleading article:
"A gas industry representative says it expects Beetaloo fracking production licenses could be issued in a month."
The a-hole reporter for this NEWS outlet is trying his best to totally mislead readers!! This reporter has purposely written this piece of BS so that readers think that "fracking" is somehow actual production with above statement calling fracking as "fracking production licenses" -- when they are two "totally separate" licenses with that the NT gov't. Even the knucklehead with APPEA hasn't got his facts straight, but that is most likely a purposeful misleading quote by this useless reporter working for the greenies.
Even though the NT Labour gov't has not completed all of the Pepper Inquiry recommendation -- (which they have promised to do before any actual production starts) -- actual production won't happen until the end of 2024 at the earliest. That leaves almost two years for the NT gov't to complete all the remaining 35 recommendations -- but no where in this reporters piece of BS is that referenced at all.
Longknife -- I am fairly sure that POQ mentioned the 3000 number again in his Investor Meets presentation with a codicil that the 3000 number would be the minimum for a fairly clear indication of commerciality. I would think that, like most everyone else, he is really looking for something closer to that 5000 number to be indicted at the end of the 60 day flow test.
Macquarie Bank, and others, are following the "normalized" numbers that came out of the re-test of the Amungee H1 in September of 2021, -- that indicated 5000 cu.ft/day if the casing deformation had not happened and all 12 fracks were contributing to that 5000 number instead of only four fracks. Like everyone else, including Joel Riddle, the 5000 number has sort of become the new de-facto number for indicating a major step forward in the Beetaloo.
If all of the Condor pumping trucks, along with tons of frack sand, can get past the Carpentaria Hwy repairs by the middle of February -- then there is a good chance that we will have good indications of flow rates by the end of March or early April. The 60 day flow test numbers would not be out until the end of May or early June if all else goes well, but given this is Falcon we are talking about -- what are the chances of that happening -- LOL.
Condor's opening page has a good shot of the number of pumping trucks that will be needed for the potential 24 fracks at the Amungee H2 site, along with the rest of thier service capabilities. They appear to be more than capable for what is needed.
https://www.condorenergy.com.au/
This investment bank analysis from MacQuarie Bank has only a 35 cent target currently for Tamboran, but with a note that there will be an upward re-rating if the flow rates come at 5 mm for the Amungee H2 well.
https://www.marketindex.com.au/news/macquarie-bank-is-bullish-on-this-australian-energy-stock
Interesting question superspazz, and most likely one that you would need to send to POQ to get a definitive answer??
Tamboran, under the new JOA agreement, is the "operator" for the entire three permits currently -- just like Origin was up until this deal with Tamboran. Therefore, any wells drilled across the permits would have to be approved by and managed by Tamboran I believe. If Falcon wanted to drill in a new location, and if Tamboran had zero interest in participating in that particular well, -- then there would most likely have to be some sort of modification to the existing JOA for that to happen -- is my guess??
Because any new drilling across the three permits will add to the overall knowledge and value of the shale gas in the Beetaloo, such a modification to the JOA could potentially be reached -- especially if the proposed well location was in an entirely new zone or area where little was known about the geology.
That being said -- there is very little chance that Falcon would ever consider raising 100% of the necessary funds for such a sole risk new well if the other JOA partners, with all of their combined expertise, were not interested.
What was very interesting from the recent Investor Meets presentation -- was the excellent question about whether Falcon will be able to sell it's 22.5% of the trillions of shale gas in the Beetaloo to whomever they wanted?? This question was in reference to Inpex and whether Falcon could sell it's share of the gas to Inpex? POQ seemed to indicate that Falcon would be in a position to do just that -- after all the infrastructure, gathering lines, and gas processing center were in place. Selling Falcon's gas to Inpex should theoretically result in a slightly higher overall net price to Falcon if the LNG pricing remains higher in three years time.
Great post Poods.
I think that part of the lack of momentum (currently) has our past to blame??? Falcon has had so many time delay disappointments, (ever since the Moratorium was initiated) -- that many investors have left this stock and others are in a "show me" mode.
The really positive news is just what you have focused on for ages -- which is the geology!! Now, we have some absolute world class expertise and experience at getting that geology to actually produce with commercial flows. The skill level at what is being brought to bare on this Amungee H2 well is some of the best shale gas experts, and I feel pretty confident that sellers at this level will see their mistake within months this time (instead of years -- LOL).
We had an interesting and somewhat illuminating update on the current Amungee H2 well with the Investor Meets presentation this morning. Philip reaffirmed that Condor will be supplying state of the art fracking equipment and expertise for that coming part of completion -- which sounds very promising. The actual timeline for the fracking equipment to arrive has now being pushed back to hopefully only the middle of February "weather permitting"??
There was no update on the Carpentaria Highway construction that is currently underway -- so we have no clarity on what that might do to these timelines, but hopefully Hardrock's update last week seems to indicate no major issues with that. I don't think the current share price run up will hold for the short term -- as the market seemed to be expecting better news on the fracking start date, but an extra month to wait is relatively minor given some the delays we have seen over the past ten years -- LOL.
