Member Info for MozzaBezza

I think if you read between the lines of what the CEO said in the last presentation (45m in) there are a few options:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQ_klLRh_eQ&t=3073s

Pre-pay and offtake: This is very standard and there's a lot of money in this category.

Royaltys/Streaming: This costs a bit more than the above but they take more execution risk, so it cuts both ways.

Debt+Equity funding: I think this is most likely, because there will be a variety of players who would cover the whole financing package required of $86m, whereas those above often seem to stop around the $50m mark, so you would need both or, more money on top of this.

"We're not expecting the equity capital markets to cover all of our CAPEX needs" - from the above presentation.

Assuming you believe it, and I can't see a reason not to, this guy/girl linked below said he was told by the CEO that they were negotiating a debt facility with a family office in Monaco, pre-IPO:

https://x.com/ProAIMTrader/status/2039581059038248964?s=20

"Subject to permit approval, Halo is on track to commence site works at Playa Verde before the end of 2026."

Assuming the above happens (likely, because of the ESG aspect of the project and works done so far) that means they clearly expect project funding to be completed relatively soon in order to meet the Final Investment Decision expected by the year end.

The project funding is a part of this FID process and "commencing site works" you would think would also assume a positive FID had been made, so it sounds like that transformational element (project funding) is still due relatively soon.

What I like about this in particular is that it has a very high chance of being approved because if not all of that resouce would be washing onto the beach anyway, taking them back to step one again if they don't approve it.

It's not guaranteed, but if approved the current NPV10 is based on 32Mt of reserves only.

We know we actually are dealing with a total resource of 53Mt on the beach (which gets processed regardless because of how the dredge system works) and then if you add this in you get an extra 100+MT of resource.

All in, you're dealing with a NPV10 that must be ~$400/500m if you add it all up, so it highlights the opportunity with them aiming for starting the plant building in only ~ six months time.

It might only be a little bit, but it's good to see us up today. All done on only 11k shares of volume too, highlighting how the 42% free float is such a big factor in the story here.

If those volumes arrive we'll be heading back upwards very quickly, I think.

I'm very grateful for your kind words - thank you.

The problem you always have with IPOs is that they're so dependant on the speed at which they can attract eyeballs to the story. Regardless of what ever is going on with other parties involved in the background.

On one hand, doing that effectively is more expensive, but on the other hand not doing so can cost you more in equity value than what it would have cost in the first place to turn the PR dial up to 10.

I suspect that a chunk, but probably not all of the pre IPO buyers likely also took some in the full IPO, so a lot of averages assumed to be at the Pre-IPO level will be higher than that. This would make sense too as to why the volumes have dropped back as we've fallen.

Going on Tradingview's volume numbers:

Week one: 7.23m

Week two: 2m

Week three: 2.65m

Week four: 1.52m

Week five (3/5 sessions in): 429k

That's a total of 13.829m shares traded and Tradingview tends to under-count rather than over-count, because it won't always pick up delayed volume after the bell.

If you assume that as we're down 33.33% from the IPO that 66.66% of the volume has been sells over buys, that would give you a rough figure of 9.219m shares sold vs 4.6m bought.

Well, if that's roughly correct, (and it probably is about right if you scan down the trade list) that would cover pretty much the whole of the Pre-IPO stock now.

So of a total free float of 46.2m shares, you've churned through ~9.22m of that, leaving 22m shares who paid 18p in the IPO (not many would want to sell at a loss if they don't need to, but I wouldn't rule out a few having to).

That's then 15m shares left over of the free float which has to go around buyers like me (I have not far off 1m shares), market makers, day traders (not many I bet because our volumes are too low and spreads too wide), etc.

I'd never dream of "calling the bottom", but you can see that the volumes are drying up and that this corresponds well with the details we know from the listing. It feels like it must be around the corner...

Perhaps that will be my epitaph!

Regardless, good luck everyone.

Unfortunately, sometimes circumstances just dictate that you need to sell - emotional or financial reasons can prevail there. At some point, most of us who've been in this game for a while have fallen into either category.

So, the admission document breaks your question down a bit:

MBD Partners SA: 23,415,547, 21.14%

Atacama Investments Limited: 15,610,365, 14.10%

Mr John Bolitho: 14,955,963, 13.50%

C4 Energy Limited1: 8,856,113, 8.00%

Acorn Finance Limited: 3,842,274, 3.47%

Peel Hunt Limited: 3,759,132, 3.39%

Now, of the total float of ~110m shares, ~62.7m are owned by people who are locked in either under AIM Rule 7, or directors via C4 Energy (who agree to also lock in).

Now, if you rummage through the document about 48.7m of that went for "all outstanding loan notes", which seems to be mostly to the top three shareholders, unless some owned a lot of stock prior to entering into a CLN agreement.

110m (total float)-67.2m (locked in stock)- 22m shares placed in the IPO at 18p

=22m shares left over

Of that 22m, they did a Pre-IPO round for 9.5m shares at ~10.2p by the look of it, so that takes us to 12.5m shares

Then add in directors owning a bit, fees to brokers, PR, services, etc, and then any legacy holders (who can't own loads or they'd have to declare too for being over 3% of the float) I think that probably covers most of the bases.

