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This is just speculation on my part, and I would appreciate other posters thoughts on this -- as I think this could be an important consideration down the line -- if POQ can't get this deal done in time. I am wondering if the Northern Territory gov't will even approve this proposed deal between Origin and Tamboran??
Joel Riddle and Tamboran most likely are not who the Northern Territory would prefer to have almost 90% control over the Beetaloo?? The NT government is investing hundreds of millions in road and pipeline infrastructure and is now counting of the Beetaloo to be both a job creator and tax revenue generator for decades to come.
However, when you look at Riddles recent track record of dealing with governments and pastoral owners -- you have to wonder what the N.T. is going to do. Riddle has a dismal track record with the Federal gov't and has refused three separate Senate requests to testify about the Beetaloo funding, and may soon find himself held in contempt by the Senate. Riddles has dismal track record in dealing with the pastoral lease holders and has threatened lawsuits instead of dealing up front like Origin carefully did. Then there was Tamboran's legal fight 2 years ago with Santos -- trying to gain 100% of EP 161, which they lost with Tamboran getting shut back down to 25%!!!
All of which creates a very antagonistic way of dealing with Beetaloo issues it seems to me. This must have Manson and the NT gov't wondering if the N.T. really wants this kind of operator's track record -- when it comes to signing off on the deal with Origin??
VM -- just to clarify your statement: "he would not let anyone know what he is feeling or behaving like a hot mad Irishman".
POQ is staying totally quiet, and what you are reading is just posters hypothesizing on what he might or might not be thinking. I am fairly sure that POQ is much too busy to be doing anything but working diligently behind the scenes with Joe Nally and others, and we most likely won't have any real clarity until the 30 day deadline is reached.
Wet -- now that we know you are POQ -- you will have to be a bit more reticent in your posts -- just so you don't give the opposition too much info before you are ready to attack -- LOL.
On a more serious note -- you really have to wonder why Tambo and Sheffield didn't come to Falcon with just a little less greed in their proposed agreement with Origin?? Under their proposed purchase from Origin -- both Tambo and Sheffield would have ended up with 38.75% each in the Beetaloo -- and by ignoring Falcon (the original developer and holder of all three permits) Falcon is left out to dry with the same old 22.5%.
If Tambo and Sheffield had been very smart -- they would have taken the ROFR into account and offered Falcon a relatively small 5.25% from each of their greedy side agreement with Origin, and then all three parties would have been equal one third owners in OUR permits.
Stebol, I think you are most likely correct with only the notice deadline being 30 days with possibly more time after that to complete.
However, my note of caution is primarily mentioned because POQ will absolutely have to have all his ducks in row before he exercises the Right of First Refusal. He may have a bit more time after the 30 days to send Origin their $60 million in Aussie dollars and start work on the two horizontals, but he cannot even remotely think of exercising that ROFR without all that financing guaranteed to flow as and when POQ needs it.
Make no mistake -- in that I have my fingers (and now toes) crossed that POQ is able exercise the ROFR under the JV agreement from 2014, as I believe this is absolutely the best direction and best option for Falcon's future in the Beetaloo. My note of caution is purely about the amount of work and the amount of money that needs to be solidly in place before POQ can exercise the option -- with only three weeks left for all that work to be structurally committed.
BtoB -- while I agree that this first right of refusal is significant, (and it gives POQ a decent shot at changing the outcome to a better position for all Falcon shareholders), we also need to take into account the very limited time frame involved.
In order for POQ to actually exercise the FROR in three weeks time -- he will need to have either a new E&P player stepping up; or alternatively a high net worth investor; or a large investment bank; -- that are fully prepared to back whatever position that Falcon takes.
While the actual payments to Origin and the start of the next two horizontals could be delayed a tiny bit -- the contracts backing those plays will have to signed, sealed and delivered inside of three weeks time. That means that the right party for whatever kind of agreement that POQ and BOD decides to move forward on -- while not only have to be found, but the final agreements legally drafted and signed off on in an almost ridiculously short period of time.
Therefore, a note of caution on anything getting done in this very short window is probably warranted.
Wet, I am fairly sure that whatever financing deal that POQ can get arranged in the very short time that is left -- that it will have to include enough funds to at least get the drilling started on the next two horizontals.
The NT would most likely require that under the licenses and the approved EMP's that some progress should be shown on those two wells. I am not positive, but I think that under the Tambo/Sheffield proposal that some of that work may even get started soon?? Fracking could most likely get delayed until the spring if necessary, but I believe that some work needs to shown as moving forward during the next three to four months. I could be wrong too -- as I have been wrong many many times over the past dozen years -- LOL.
Wet -- if Riddle and Sheffield were smart -- they would beg POQ's forgiveness by offering Falcon some iron clad guarantees of protection against any future takeover attempts, along with another 22.5% of the Beetaloo!!!
