The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Waiting for any kind of positive news is probably still a couple of weeks away, but even a hint that gas is flowing would make the waiting a little less anxious. Even someone lighting a fart at the Amungee site would be welcome news -- LOL.
I am fairly sure the Mr. Riddle is keeping the lid on even the slightest bit of news leaking from the Amungee H2 drill site until such a time as he can announce commercial flows are proven over a 30 plus day flow. Tamboran has burned through so much cash since last Fall that they don't have enough cash left to meet their recent Origin deal that requires Tamboran to complete the very last well under the original Origin 9 well Joint Venture.
Tamboran will have to go back to the market and do another funding raise -- which will dilute the existing shareholders again -- bringing the total number of shares outstanding well past the current 1.4 billion shares. Therefore, i think that Mr. Riddle is pushing the Pioneer completion team to use every single trick they can to make sure the flow rate is at his minimum touted rate of 5 mm cu/ft per day.
Mr. Riddle badly needs to release great news to the market in a few weeks' time -- so that next funding raise is at a much higher price than the 20 cents Aussie that Tamboran is trading at currently. If the flow rates aren't up to snuff -- then the next funding raise will require a much larger dilution to all existing shareholders and that brings up a very big question about what will Brian Sheffield do??
Will Brian Sheffield step in and participate on the next round of funding or will he play hardball and require a much larger piece of the Beetaloo in return for his continued support?? Something to contemplate while we wait for a few more weeks!!
On a technical issue -- I can no longer get onto our Falcon Chat Board using Google Chrome as my main web browser. For the past week -- all I was getting was "Bad Request" on every attempt to log on the LSE Falcon chat board. I now have Microsoft Bing added as new web browser -- and that seems to work just fine.
JS490 -- even though Falcon was down on the news (which seems to be a pattern with this stock) -- this news is as you said was "very good news" indeed. This was the last major hurdle that has been overhanging any final Pilot Production plans -- as without this final NT approval -- no commercial gas sales were going to happen.
There was a great deal more opposition to this NT approval than just the Green idiots (who would rather see China, Indonesia and India keep building coal fired plants for ten times the CO2 than have one molecule come out of the Beetaloo to help stop more coal fired plants in Asia). Many of very rich and influential pastoralists, alone with a number of indigenous bands were against this approval, but common sense and the lengthy Justice Pepper report has helped eliminate this second last obstacle to commercial gas sales. The first obstacle still has to be overcome -- which is commercial gas flows from the Amungee H2 well, but that appears to be getting a bit closer with the recent flare shot from Derrick.
We are extremely fortunate that the Beetaloo is in a very remote, sp****ly populated area, and the NT with only 250,000 total population that badly needs the added royalties and job prospects that the Beetaloo represents -- so this final approval (by a Labour Gov't no less) is worth an extra ounce or two of scotch -- cheers everyone!!
Thanks for the post on production tubing Hardrock, but a just a quick question on why two different handles now on the LSE Board?? You were posting under Hardrock_Fracker, but now your handle shows no caps and no underscore with just --hardrockfracker -- so did you change this for easier typing or is there two different people posting??
Agreed Longknife -- as I am really hoping this lack of a decent flare and dearth of news from the Amungee site is just the Tamboran/Pioneer team working hard on the production tubing to clear this well and get the flows they were anticipating?? If we come in under 3mm -- your estimate on 5 cents might be too high -- as we will have at least 100 million shares trying to get out -- (and that is just from the holders on this Board -- LOL).
With the TSX down almost 15% -- the discrepancy with the LSE price is coming back into alignment. Some of the day traders and nervous holders are taking very small profits on the recent run-up on the TSX -- which was maybe too soon given we have absolutely no idea what the fuxx is going on at the Amungee site??
I am starting to get very nervous about whether Tamboran's estimates on this Amungee H2 well are going to be even close to that 5 mm cu.ft. per day now. As Hardrock said in his post this morning "the jury is still out" and with the flaring that is going on now being "hardly visible on the swir filter" -- you have to wonder if this is another Beetaloo fiasco in the making.