Look, this absolutely isn't without risk. It clearly has them - I suspect that the BOD is the main one not the project, jurisdiction, etc,

The question is, if they can get it to a proper "development stage", I.E. Secure project funding... Is the market cap too cheap?

I think it is at £12m and should sit more in the £40-50m level.

I totally accept it has risks though and regardless of what happens wish all of us the best of luck!

Right now it's showing the down side of having a small free-float of stock (~42% of the float), although this will cut both ways if/when it moves the other way.

If you look at how the average daily volumes have been gently drifting down, I think any sellers are likely running on fumes now and they can only sell once.

Plus, almost anyone selling now would be doing so at a loss, so that will likely lessen any appetite to sell down here (probably why the volumes are gently drying up).

Lots of key catalysts here, although project funding is clearly the biggest one, followed by anything that increases the resource size and therefore the total Net Present Value and life of mine.

Really fab to see David Minchin involved here. He's had a great track record of getting these projects going and I've seen him generate some serious returns at HEX and HE1 when he was involved.

This is a handy research thread:

https://x.com/ProAIMTrader/status/2042234725582979089

I think that there are two big catalyst moments that are signalled:

1. Project funding

2. Converting the off-shore resource into something that has permission to be extracted.

It's quite odd having a tailings project with upside, as usually you know the full resource size in advance of any extraction. We know that the off-shore resource is 121Mt, which roughly speaking would scale the $154m NPV10 by 3-8X, I think depending on what grade you assume and recovery rate.

Whomever it is, they can only sell once. So it's good to get them cleared.

Loads of volume printed - I think that will be the historic sellers cleared who had taken us down.

This cuts both ways obviously (as we've seen with the first day of dealings), but 58.4% of the stock is locked in here, for twelve months (see the admission document).

That means at today's prices you have a free float of ~45.76m shares, or ~£6m, which is really not a lot.

If (big IF) they can secure project financing in relatively short order, this could move back upwards very quickly to the 18p IPO price and we'll beyond, because there's just so little stock available to be traded.

Firms that sit at that point of funding being near approval, seem to sit between £40-50m market capitalisation, so from today's £13.5m market capitalisation there's clearly a lot of upside potential, IF they manage to achieve that.

It's clearly not a stock for everyone and has obvious risks, however, I'm happy to be involved in advance of that news (assuming it comes), because I think it would get marked up significantly in the opening auction.

Good luck everyone!

Ah, that explains the animosity!

Thank you for the kind wishes - I've always felt that a market where we're all doing well is the best market to be in.

Good luck to us all!

It won't be a play for everyone.

I think that the reality is that in all firms you'll get buyers and sellers at different levels. Here there will be legacy money from the old structure, then Pre-IPO, people who bought post IPO but down here (me), IPO money in at 18p, etc.

As I said, it's not going to be a stock for everyone, but I think IF they secure funding, then it's far too cheap down here, as there are plenty of firms looking to fund not dissimilar projects at much higher market capitalisations.

That funding clearly derisks both the project, but crucially also the BOD to an extent, because having lots of money in from debt funding/steamers/royaltys/etc, will help to stop them repeating their past mistakes - I hope!

We'll see. Fingers crossed and good luck to you with your portfolio!

I'm a shareholder here. I wasn't in the IPO, but have bought since.

I can't speak for Mr Helpful, but what I feel I can say is this:

The Project is permitted, near term operational (18 months ish if they don't mess up), has very strong margins being a low cost producer, good jurisdiction and seems to be quite close to project funding - a major catalyst to an increase in the market capitalisation of the firm as it moves into a true development stage.

It's absolutely not without risk. No stock is.

Here, the risk is the BOD, who've had a fairly sketchy track record at points.

This being said, IF they can fund it, actually the risks disappear pretty quickly because so many of the other ducks are then lined up to generating free cash flows.

The question is: do you think they can get project funding?

If you do, it's multiples too cheap (partly because of the discount it trades at compared to similar firms because of the BOD). If you don't, it's clearly too expensive.

I believe they will fund this, hence I have a shareholding here.

Ahahahhahahahahahahahahah!

Let's face it, if that were a genuine risk, we would be trading a lot closer to 0p than we currently are.

I would politely suggest that you substantiate your views with some evidence; we might take them more seriously.

ESG mandates.

Loads of larger IIs have been under pressure to divest oil and gas investments in the last couple of years and as Blackrock proved here, you can sell down iliquid stocks, but it absolutely crushes the price.

Thus, any large holder that wants out has to wait until there's volume to do so.

I think that the key takeaways here are simply this:

We had £12m cash and were in thr danger zone for financing going forwards unless we monetised Kveikje.

Now we have 50% of our Norwegian assets, BUT £24m in cash, no risk for financing going forwards because of the $100m finance facility and a load of contingency payments headed our way on deal and drilling successes.

Our £12m market cap is clearly stupidly cheap,especially with a production deal looking likely very soon.

My view is that they're probably very close to finalising a production deal, but needed this RNS to be out in the wild in order for them to put out a production deal RNS in the near future.

"The Contemplated Acquisition remains subject to final negotiation and a number of key conditions, and there is no certainty the Contemplated Acquisition will reach completion, in which event the associated investment will fall away."

Note the words "final negotiation"...

I reckon we'll be adding our firat deal as part of this JV very soon.

It wasn't the news I thought we'd get, but actually that does read very well!