Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
Happy New Year WW, as this one coming in one day looks very good.
Just something to consider in regards to whether Falcon is in the Beetaloo for more than just the next couple of years versus your thoughts on Falcon raising funds for on-going development and continued participation in the Beetaloo well into the future.
Here is a hypothetical situation where Brian Sheffield -- who is more than likely in the Beetaloo to make another few $billion! Just for fun -- let's say that BS has to go out to raise $400 or $500 million for continued expansion in the Beetaloo around 2025 or a bit later -- after the Pilot Program has proven up true commercial gas production. What happens when B.S. goes to the big Texan investment banks (that have raised $billions for his old Paisley company and Pioneer, Apache and others in the Permian, Haynesville and Barnett shales) and they ask him who his partners are in the Beetaloo?? Then B.S. has to tell the big investment firms that his partners for developing the Beetaloo are two very junior companies with market caps under $300 or $400 million and very little working capital going forward??
Just maybe -- in the next couple of years B.S. might be better off talking to a few of his industry buddies with very deep pockets and pointing them in the direction of taking out one or both of those junior companies -- with my vote being ours :-)
As most of you have already noticed -- I am the only Falcon investor that is allowed to post to this Falcon chat board. I have taken this board private and if you would like to post you will only have to give me a few thousand Falcon shares to get back on -- LOL.
All kidding aside -- I would like to wish everyone all the Best for 2023 -- which is finally shaping up to be our break out year. I think I might have said the same thing for the past ten years, but this year finally has a seriously talented operations crew in the JOA -- that should get us to commercial flows by Spring. I was somewhat concerned in the past that there wasn't going to be a second one km horizontals drilled right away -- just in case one of the two was somewhat like the Amungee H1 well that Origin drilled. After finding out more about the entire team now involved in the Amungee H2 well -- I am very confident that this team will get this well flowing commercially on their first go at it.
I have attached a year old link below, that is worth a quick read, as it gives a bit more detail on Faron Thibodeax -- Tambo's COO, along with a description of his drilling and completion team -- which is much larger than I thought. Until doing some research into Faron and how his completion team operates -- I didn't know how hands on this kind of drilling and fracking team really was in all phases of the well completion process.
I was more or less under the assumption that when Origin hired the Ensign 963 rig to drill the first Amungee H1 well, and thereafter hired Schlumberger to do the fracking on that same well -- that Origin more or less left it up to those two professional operators to make most of the decisions on drilling the horizontal section and completing the fracking.
With Faron's five member team, (that also includes additional members like David Close, Alexander Cote, and Tom Layman), they were all actively involved in every single step of the drilling the Amungee H2 with the Silver City rig. With constant data and cameras in place this team can fine tune the movements of the drill bit to make sure that a perfectly smooth well bore is completed before the well bore was cased and cemented securely in place. This same team will also be fully involved in the fracking process -- when Schlumberger or Haliburton is brought in for the up to 24 fracking stages. This team will use the rock geology to determine the exact placement of each frack -- rather than just even spacing that might occur without such a talented completion team in place. Cheers everyone!!!
https://www.proactiveinvestors.ca/companies/news/957013/tamboran-resources-to-accelerate-development-with-cootechnical-team-appointment-957013.html
Many thanks Hardrock -- as the ProActive link you just posted is making the New Year look at lot brighter. Now it is time for you to take some golf lessons -- LOL.
At the 4 minute and 50 second point -- Riddle clearly states that:
Tamboran "will be mobilizing the completion equipment in the next week" and further states that Tamboran "hopes to be in position to pump the first of 24 stimulation stages in the Amungee 2 sometime the middle part of the first quarter" and "all going well with clean up and weather" -- they "hope to be reporting initial flow results by sometime towards the end of the first quarter of next year".
A very nice Christmas present and what looks like a much happier New Year for all. Now for a large scotch -- cheers!!!