Hardrock -- While finding another Browse Basin offshore in the Timor Sea would most likely be preferred by Inpex -- there doesn't appear to be another relatively easy target in the Timor Sea for 12 TCF of gas -- that isn't already held by Santos or others I don't believe??
Inpex does own the permit directly to the West of Daly Waters and adjacent to Falcon's three permits. However, one of the reasons why Inpex may not be moving forward to explore that permit is because that permit area was a throw back to the N.T. Resources ministry by Falcon almost ten years ago. Back then -- the NT Resources dept. required Falcon to forfeit a small part of the overall Beetaloo permits if they weren't going to spend any funds exploring that permit area.
At that time Falcon was the beneficiary of almost $80 million in seismic work that Hess had been required to undertake, and the permit area that Inpex now holds was determined to be the least prospective area for shale gas in the Beetaloo!!
When Falcon relinquished that smaller permit area to the west -- the NT Resources dept went to Inpex and talked Inpex into taking up that permit. Inpex has done nothing since then -- which may be another indication that shale gas is not as concentrated to the West of Daly Waters, but that has not been confirmed with any exploration work to date.
WW -- something to ponder about in regards to the next 1 km horizontal -- that is still all of Tamboran's responsibility from the original Origin agreement.
If this current 1250 km is as successful as all of us are hoping -- there are a couple of good reasons to pick up and move the rig 10 km to the step out location. First reason is -- a second 1000 to 1250 km horizontal off of the current well pad doesn't give us any new data on the lateral extent of Velkerri B shale -- as the current 1250 well will tell the geo boys just about everything they need to know about the Velkerri B at the current Amungee H2 well site.
That then begs the question of what good will come from drilling another 1250 meter horizontal well at upwards of 40 million without getting a great deal of new data on the target zone. It would probably make more sense, if this current 1250 horizontal is successful, -- to do the second well at the 10 km step out location and thereby prove up a much greater overall lateral extent for the Velkerri B shale in an area that hasn't been tested as yet. This would also help prove up the viability of the proposed 3 km horizontals for that step out location too.
Second thought -- if this current 1250 flows at wonderful dry gas quantities -- why spend upwards of $40 million on drilling only 1250 meters of horizontal -- when another $20 million would get us the very first of the 3 km long horizontals that will be moving everyone closer to full production?? The H & P rig will be on site by this coming summer -- so maybe instead of drilling a slightly wasteful one km horizontal at the current location -- they move 10 km to the step out location and they drill the first of the 3 km horizontals with Falcon covered for the first 40 million (plus another up to 6 million under the new JOA agreement). This potentially could mean that Falcon would be fully carried on a 3 km horizontal -- with real potential for a small amount of cash flow down the line. That is the scenario that I am hoping to hear after the 5 mm plus gas flow rates come in on this well, and we get a full update on the 2023 forward plans??
Inpex Corp (1605.T), Japan's biggest oil and natural gas explorer, aims to accelerate its expansion of production and sales of liquefied natural gas (LNG) on the premise that LNG market will remain tight in the mid-term, its CEO said on Thursday.
"Global LNG market is expected to remain tight in the mid-term due to the structural change of the global natural gas market since Russian invasion of Ukraine," Inpex CEO Takayuki Ueda told Reuters in an interview.
"We'll make more efforts to acquire assets that can respond to future demand growth of LNG, including expanding Ichthys," Ueda said, referring to its LNG project in Darwin, Australia".
HERE is the most INTERESTING COMMENT from Inpex's CEO about exploring the area (the N.T.) for additional resources. Inpex would like to move from 2 trains currently at the Darwin LNG plant to 4 trains by 2030 -- which will require finding at least another 10 to 12 TCF of gas resources being available -- (and guess who has just that right amount of gas reserves in it's 22.5% of the Beetaloo):
Inpex, which is on track to boost an annual production capacity of Ichthys to 9.3 million tonnes in 2024 from 8.9 million tonnes now, " will explore the surrounding areas for additional gas sources while accelerating its consideration of an expansion of the project in around 2030", Ueda said
Hey WW -- I can't speak for Beetaloo, but it is only the Empire well that I am expecting the lower 6 to 8 mm flow rate!!! This is only because of the shallower depth and from the previous flow rates that Empire has posted for their first horizontal.
I think you are most likely very close to the number at 7 mmcf/d for the 1250 meters at the Amungee site -- but that high may only come if they are able to do the optimistically forecast of a full 24 fracks. Anything at 5 mm would be just fine from a commercial standpoint, but the expertise that is being brought bare on this first JOA horizontal is getting the excitement level moving higher on the TSX, LSE and the pink sheets in the US.
WW -- I think Beetaloo's estimate at 6 to 8 mm/cfd from the 40 fracks by Empire is probably a more realistic estimate, and still a very strong overall flow rate from this C-3H well.
