Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
I suppose the real question re. Time frames will be about where they start the DST and the side track from.
If they start it from the casing at ~4305m, then we'll be done a lot faster than if they start it from the 2495m casing.
I guess all of this will depend on the conditions down well, which only they'll know, but even with LBE's ususal extended time frames, I expect that we'll be done in under the six-eight week time frame, but let's see.
I guess we'll have to wait and see Paul, but I agree with you. Also, the BOD tend to over estimate time frames, so the end week of this month would be about right, that included.
It may well be that we can tell once the flaring starts, if they have any fire safety ships nearby, although with these fancy modern rigs, I guess they probably don't even need them for doing a DST.
Ah, in that case, you're probably right, Paul. See you all in a few weeks then nar anything else!
I think there's a fairly good chance that we'll get results from the DST sooner than the 6-8 weeks.
The thing is, they've drilled pretty much to the initial target depth, so i would imagine that they will start a new side track at 4000m (a bit above the initial reservoir) let's say, so it's not like they have all of that way to drill again.
I reckon that the result to say that they had found hydrocarbons probably had leaked out, but that people then took positions pre having any idea of how much.
My guess, and this is a guess, is that we maybe have to wait another couple of weeks.
I think that the move we'll get will be tied bang on to the minimum recoverable number of barrels and that $4/boe figure.
If they then chuck in something about having had offers for it, then maybe a bit more.
Firms that have big finds generally see big moves and I don't feel like that will be different here.
I sympathise with him, TBH. Particularly, because his position is so large that you can only get rid of it when the whole market is interested in the stock, which hasn't exactly happened often here.
Richard Sneller selling down, it'll be nice to get him shifted completely, tbh.
Although, I suppose that may be very variable depending on the reservoir and hence why they haven't.
I pretty much agree with all of that, Paul.
Assuming the DST comes back with a big low end number, for recoverable reserves and an idea of flow rates at an economically good level, we'll do well, I hope.
I have wondered why they haven't given us interim numbers for Oswig, with the then intention of revisions upwards, but they may well feel that their current data isn't high resolution enough to put accurate figures on it.
You would think this bit below from the last research report implies they could put a number out:
“the overall in-place volume encountered by the well is higher than the pre-drill best case expectation”.
My observation is that they often do have soem link up, but thst the figures are just always at the low ends (understandably).
So take EV, for example, which is 19mmboe OIP, at the low end, with our 15%. That comes to $11.4m net to LBE at $4/boe. Add on Kveikje and Rodhette and you get a total of $29.8m or, about our Market cap at the moment in GBP.
Now you can quibble about cash reserves, etc, but I think if this comes in with a low end OIP figure that's decent, then we'll do well.
For now, it's back to the waiting room. At least we're all well practiced!
What is quite nice about the DST is that, all going well on a commercial level, we should get a vague idea of potential flow rates too, which, if it comes in as expected, means a higher value per boe can be applicable, simply because more is known about the well.
Fingers crossed and back to waiting!
I completely agree, Paul.
"The key objectives of the DST is to establish reservoir productivity, detailed fluid properties and determine the range of recoverable resources."
I think the market will view this as a question mark until we get the range of recoverable resources. That being said, so far it's looking very positive.
Reads very well so far! Side track should then confirm that all going well.
I think that having put out an expected time frame of seven weeks, we would be told if they were planning a sidetrack, but equally they're not known for their communication skills - hence why i'm a bit twitchy about reading into anything.
Well, we're 53 days in (possibly a couple more depending on your view re. dates). Assuming no unexpected delays, we'll be looking at next week I suppose for an RNS either way.
As Paul has rightfully pointed out, they may well have found something, but the wireline logging could indicate its not commercial, so there's litte point in getting excited from time frames alone just yet.
Equally, they may well have had to do a sidetrack, in which case we could be waiting longer again.
All we can do is have our fingers firmly crossed!
I don't know. I think i'll only believe it when I see it TBH. But that being said, I live in hope!
Thanks for keeping an eye on this Paul, it's much appreciated.
I think that the reason a new BOD would come in would be because the IIs would argue that as they couldn't get a deal done where they did have a comparative advantage, why should they remain directors in a jurisdiction where they don't.
Now, I think they probably go UK north sea or Denmark, or something like that, so the reality is, I agree, that they stay.
I sort of agree with you in principle, but in practice, I think the current BOD probably wpuld be kicked out first, then a new lot would be put in by the IIs.
The current strategy has a big issue, which is that it works on the basis that they fins something large enough in isolation to be actually able to swap.
So far, everything is too small, or has too many question marks over size.
Fingers crossed this one ticks the box!
Three big trades there. Two 100k shares - maybe a bed and ISA (very close together). And a 140k shares.
Good spot!
Well we're 51 days in now going off of the spud RNS date. Nicely getting further away from their expected duster announcement date and cliser towards their discovery date.
Obviously, they may have been delayed, had other isses, or it may still have a poor reservoir. We'll see. Fingers still firmly crossed!