Member Info for MozzaBezza

I sympathise with him, TBH. Particularly, because his position is so large that you can only get rid of it when the whole market is interested in the stock, which hasn't exactly happened often here.

Richard Sneller selling down, it'll be nice to get him shifted completely, tbh.

Although, I suppose that may be very variable depending on the reservoir and hence why they haven't.

I pretty much agree with all of that, Paul.

Assuming the DST comes back with a big low end number, for recoverable reserves and an idea of flow rates at an economically good level, we'll do well, I hope.

I have wondered why they haven't given us interim numbers for Oswig, with the then intention of revisions upwards, but they may well feel that their current data isn't high resolution enough to put accurate figures on it.

You would think this bit below from the last research report implies they could put a number out:

“the overall in-place volume encountered by the well is higher than the pre-drill best case expectation”.

My observation is that they often do have soem link up, but thst the figures are just always at the low ends (understandably).

So take EV, for example, which is 19mmboe OIP, at the low end, with our 15%. That comes to $11.4m net to LBE at $4/boe. Add on Kveikje and Rodhette and you get a total of $29.8m or, about our Market cap at the moment in GBP.

Now you can quibble about cash reserves, etc, but I think if this comes in with a low end OIP figure that's decent, then we'll do well.

For now, it's back to the waiting room. At least we're all well practiced!

What is quite nice about the DST is that, all going well on a commercial level, we should get a vague idea of potential flow rates too, which, if it comes in as expected, means a higher value per boe can be applicable, simply because more is known about the well.

Fingers crossed and back to waiting!

I completely agree, Paul.

"The key objectives of the DST is to establish reservoir productivity, detailed fluid properties and determine the range of recoverable resources."

I think the market will view this as a question mark until we get the range of recoverable resources. That being said, so far it's looking very positive.

Reads very well so far! Side track should then confirm that all going well.

I think that having put out an expected time frame of seven weeks, we would be told if they were planning a sidetrack, but equally they're not known for their communication skills - hence why i'm a bit twitchy about reading into anything.

Well, we're 53 days in (possibly a couple more depending on your view re. dates). Assuming no unexpected delays, we'll be looking at next week I suppose for an RNS either way.

As Paul has rightfully pointed out, they may well have found something, but the wireline logging could indicate its not commercial, so there's litte point in getting excited from time frames alone just yet.

Equally, they may well have had to do a sidetrack, in which case we could be waiting longer again.

All we can do is have our fingers firmly crossed!

I don't know. I think i'll only believe it when I see it TBH. But that being said, I live in hope!

Thanks for keeping an eye on this Paul, it's much appreciated.

I think that the reason a new BOD would come in would be because the IIs would argue that as they couldn't get a deal done where they did have a comparative advantage, why should they remain directors in a jurisdiction where they don't.

Now, I think they probably go UK north sea or Denmark, or something like that, so the reality is, I agree, that they stay.

I sort of agree with you in principle, but in practice, I think the current BOD probably wpuld be kicked out first, then a new lot would be put in by the IIs.

The current strategy has a big issue, which is that it works on the basis that they fins something large enough in isolation to be actually able to swap.

So far, everything is too small, or has too many question marks over size.

Fingers crossed this one ticks the box!

Three big trades there. Two 100k shares - maybe a bed and ISA (very close together). And a 140k shares.

Good spot!

Well we're 51 days in now going off of the spud RNS date. Nicely getting further away from their expected duster announcement date and cliser towards their discovery date.

Obviously, they may have been delayed, had other isses, or it may still have a poor reservoir. We'll see. Fingers still firmly crossed!

In truth, I don't know. They could easily be either buys or sells.

I lean slightly to them being buys, because getting rid of size is always a bit tricky with this stock - although you could sell more than 40k shares this morning at bid premiums, so they could be worked sells.

Time will tell i think. If we get goood news on Tuesday, they'll have been worked buys is my guess and someone has know about it. I can't see it being the IIs down here.

Couple more big trades there. Another 100k and a 90k.

Very good analysis!

"refine its strategy" feels like a euphemism for 'raise more money'... TBH.

Let's see. Those of us old hands, all bought in for a production deal, so anything that sensibly delivers that I would be happy with.

If they know the results of both, then I agree that it's better to get this bad one out of the way now, tbh.

It at the very least means we can focus on the positives until Velocette and the Egyptian Vulture appraisal well.