The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Website is back up.
It's down for me too.
This is the issue. Are they actually capable of swapping it for production?
So far, we know they delayed Kveikje monetisation while they looked to gain the liscence next door (Lotus), but now that is awarded this monetisation process is continuing.
I know they said that they weren't necessarily going to trade them both in a deal, but they obviously feel that they will one way or another or else they wouldn't have delayed the monetisation of Kveikje while they gained the Lotus liscence.
If they're trying to swap one or both into production, time matters. Now they might make an effective date of say the 1st January, but we just don't know.
I don't doubt the BODs oil and gas related skills. Having been in this process for years now, I do doubt their commercial skills.
I suspect that they haven't done a lot of PR, because in truth they haven't done a lot generally.
When it comes to production deals - the firms divesting either in Norway or in Asia (new focus) are generally getting rid of larger portfolios and so for us to engage any deal has to be fairly proprietary - especially as we're not in a position to raise new equity and take on lots of debt.
I think they probably also have in the back of their minds that the institutions and PIs will kick off if any deal awards them lots of options at a very low level, considering the crash in the share price from the IPO.
So, they're really trying to swap Kvejije and or Oswig into a production deal, structured in such a way that we effectively gap up in share price terms/or kick off a special divi/etc to lock out punters who come running in.
I don't know how achievable that is, but I can dream! It certainly felt from reading the Auctus report that they're giving themselves more time.
Could well do, Ash. Good point!
For now, with more news today of Blackrock selling down further, it doesn't look like there's going to be a stop to this pain for a while yet.
I just hope that any deal we get on production (and that feels far off even with all their recent rhetoric), is structured properly.
I.e. Let's make an assumption they find someone who will lend to them/swap/etc and that they find a production deal.
They need to ensure (somehow) that we're priced in the market sensibly - if we open up at 15p and a load of people run in and buy at those levels, then what has been the point of being a shareholder for these years?
It all needs very careful consideration on a structure level.
Ooooofffff. Painful move this morning.
I know the feeling. The thing is, these investor meet functions are always going to be a bit like that because they can't tell us anything market sensitive.
I think it was broadly speaking a good meeting all considering, but until Blackrock finish selling down or we get some really epic news, I can't see the drift here being likely to stop.
To be fair to him, he's answering the difficult questions. I think my strategy here stays stable - just gently averaging down whenever other opportunities come in, but I'm in no rush.
Production deals between 1k and 4k boepd for production deals, which would be nice (if they ever actually complete one)!
Watching it now. So far nothing new, but I guess any clues will drop during the Q&A.
RNS reads alright. I think for those of us who've been here a while, we won't be getting excited about anything until we see some actual money arrive either in cash form or BOEPD.
Now a deal along those lines would be fabulous! I suppose time will tell if they're able to pull one off, so we'll have to wait and see.
At least most of us here are well used to waiting!
I'm quite surprised they didn't suspend this. It all feels a bit odd really considering the circumstances.
However they decide to fund this, it clearly hasn't done the share price any favours so far...
Entirely speculation on my part, but it wouldn't be surprisibg if there's a swap between partners for Kveikje.
I. E. Idemitsu, have assets in Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand, but also own a portion of Kveikje.
https://www.idemitsu.com/en/business/resource/oil/project/vietnam/index.html
I think I just want it to be a good deal, tbh, with some production.
It's much easier to value the company properly when we have money flowing to the bottom line rather than away from it, so to speak.
Very interesting. Sounds to me from this bit below that they will be production in the mix, along with a bit of exploration and development. Fingers crossed all - it'll be particularly nice for those of us who've been here a while waiting for this moment.
"discussions with a number of parties regarding several opportunities across all phases of the E&P cycle in the South-east Asia region."
Now that's very interesting! I'll have a good look in a bit to see if anymore can be uncovered.
Well, right now, the volume, or lack there of, suggests that if the rumour is going around that not many people believe it at any rate.
Bid or no bid, the firm is cheap right now, in my opinion.