Hardrock wrote: "Never suspect when reasonably sure." Stanislav Jerzy Lec
Interesting comment, but even Googling up the above I couldn't find a reference to Stanislav for that quote -- even though the statement is somewhat clear -- LOL.
Since you know intimately the entire fracking process and seem to maybe have a few connections you can tap into as to what is happening on the ground at the Amungee site -- what is your sense of this new announcement that weather is a problem and the fracking delayed??
Up until these two announcements from Falcon and Tamboran -- both parties had been very clear that since the Amungee site sits right on the paved Carpenteria Hwy -- weather was not going to be any issue at all with fracking. Now, they are both talking about getting the fracking underway when the weather permits. Do you have any insight as to what the real story is (or might be) that would be causing another darn delay??
My only thoughts on this could be the size, weight and number of fracking pump trucks that have to progress from the paved road oiver to the actual well pad -- which looks to be about 300 meters in from the paved Carpenteria Hwy. Could that short distance be the reason for this darn delay or is it something else that has them sitting on their butts and twiddling their thumbs for a few months?
Great press releases from Tambo and Falcon -- with both the horizontal section and number of proposed fracks increased.
However, all the press releases, including the Cenkos update just out SOUND great, but they all state that fracking will get under way in first quarter of 2023 "depending on weather conditions". What's with that -- as Seinfeld would say -- as both Tamboran and Falcon have clearly stated that weather would not be a consideration with the Amungee site sitting right on a paved Carpenteria highway. After five long years of waiting for any flow rates from the Amungee -- why not just wait some more -- just so the share price recent gains can be driven back down to the bottom while we wait again!!!
With absolutely no updates on any front regarding drilling or fracking -- Falcon shares are following the normal pattern of giving back some of the recent gains. It usually takes many buyers purchasing tens of thousands of shares -- to move the needle upwards on Falcon, but only a few sellers dumping just a few thousand shares to knock the price back down -- sheesh.
Wishing all Falcon holders, (especially the long term knuckleheads who have hung on way too long -- like yours truly) all the best over the holidays, and a much more prosperous New Year. I believe that 2023 will finally be the year where the true potential of the Beetaloo becomes clear, and Falcon's one million acres, (with the lowest ORRI), finally moves permanently on an upwards trajectory!
One speculative thought to start the holiday season. For those of us long term holders that would like to see Falcon get bought out of the Beetaloo completely (fairly soon -- so we have some time left to enjoy the rewards) there may be some potential for that to happen sooner than later??
I believe that Brian Sheffield will be in the Beetaloo for the long haul -- as that is where he can turn his $100 million into $billions, but Sheffield will need deep pocket and long term gas development companies as partners to see that happen. Falcon is a holding company and doesn't meet what Sheffield will need going past 2025, as Falcon just doesn't have the financial resources that will be required to commit to a 10 or 20 year development program. Sheffield may end up influencing his friends in Texas -- like Apache, Pioneer, H&P, and others -- into taking Falcon out completely at a discount in order to ramp up production?? That would be my New Year's wish -- so that golf in Dublin could happen next year or 2024 at the latest.
For any that didn't get a chance to see it -- catch Zelensky's address to the US Congress on Youtube -- as it has been nicely compared to Churchill's awesome address to Congress two weeks after Japan struck Pearl Harbour.
I did a little bit more digging online into the different casing sizes and what I found just reconfirms what Hardrock posted, but maybe a bit more in layman terms --- LOL.
"5.5" casing allows the operator to attain the pumping rates and pressures desired to place larger frac stages. It also can allow larger production tubing to be placed in the completed well to accommodate higher flow rates -- but this appears to be a lesser consideration".
As Hardrock mentioned -- one of the main reasons why anyone would use 4.5” casing is that they either do not have the rig capable of drilling the bigger hole to TD and/or they want to save costs. If the well is just for exploration purposes and not future production -- cost savings are important.
