Member Info for MozzaBezza

I don't like it, but staff expenses increasing isn't surprising as their staff on payroll has gone up since they have assets to do work on.

I do rather resent the bonus'. They might feel they're deserved them operationally, but they certainly don't deserve them from a share price perspective.

Page 12 effectively highlights what we all know anyway - raising large sums of money is hard if you don't already have cash flows or equity value to justify it.

Hence why with the size of their own shareholdings so significantly underwater, I think the BOD are effectively forced to go down the swap route, or monetise for cash.

I know there's a delay to these reports beibg written, but I thought it was quite interesting how ambiguous they seem to be about M&A in Norway vs Malaysia.

That being said, right now, I just want them to have any production deal!

I'm less convinced that they'll raise after a deal for Kveikje.

Mainly, because the BOD's own equity is so underwater that even on their sallaries, they'd need to put a lot in to get their averages down and I find it hard to see institutions rewarding them with big options packages after such a long stretch of failure.

It feels to me like they're actively trying to avoid raising fresh equity, so that any deal has the most geared effect on the share price. They xould raise at say 30p and the already fairly full shareholdet register probably wouldn't thank them if they could do a deal for debt, or a swap, etc.

Good point, Ash!

I'm trying to strike a balance here between being positive and looking at the information they've presented with no rose tinted glasses.

At the end of the day, it boils down to having to just having to wait to see what they deliver on the production front and then between now and then I'll gently drip more money in as and when it appears.

At least we're all well practiced at waiting!

Yah, it'll be an interesting one to watch playout here costs wise and just generally.

Right now, the cost basis actually doesn't matter that much per month for me... Only assuming, they actually pull their finger out and get a production deal over the line...

I would imagine we'll never find out why they seemed so confident on a March M&A update, to then push it out in the last presentation to "later in the spring", but it would be interesting to know.

They did seem confident in the last presentation that a production deal was on the way. I think that right now, if they can get a few thousand boepd of production without diluting the equity, then it's clearly stupidly cheap down here. AET: 4500bopd, £50m mcap (Africa), SOUC 3000 boepd, £30m mcap (US), AXL £40m mcap 3000bopd (Columbia),

The question however is: after three years of talking about doing this, will it actually happen?

Now, we don't know if they're going to get production in Malaysian or Norway. They currently imply Norway is more likely, but we'll see. If they do, if probably makes sense that, this will trade on a higher P/E than a more difficult jurisdiction, but we'll have to just wait and see.

I still feel they could say more than they do as a rule.

They're not producing fields. No cash flow is being generated from those assets.

They discovered hydrocarbons, but there are currently no flowing barrels of oil equivalent from those fields.

Erm... There is no production here. Discoveries: yes. Production: no, but hopefully soon.

Ooooooh! Back in the double figures!

Granted, I still need this to go up ~5.5X more to get to my average, but it's a start.

As ever with LBE, I'll believe the potential catalysts when I see them. I don't doubt their intentions, but they're not famed for their speed.

That's my view too, Tuscany. To be honest, that seems to make sense too, as thus far they've proven that they can't buy cash flows in Norway.

Fair point, Ash.

I guess being the small partner in any deal, they're always going to be at the mercy of bigger player's time scales, but it does still feel like they could communicate more regarding any deals they're looking at.

Everything is always very vague on the M&A front with them, which you can get away with for a while, but after a point you start to wonder if it is in fact actually about the obfuscation of a lack of any real deal making going on.

I think that you're right - the problem they're up against is that unless they deliver consistent cash flows, the business will always trade on a fair discount to what even a successful discovery strategy would imply, because it's much easier to value consistent income than inconsistent income.

I wonder how far they're looking to push into Q2 for their next kvejije monetisation update. I would hope not a lot, if they had been confident enough on 15th Feb, to say they'd update the market in the first quarter of 2023.

Well, I dripped a little more in today and if I'm lucky I might drip more in soon.

Nothing major - I think you have to be fairly brave to take massive positions here, just because of their flexible attitude to time.

But we'll see... It would be nice to think they're close to delivering something positive.

I think i'll believe it when I see it. There have been so many false dawns here, you can barely count them and let's face it, that's only about £25k of buying, which isn't exactly enormous.

Very apt Whirl!

I'll probably drip a little more in here anyway in the coming weeks, but I must confess, I'm now looking back and questioning when my Stockholm syndrome set it.

I guess we'll never know this, but it would be interesting to know why they're giving themselves another quarter to get Kvejije monetised.

Is it because another Lotus situation/acquisition has occurred, or just because they're being their glacial selves?

It makes it difficult to plan for as a shareholder - although the price has tanked so much, that anything I buy now does bring my average down.

The question is: is there ever actually going to be catalyst for a big shareprice move?

They keep telling us there will be, but they've been saying that now for three years.

Website is back up.

It's down for me too.

This is the issue. Are they actually capable of swapping it for production?

So far, we know they delayed Kveikje monetisation while they looked to gain the liscence next door (Lotus), but now that is awarded this monetisation process is continuing.

I know they said that they weren't necessarily going to trade them both in a deal, but they obviously feel that they will one way or another or else they wouldn't have delayed the monetisation of Kveikje while they gained the Lotus liscence.

If they're trying to swap one or both into production, time matters. Now they might make an effective date of say the 1st January, but we just don't know.

I don't doubt the BODs oil and gas related skills. Having been in this process for years now, I do doubt their commercial skills.

I suspect that they haven't done a lot of PR, because in truth they haven't done a lot generally.

When it comes to production deals - the firms divesting either in Norway or in Asia (new focus) are generally getting rid of larger portfolios and so for us to engage any deal has to be fairly proprietary - especially as we're not in a position to raise new equity and take on lots of debt.

I think they probably also have in the back of their minds that the institutions and PIs will kick off if any deal awards them lots of options at a very low level, considering the crash in the share price from the IPO.

So, they're really trying to swap Kvejije and or Oswig into a production deal, structured in such a way that we effectively gap up in share price terms/or kick off a special divi/etc to lock out punters who come running in.

I don't know how achievable that is, but I can dream! It certainly felt from reading the Auctus report that they're giving themselves more time.

Could well do, Ash. Good point!

For now, with more news today of Blackrock selling down further, it doesn't look like there's going to be a stop to this pain for a while yet.