They are at very significant risk right now of losing everything they have squeezed out of Origin in this giveaway deal by Origin and be right back to only having the EP 136 Maverick well on their ledger -- as Santos may not go forward on EP 161 anytime soon.
dprussky, the biggest reason this MAY not be good for Falcon shareholders is the fact that the entire deal was done without any input, consultation, or agreement with Falcon.
This is a very clear indication that both Riddle and Sheffield don't think that Falcon is worth even taking the time toi talk to or to offer Falcon an option to increase Falcon's share of the Beetaloo in return for agreeing not to exercise the Right of First Refusal. This is a fairly clear indication that Falcon is not even worth the time to consult -- so what does that tell us Falcon shareholders (not you anymore which is a shame after so many years) about how they will treat Falcon in the future when Tambo and Sheffield control everything??
Beetaloo,
I am fairly sure that there were no behind the scenes agreements with POQ involved whatsoever!! If there were discussions before hand -- then there would have been no need for Falcon to put out the press release letting EVERYONE know that Falcon has a right of first refusal.
Rich, WetWater posted that earlier today based on Tamboran's report where this was included on page 37 I think WW said. Take a look at WW's posts from earlier today and it is near the end of the paragraph.
kmj -- great post and I sincerely hope you are correct -- as proving up commerciality will certainly improve Falcon's position going forward. My view on Riddle and Sheffield has a lot to do with not even giving POQ the courtesy of a call or overview of how they were going to be driving this bus forward without our 8 year relationship with Origin even being acknowledged...
kmjliveson wrote: " if the dust and emotions settle on all this and this TBN/Sheffied JV takes over from Origin, not sure exactly how Falcon is worse off".
Further to WetWaters comments -- just my very limited take on the risks going forward if the Tambo deal concludes.
I think the biggest concern with any completion of the Tamboran/Sheffied deal with Origin is primarily about Falcon's future after the completion of the next two horizontals, (and maybe the two additional ones). I personally believe that Joe Riddle is a Bruner wannabe and Sheffield may not be a great deal different -- as he will be driving the bus going forward,. I don't think either of them see Falcon surviving for more than another year or two at the most.
If their deal with Origin completes -- those two will be controlling every aspect and expenditure going forward and it will be in their interest to see Falcon's share get reduced or given up completely. With Origin as the bus driver -- we had a big national Aussie conglomerate in charge -- and while they would still have majority control -- they were too big and too public to rollover and crush Falcon without serious public perception problems. Riddle and Sheffield have already shown that they don't think that Falcon (who still controls the three Core Beetaloo permits) was even worth the effort of being included in any of these discussions and you can be sure that they will have multiple ways to grind Falcon's interest down from 22.5%.
If the deal with Tambo/sheffield gets finalized -- then I will more than likely be looking to sell 90% of my Falcon shares at some point next year -- when the next two (or possibly four) wells prove up commerciality and we get that bump back to that 30 cent or higher level on the news.
WW --- any idea on what this comment by Tambo means??
"It is uncertain whether Falcon will exercise its purchase option. If it does, Tamboran will still be required to complete the Transition irrespective of Falcon's position".
Hey Wet, glad you got that one figured out correctly as I looking at the numbers and figured that the next two wells would one way or another be required. However, that doesn't preclude your suggestion of just a financial investment for a non-oil person, company, institution. When I read the tea leaves on Origin basically moving out of all oil and gas exploration activities -- it makes me think that Falcon has allot more options for possibly continuing on without a Santos or Tamboran -- especially since Tom Layman remains a very key BOD and consultant going forward?? Waiting another 3 plus weeks is going to really difficult -- LOL.
dprussky -- while you may be right about this deal ending up in court at some point if Falcon decides to take up it's option -- it most certainly won't be because Falcon did not make any offers regarding Origin's Farm Down intentions last year. The Farm Down that Origin was looking to do was exactly that A FARM DOWN -- and not an outright abandonment of their entire JV agreement -- so that will in no way effect Falcon's moves going forward.
Oleo -- I can chip in $1 for the Karoo and even do the CFO job, but if there is more than $2 to manage -- there are no guarantees that the CFO will stay honest as I have to make up my Falcon losses somewhere -- LOL.
Oleo -- if you firmly believe your last statement -- you should consider selling your Falcon stock and making a low ball bid for the Karoo. We saw yesterday -- how Origin was willing to give up 8 years of hard work in the Beetaloo for a $90 million dollar loss -- so you might get the Karoo for pennies on the dollar??
Hi nerves, schlemiel very nicely posted the entire Cenkos Report at 8:14 on Tues. morning -- so if you scroll back to page 2 on our Board you will see the report there.
Oilcountry -- I share your concerns about Sheffield not being viewed as our white knight. Anyone looking closely at the Tamboran Term sheet (link below) will see that Sheffield is driving this bus and is ending up with huge royalties plus 38% of the Beetaloo for peanuts. My vote would be for that illusive rabbit.