Many thanks Hardrock. Only about half of what you said made sense to me, but the other half does answer my question -- I think LOL.
Would Tamboran be thinking that this current Amungee well is going to be a "development well" more so than exploration and appraisal well by using 5.5 inch casing?? I believe (from Riddle's investor presentations) -- that Tamboran is thinking that if this first Amungee well is successful then -- it will be put on full production when the next three wells (including two 3 km horizontals using the H&P rig) are also put on production and fed into the Carpenteria pipeline to the McArther mine.
Nice timing scinceday1 -- as the Falcon is up to 13 cents just over a million shares!!! Now -- if it would just get back to the 18 cent level that I bought more in the spring -- I would feel so bad about ignoring my own adage -- LOL.
since***1 -- So that was your order for 400,000 shares sitting there all day -- LOL.
I think you are right -- as this could be the last time we see these kind of lows with all the insider purchases, and new found optimism from the Texan expertise finally gaining traction in the Beetaloo. Good luck tomorrow -- as there should be a few day traders wanting out before we get the next news release and then we should keep moving on up from there.
https://oilfieldbasics.com/2018/10/18/production-casing-tubing/
Hardrock -- just a quick couple of questions that you may be able to shed some light on.
The casing that is being planned for our current one km horizontal Amungee well is 5.5 inch casing -- whereas I believe that Empire is only using 4.5 inch casing for their current 2 km well that is being drilled. I believe, but am not sure exactly why, that the larger casing should give us better flow rates than the smaller casing -- is that correct?? There has been some suggestions that Empire should be using the larger 5.5 inch casing too if they want to get the best results from that 2 km horizontal -- is that correct?? Last question -- do you know if Santos used the smaller casing for their two Tanumbirini wells or the larger 5.5 inch casing?? -- Thanks for any clarity on the differences between the two sizes.
Really significant purchase announced today for Tom Layman. When you have a shale gas expert, who has fracked over 4000 shale gas wells, spending over a $100 thousand of his own funds to add a pretty large block of free trading Falcon shares -- this is probably the best insider purchase EVER. Tom was smarter than his old boss -- as he bought over a million shares for 11 cents Cdn or less -- when BS bought his large block of Falcon shares at 20 cents Cdn. He is also much smarter than I am -- as I added a bunch in the spring at 18 cents Cdn. just after BS paid 20 cents -- and totally forgot my own adage that "you can always always buy Falcon cheaper" -- LOL.
Recent share purchases -- not options -- as posted to INK, the insider website for the TSX
Gregory Smith – Non - Executive Director --recent purchase 150,000 (total shares owned 920,000)
Tom Layman - Non - Executive Director -- recent purchase 870,000 (total shares owned 1,120,000)
Thanks Hardrock -- as fracking at least the next Amungee well and hopefully two by next summer is the most critical for Falcon -- and with good results Ms Fyles will have an easier path to getting the other states on board.
What part of Australia do you most live and work in?? Plus -- hoping your a golfer, but your travel distance to Dublin will be one of the longest -- LOL.
Thanks Origin789 -- as anytime the politicians start bending over and sticking their heads up there arssses for the naysayers and greenies -- I get real nervous after going through the Pepper Inquiry and all the other roadblocks.
Those comments by Ms Fyles are a little more consistent with what has led to approvals for both the current EMP, as well as the much larger EMP recently approved -- that will encompass what will hopefully become the Pilot Production program starting in 2024/25.
Just a quick follow up Hardrock.
While the Labor gov't could potentially put a stop the planned fracking on this current Amungee well -- it would seem to me to go totally against all the approvals (like the EMP and other sign offs already by the resources minister in the NT) that are already in place for fracking this current well.
It would put the NT gov't in some legal jeopardy for the all the expense and work currently under way, and would give the minister in charge a serious lack of confidence from all the companies currently spending ten's of millions to help the NT with jobs and revenue going forward. I am hoping all this fracas is about actual production and not exploration -- as there is time to get the new regs in place for actual production most likely??