The good news is -- Falcon has one more kick at the can if this well doesn't perform, as Tamboran won't quit at this point with the H&P rig now in Darwin, but poor results on this Amungee H2 would be very very hard to overcome!!!
Current TSX price is 21 cents Cdn. on 330,000 shares trading hands.
I think we are starting to see a bit more FOMO (fear of missing out) come into play?? Generally, in the past we would see a small pull back after a nice run late last week, but it appears than more punters are realizing that if this current Amungee well performs as expected -- then the difference between 16 cents or 21 cents is pretty minor in the longer run-up potential for Falcon's stock.
Tamboran is not getting much of this recent stock price movement, but that might just be a result of their recent financial update that shows something in the neighborhood of $30 million in cash reserves. This cash reserve level doesn't appear to be enough to cover their next and last Origin obligated well -- whereas Falcon has $16 million in the bank and no obligations to contribute until we get to the Pilot production phase of the program.
Scargs --- I am sure WetWater can give us a bit more detail on the fantastic well he was describing, but it is not in the Beetaloo, but rather is a separate investment that WW has. I would think it is somewhere in the Permian or Barnett Basins, but that is just a guess. WW -- I would be interested to know if those huge volumes you describe are from a shale well or a conventional well??
Origin789 -- I am fairly sure that Falconman is correct about Wealth Masters, as the Rob McCaulay you referenced was a Bruner employee and has been gone ever since POQ and John Craven came on board a dozen years ago. In 2010 -- at the AGM in Vancouver, Bruner was allowed to resign, but in effect he was kicked out by Burlingame's CEO and Viktor. This was when Bruner was about to sell off almost 40% of Falcon to some Chinese investors for pennies -- in order to keep up his extravagant lifestyle, but Burlingame and Viktor had reached their breaking point with Bruners constant dilutions.
Marsh -- you are exactly correct as no news for four long weeks will see some downside push coming from some of the weaker hands for sure. However, four weeks is a pretty short time to wait -- especially in comparison to the years we have waited so far -- LOL.
I wouldn't be too surprised to see most of these recent gains holding much better than it has in the past -- due to the fact there will most likely be more buyers than sellers over the next four weeks, as Falcon's market cap of $200 million is still pretty low compared to the $400 million spent on Falcon permits to day. Plus, if there is any leaks on flow rates before the four weeks are up -- we will see millions of shares trading hands -- pushing the share price much closer to our old post moratorium high of 40 cents Cdn.
ITguy --- I just went back to look at Hardrock's Sentinel post from early last week (with virtually nothing visible by way of a real flare) and compared it to Derrick's Sentinel shot from today. I just wanted to be sure that I am looking at the right spot on Derrick's Sentinel shot?? There is a slightly more visible and slightly more pronounced Orangish blob in the bottom left corner -- that appears to be larger than anything else to date -- so is that orangish blob the flaring???
This assessment on the Empire Board by SmallFish -- is in reply to another poster that was asking for his views on Empire versus the rest of the Beetaloo. I haven't been following Empire too closely, but his comments reflect a good part of my take on some of the issues that Empire might be facing.
1. "On a per well spacing unit EEG land is less than half the depth of a normally prospective shale well. A reasonable and still optimistic view of EEG wells are that at best they will produce half of what an EP136 well would. Perhaps 65% of what an Amungee well will. Yes they're cheaper, but production is the long lever on the economics.
2. How do you plan on getting the gas out? Those bases appear covered by TBN.
3. The scale of the asset limits the development valuation. Only a sliver, at most 80,000 acres appears prospective and is bisected by a major fault that will eat capital faster than the cookie monster eats cookies.
4. Spatially the lands contain less than 5% of the area and, at that it contains half the gas on a per unit area that the rest of the basin does. Sorry, but you asked".
Otd2000 -- some reasonable volume again this morning on the TSX which is holding onto the modest jump from late yesterday, and it only has to go another couple of pennies higher to get my small holding back to break-even.
Hopefully, this small price increase over the past day would be on speculation that good news is coming soon. However, this kind of small price appreciation also happens with Falcon when the seller volumes have almost completely dried up, (like we have seen over the past two weeks). Then, any new buyer that is trying to build a decent position -- is forced to start bidding a penny or two higher.
