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I'm still happy to keep chucking money gently in this direction, but I'll hold my hands up and admit that it's 100% a gamble on them achieving something, which increasingly feels more and more sketchy as time goes on.
I think at its core, that's the problem - everything is done seemingly very slowly.
It's hard to get excited about something very far in the future and it's even harder to get excited about production deals that haven't and might not even happen.
It would be nice to get an idea of scale again.
They've been hinting at looking more internally for deals, but what does that actually mean from a boepd perspective. When we IPOed he said in an interview that we were looking at 2000/3000 boepd for a production deal in Norway/north sea.
Presumably we'd get more looking more internationally, but what does that look like?
It has always felt that the BOD say as little as possible, when they could say more.
They'd never be able to raise enough money to buy the whole thing, but perhaps this is the sort of thing we're talking about - they could swap Kveikje into a deal like this plus some debt and maybe some new equity to get a chunk of production.
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/equinor-joins-western-oil-firms-retreat-nigeria-sources-2023-01-25/
Dripped a little more in today.
I do reckon that if they're after international assets we'll find out fairly promptly now (assuming success), because they've been hinting at it since the 26th September presentation.
Fingers crossed if they do come up with something that it's actually a good deal with some flowing barrels of oil equivalent.
One of my worries is that any monetisation from Kveikje is effectively just used to keep the exploration strategy ticking over.
2.8m boe net to Longboat, at even $5/boe is only going to get them ~$14m, which isn't going to get you a lot of production, but would basically get you more exploration.
Even if they are looking internationally for production deals, that still wouldn't buy you much. On similar terms to AET's deal, that would get you ~700bopd.
I'll probably grab a few more in a week or so, but I'll be honest with you all, if this comes up to my average I'll be gone quickly I think.
I was very excited for a moment there too!
I think my skepticism around the current move is more due to the specific names on Twitter than anything else - Blowster, for example. I think one would have to be fairly charitable to suggest that he has a track record of sticking around for longer term moves and that he doesn't use his large following to his short term advantage.
The fact is, a profit is a profit and I won't begrudge anyone from making one here or on any other stock, regardless of whether I make one or not in the same move of the share price.
I do however, think that it's foolish to assume that firstly: what is "cheap" can't get cheaper and secondly that anyone buying now is necessarily anymore clever than those of us buying earlier.
Naturally, I want the share price to rise, for my benefit as well as for everyone else's, but I won't be optimistic when I can't see anything in the immediate to be optimistic about.
However, I do agree with you in so far that I would like to see the price go up - although with good news released to concrete any positive mood.
Happy new year, everyone.
Had a trawl through twitter. Just looks like another band waggon jumping move/pump.
FYI, I mean no disrespect in that assessment above, but merely that it doesn't look like a move that's based on anything above volume chasers.
Nice to see some movement. Although, I'll only believe anything good is happening here when I actually see it. Good luck all. Still holding.
It depends. Off of the top of my head, it's probably under 10% of my total book, so it's not a massive position in the grand scheme of things.
I think they'll come up with something, we just have no idea of what, and when this will happen.
I think a lot of people here in the same boat as me (i.e. gently averaging down, but in no hurry to do so), have the same problem at the moment, which is that we've accumulated decent holdings of stock at much higher levels.
My breakeven is ~72.75p, for ~44.5k share holding, so I have to throw a fair amount more in, in cash exposure terms, to bring my average down by a significant amount.
Factor in that there's no known news flow for a while and it's not looking particularly great for the company.
New investors likewise have little to gain here from a trade/investment, because there's no real value add from commodity price moves, etc. Any trade at the moment is just about hoping people chase the price up for you for you to sell into.
I'm still happy to gently average down, but i'm in no hurry, because even if they do a production deal suddenly, any new equity raised won't realistically be at or above my average anyway.
I wonder how long it will take for them to get something done here so this company actually resembles a business.
For me, i'll still keep gently dropping money in here, but I'm certainly in no hurry. Particularly, because we have no known catalysts on the horizon for a good while.
I can't see this having a good re-rate until they sort out having some proper cash flows. I think that as the pressure starts to mount, they'll look further away than Norway for production assets. It was certainly implied in their last presentation.
I completely agree, Paul. Anyone who has been here as long as we have can see through the ramps very easily.
Nah. My strategy is the same as it always has been here - keep gently dipping in as and when I have spare cash.
Those of us who've been here a while know the BOD aren't famed for doing anything quickly and this bounce to me just feels like the stock has slfound a bid from a few mentions on twitter.
I've emailed too. I try and just impress on them that what we need are cash flows. Until then, I don't think that the market will have much faith in their drill programme.
1.25m shares sold at 20p. Might be Sneller finishing maybe?
I think I might! If nothing else, it'll be fun to gently irritate him, considering all of the stuff we hear about generating shareholder value.
It's getting really tempting to send Helge another email asking how he feels the current strategy is going...
Nice one, Paul. It'll be interesting to hear what you get back.
I agree re. Kveikje, but the thing is, it works on the basis that the BOD pull their finger out and do something!
My feeling is that they must be thinking of doing another deal at least fairly soon, because I think they would have come in and bought some stock on the open market, if they believe their own words re. value creation.
RNS:Sneller now sub 3%