Hardrock -- "Labor has said fracking will not commence until the regulatory overhaul is complete".
Do you know if this new report requiring all emissions to be offset and stopping all fracking until the overhaul is complete is going to stop the fracking of the current Amungee well being drilled?? There won't be any fracking of the second well until August on the second well, so there is time for new regulations to be enacted, but if the fracking is stopped on the current well -- then that would be another disaster and pretty much par for the course as far as Falcon's history in the Beetaloo is concerned.
scinceday1 -- we should get a better idea on timelines when Tamboran gives an update on the completion of the horizontal section somewhere close to the end of December. That update from Tambo should include when the fracking will start, with hopefully some initial indications on how long Tambo expects the 20 stage frack will take.
Once the fracking is complete and the well starts to clean up (with a lot of the water/frack fluids getting pushed back to the surface) -- we should get some indications on the first flows within a few days. Then will be further updates along the way with the most important being the sixty day flow test with a clear indication of the decline rate -- which we know from previous velkerri B wells should be fairly decent.
Thanks Rich, as there is a fair bit of clarification on the future timelines in this MST Access report that are worth reading from beginning to end.
Personally -- I am really hoping that we see something closer to Riddles heavy promotional campaign calling for 5 mm cu/ft per day from this current 2H well -- as opposed to POQ's more conservative estimates of 3 mm cu/ft per day. I think that if the results are in that 5 mm range -- that should help to push all three partners towards a second well on the existing well pad -- which would give us flow results by August of 2023. If the partners don't drill the 3H well from the existing pad -- it is very doubtful that we will see any results from the second of Origin's two remaining well commitment for another whole darn year as per this section of the report.
"The Amungee 3H well is proposed to be drilled post the completion of A2H. Timing is dependent on where the team
decides to locate the well. If it is drilled where ORG originally planned, it will likely be completed by mid-year using the
rig that drilled A2H. If the TBN team decide to relocate the drill site, the well could potentially be drilled by the H&P rig
forecast to arrive mid-year and thus well completion would slip into the second half of the calendar year (particularly
as it is likely it would require new water bores to be drilled and six months of environmental water testing)".
Another very interesting update from this report shows an estimate of around $25 million for Falcon's share of the 4H and 5H -- 3 km long horizontals at the Amungee expanded site that would be drilled in late 2023 and 2024. Since Falcon will have close to 18 million in Aussie dollars still in the bank at that time and has another $30 million in additional carry -- then Falcon may not require any future dilution for a couple more years?? (FO has also earned an additional $30m carry on future well costs as part of the “binding letter of intent with TBN and Sheffield. Thus, TBN and Sheffield will fund an additional $6.75m of well costs, or $3.4m each).
"Given A4H and A5H are proposed to have 3,000m laterals with 50m fracture spacing (60 fracks) the well costs are
forecast to be circa $50m-$55m per well; so a ~$43m funding cost for TBN for both wells (38.75% of $110m).
The question then is will FO participate given both wells will cost Falcon ~$25m. If FO choose not to participate TBN
could potentially have to fund 50% of the wells, or $55m".
Thanks Iaminow -- as all three of these short videos attached to the link you just posted are excellent and worth everyone taking a few minutes. Even the VP for Helmerich and Payne was interviewed at the Amungee site with the Silver City rig flying their flag over the rig in the background.
Interesting that Joel is committing 100% of Tamboran's gas to the East Coast market -- no matter how high the LNG price goes for the rest of Asia. Kind of makes you wonder if Joel is being 100% truthful -- LOL.
These videos and Joel Riddle's non-stop promotional touring about their coup in the Beetaloo are as dprussky stated -- the main reason why Tamboran is moving higher and Falcon is falling lower. Maybe time to think about switching over to Tamboran like dprussky did before Falcon makes another all time low???