Empire's Carpentaria - 3H well is significantly shallower than either the Amungee or the earlier Santo's wells -- so the pressure may not be great enough to achieve the higher flow rates. However, I think that Beetaloo's estimate of anything around 6 to 8 mm will be a very strong showing from the Velkerri B shale -- given the shallower depth and fairly long distance from Riddle's new CORE area -- LOL.
Now that we are 12 days into the New Year -- let's here some sort of darn update on the mobilization of the fracking equipment that Riddle promised the market almost three weeks ago??
Many thanks Hardrock -- as those timelines for the highway upgrades and resurfacing were concerning -- especially with the Amungee H2 pad being at almost the very end of the first 50 km contract area, but that doesn't appear to be an issue.
I will be waiting and watching what Riddell has to say in the next week about the mobilization of all the fracking equipment -- especially to learn what this interesting cryptic comment might indicate -- "the blacktop part isn't a problem. I'll leave it at that".
Thanks again -- for all your invaluable insight into both the technical side of the work, along with the bits and pieces of what is actually happening on the ground in the Beetaloo -- as it is most appreciated by the rest of us neophytes that are half a world away!!!
The first 50 km of the upgrades to the Carpentaria highway are currently underway -- with the next 90 km scheduled for the following year. This is part of the Federal and NT governments commitment to accelerate gas production from the Beetaloo Basin -- which is great news as the total cost is around $130 million.
However, the deadline for completing the first 50 km by April is somewhat concerning. Therefore, the big question (that maybe Hardrock might be able to determine for us??) is when will the current Amungee H2 site be accessible for the 10 to 12 massive pumping trucks to get past the construction zones and on site?? The Amungee H2 well site is almost at the very end of that first 50 km section (as shown by the map on page five of the Origin/Geoscience link below) -- so really hoping that Tamboran and the NT are cooperating on allowing bypasses that are capable of handling the weight of those huge pumping trucks soon??
https://dipl.nt.gov.au/projects/carpentaria-highway#:~:text=Stage%201%20will%20include%20upgrade,be%20completed%20by%20mid%2D2024.
https://geoscience.nt.gov.au/gemis/ntgsjspui/bitstream/1/87095/1/Amungee_NW-1H_Basic_WCR.pdf
I would appreciate knowing which Tamboran Chat Board is the best to follow for up to date postings by knowledgeable posters?? I currently have HotCopper on my watch list -- and that chat board seems like a good one. If there are other chat boards that are better -- please let me know -- but there doesn't appear to be any rush -- LOL.
shalamar9 -- I have around 100 of the old Falcon links under my Falcon tab, but most of them now come up as 404 Errors and not found due to age or company updates that have overwritten the older info. I am fairly sure that what you are looking for -- (where POQ indicated acreage valuations depending on the stage of development) is no longer available due to the length of time and new investor presentation updates that replaced that old presentation.
While there may be some minor validity to those very old estimates of what the acreage values might be at each stage, I am fairly sure that any valuation modeling for the Beetaloo will require a fairly large number of additional factors that any potential buyer for Falcon's one million acres would be assessing. While comparison's to other sales price per acre may have some import -- the limited number of shale plays in Australia would severely limit that particular criteria as compared to a company selling acreage in the Barnett shale with lots of side by side comparisons.
Here are just a "FEW" of the other factors that any buyer will have to do a great deal of due diligence on before looking hard at making an offer to Falcon for all or part of Falcon's one million acres:
1. Time frame from date of purchase to significant cash flows, and total time frame commitment;
2. Commercial gas flows proven, at what rate, and total bookable reserve potential;
3. Domestic and international market rates over the short and longer term;
4. Current state of overall infrastructure for road access and environmental concerns - like frack water disposal;
5. Overall Governmental support or hinderance with regulations;
6. Number of wells and capital requirements before break-even (this one is critical -- as any buyer for Falcon's 22% will have to have very deep pockets for their share of new wells, new roads, new gathering pipelines, new pumping stations -- until the value of 22% of the gas sales is offsetting all of those forward costs and the buyer will be at cash flow positive);
7. A net present value calculation to determine if the return over the next couple of decades is worth the current risk.
Thanks WW -- as your thinking is bang on.
As you and I have mentioned a few times -- the brilliance of the new opt in or opt out of 6400 acre blocks that POQ negotiated into this new Joint Operating Agreement is an absolute game changer for Falcon.
This addition to the JOA means we cannot be forced out with excessive spending by the other JOA partners, and I believe that it sets Falcon up to be taken out earlier at a reasonable price point. I honestly don't think that B.S. will want to be talking to any of his big player connections in Texas without having some formula to get rid of this pesky opt in or opt out clause -- by taking Falcon out completely??
This opt in or opt out clause should also help establish a reasonable price point for Falcon to exit the Beetaloo, as Falcon can just continue under the current opt in or opt out formula if the offer isn't reasonable. Then we just have to figure out what the heck to do with the Karoo -- LOL.