The real bonus that is indicated with this nice move up on less than 750 thousand shares -- is just how high the share price might go when the really good news is finally released. The volumes will most likely be in the millions of shares traded, as investment banks and brokerages get on board again, with hopefully a nice doubling or more on the share price from here??
If anyone knows the answer as to "IF" we will actually have flaring when the production tubing is fully in place or when we will ever see flaring of gas from this well -- it would be appreciated?? It would be nice to know if we actually have gas or just hot air is this darn Amungee H2 well.
Thanks for the satellite shot 805slo. Maybe -- before the next pass of the Sentinel Satellite -- you could pop by the Amungee H2 site and hold up a burning match or lighter -- just to get us excited that maybe there is some gas leaking out of that $40 million dollar hole in the ground -- LOL.
Hey Wet -- just for clarity -- when you and Hardrock are referencing a shorter "lateral" -- you are just switching "lateral" for "horizontal" and are not talking about just a "vertical" well -- correct??
I believe the logistics of doing a shorter 1km horizontal for the 3H well is now the current best bet going forward and not a 3 km horizontal until the 4H is drilled. (with both the Amungee 2H and the 3H put onto production at some point -- hopefully in late 2024).
It will be very interesting to hear what Santos decides to do on Tanumburini Station now that the NT Supreme Court has ruled on complete access to all pastoral stations? Santos still has a 75% interest in the permits where they drilled the Tanumbirini H1 and H2 wells that only flowed around 3 mm cf/d on each of the two one km horizontal wells. However, the first vertical DFIT tests that Santos ran across all three B shales in the velkerri zone -- indicated a test flow rate that was in excess of 10 mm cf/d on initial results from all three shale zones -- which was a stellar indication of what the Velkerri B shale has in place.
I am sure that Santos will be watching carefully how the Amungee H2 flows with the Pioneer teams US shale expertise and the larger 5.5 inch casing that Faron Thibodeaux has used for the first time in the Beetaloo. If the flow results are as good as we are expecting -- then Santos might find that the Beetaloo's 3% CO2 levels a bit more enticing than the Barossa offshore field's closer to 20% CO2 levels??
VillaMaria -- that reference in the ABC News article to Tamboran drilling a 3 km horizontal using the new H&P rig did seem to refer to Tamboran's EP 136 where Tamboran has already drilled the Maverick vertical leg. However, I am very sure that Tamboran will have to complete the second of two "one km long horizontals" on Falcon's permits before they can move the new H&P rig over to EP 136.
If Tamboran doesn't move forward on the last of the two contracted "horizontal" wells under the original Origin agreement -- then Falcon would likely be in a legal position to dissolve the current JOA that all parties entered into last year. Therefore, it is more than likely that the second one km horizontal on Falcon lands moves forward later this summer first -- with the Maverick 3 km horizontal possibly right after -- which could still be drilled before the end of 2023??
ilvelo -- no the H&P rig will be used on the second of the two wells that Tamboran committed to under the Origin purchase.
Falcon is owed one more well under the original Origin JV -- that is to be fully paid for by Tamboran. Tamboran will move to that second Falcon well before going back to EP136 -- due to that obligation. Plus Tamboran doesn't have excess available funds for anything but the next Falcon well before they will need to do another placement -- (hopefully at much higher prices due to the fantastic Amungee H2 flow results -- that may be coming this year sometime -- LOL).
PS -- clik on the download shown in blue on the previous link to read the Tamboran Press release on this win at the NT Supreme Court regarding access to EP 136.
Thanks Hardrock, Since it has been a month now since the fracking was completed -- it would be nice to know if they have production tubing installed by now, but the silence on all fronts is causing excess scotch consumption -- LOL..
This entire Amungee H2 well process, which is now taking over a half a year to drill and flow -- really makes me wonder how the ex-Pioneer team will ever drill enough wells to make the Beetaloo profitable?? Right now -- this team has a run rate of two wells a year and that doesn't equate to anything but huges losses for years to come.
On better news -- the NT appears to be moving much closer to a final approval for Fracking in the Beetaloo as per this ABC News article:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-19/nt-sreba-beetaloo-basin-fracking-study-complete-/102238532