Member Info for MozzaBezza

Big delayed trade from yesterday for 1,388,889 shares at 8.3p.

That's either a seller being cleared or a big buyer I think. Either way, it's good to get the volumes.

Good to see some green on the screen today.

It highlights how much this play will be impacted by liquidity, because in the grand scheme of things, we've shifted +5% on not massive sums of money (~£20-25k).

Anything that really drives volumes here should see a massive move because of 58% of the float being locked-in at the IPO.

Good luck all!

Morning!

To be fair, the majority of the founding stock is locked in, under AIM rule 7. Even though ~58% (I think) of the stock is locked in, it clearly should have been more, but you couldn't force that necessarily, because AIM Rule 7 applies, I believe, only to holders over 10%.

I think down here you now have two things going on:

1. Any market maker who had stock under the old structure pre HALO is going to have been chipping out. PEEL and SCAP did I believe.

2. Clearly some of the lock-ins still weren't tight enough enough considering the old structure. So they might be making money, but that'll be literally one or two people I suspect.

Down here, all the IPO money is selling at a big loss, all the Pre-IPO money round is selling at a loss and so it's only a tiny number of people who will be making any profit.

The bigger issue than the sellers, is the lack of buyers.

There's going to be two main reasons for this:

1. Lack of trust in the BOD

2. Not knowing about the firm+project

I suspect that at this point the former probably has gained some precedent over the latter, but if they can deliver a proper financing package/show real progress, then I suspect that this trust will be renewed and buyers will come in.

I won't mention any specific names, but those of us who've been in this game for a while will know the names of directors of other firms where shareholders in at the right point made very large sums of money.

Often, it would come out later that these directors were proper crooks.

I don't think that's what we're dealing with here, but the BOD clearly have some trust to win back before buyers on the edge come in with conviction.

If you believe that they are able to pull the rabbit out of the hat here, then it's clearly too cheap. Most of us bulls+bears agree that the project itself looks very good, so that's clearly not the issue.

We also know they're receiving unsolicited approaches to provide finance, so it's not like they have to actually find deals themselves.

Even if you think there's a good chance they don't pull this off, then the risk to reward ratio down here is actually still very good, because they're valued at £9m, the listing alone is worth £1m as a general rule, cash of £~3.3m, and the project has historical spend of ~$7-8m on it.

So, currently there's pretty much no valuation at all attached to any of the asset, which is odd because we generally agree it's a good project.

Take the $154m NPV and say it's worth only 10% of that (really low valuation I think as that only covers the 31Mt reserves, not the whole 52Mt resource that would be extracted anyway, and includes no upside off shore).

If you thought that was only worth 10% ish of the NPV10, we'd be back to pretty much the IPO price.

I'm obviously annoyed to see the price down here as other holders are, but I think this is very strange opportunity where this has ended up effectively artificially mispriced, because

Just come across the Bloomberg terminal. Note in particular the consortium of Chinese buyers who've approached them.

https://x.com/i/status/2062557301739757639

There's been many more hints of M&A since they listed, so depending on what they pay and how value accretive it is, it could be a good opportunity to expand the resouce base a bit.

"Utilise the Company's expertise to build a portfolio of similar surface, metal-rich legacy mine waste assets to diversify from single-asset status"

Morning all.

My feeling is this: I can't control what Helpful does, when he buys, sells or posts on this board.

What I can do is look after my own interests here and so I added again earlier in the week. Probably prematurely, but if I could guess the exact tops/bottoms I'd be rich enough that I wouldn't be posting here.

Take care everyone and good luck with your positions.

Morning!

This is why the lock-ins are a key point here. 58% of the float is locked in. Which would be almost all of those larger holders from lower down.

If, granted it is an 'if', they sort the project funding out those in at the IPO price and everyone below should do well, because it IPOed at £20m valuation, when most firms in development are sat much higher than that. £50-60m+.

Also, I don't have the admission document in front of me right now, but I think that ~20% of the stock refers to the IPO stock which was at 18p, not 16p.

I can't counter your point re. Helpful, but I can counter the part about a finance deal:

- The copper price is incredibly strong right now and their project is very near in the lowest cost quartile for a producer. So it's an attractive project economically.

Well, they've only just IPOed, so I think a placing is highly, highly unlikely. Particularly, as they said they had cash for at least a year and more like eighteen months in the Investor Meet presentation.

Even if you felt that eighteen months wasn't likely, a year still puts us a very long way away from that point.

Additionally, when you IPO you have to demonstrate that you have funds for at least a year I believe under the rules, so it feels very unlikely in this case.

Valuation wise, I think it depends... I do think it's cheap, because if they get the project financing sorted for this project it will have an enterprise value of ~$90m, or £67m, so from £11m at the moment, with more than half of the stock locked in for a year, that feels like a very good risk to reward ratio.

Bound to be. We know they've been in discussions for project financing for ages, since well before the IPO.

So, I think that it would be either that or off-take news next.

In fact, you probably get off-take done first and then complete project financing, because any finance providers would want that in place first I guess, as it's a pivotal part of the project overall.

We know Glencore and Trafigura offer that and project financing, so it wouldn't be surprising if that's what they were talking about in Chile.

I've added more on the opening bell today.

My feeling is that they'll have only been talking with Glencore and Trafigura for coming up with an offtake agreement or project financing, or both. I was very happy to buy between 12-14p, so I'm very happy to buy at 10.75p too.

I don't know if they had more than one meeting with Glencore Chile specifically, but they do certainly seem to have had one with them and one with Trafigura:

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/halominerals_teamwork-mining-santiago-activity-7460050812635971584-GYJv?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android&rcm=ACoAABS34kwB6wc5ZKU1rE1SpUfJMwa1Hrab69o

That's then corroborated by the financial director's post on LinkedIn where he says:

"... to review progress against our IPO commitments and conversations with trading and financing partners as we look at structuring options for the next phase."

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/erickpegotogier_mining-chile-halominerals-activity-7461068691904815104-azlx?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android&rcm=ACoAABS34kwB6wc5ZKU1rE1SpUfJMwa1Hrab69o

In all likelihood, I think there's a good chance they've spoken to a good few different parties while they're there, because if they're physically in the area anyway it makes sense to try and touch base if nothing else. I can state that as a fact, but it would make sense.

Again, that's very kind, Banbury. Thank you!

I can't and won't speak for Helpful, but for me I view today's drop like this:

I really liked the stock at 13.5p (roughly where my average, is having bought from 12.5-14.5p) so I like it even more at 10.75p and intend to pick some more up next week once some funds clear. Particularly, because I know more about the project and the timelines at this point with each RNS that comes out. Nothing has changed with the company to cause this move.

With not many buyers yet (I think this is much more the problem over there being lots of sellers, because the overall volumes day to day are so low), we can swing quite suddenly when volumes arrive. However this will cut both ways when we do get some consistent buying.

I suspect that it would probably only take £50-100k of consistent buying to get us back to the mid teens. That's not as much as it seems.

We all learn at some point from AIM that we need to not miss out on these opportunities to buy good stocks at low valuations when when they appear. They're scarce moments and so we don't necessarily get long to act.

Very kind of you to say, thank you!

I can understand that worry, but for me because almost all of that early stock is locked in for 12 months from the IPO and then subject to an orderly market facility for another 12 months post that, the question becomes something like this:

Are they (HALO) able to reach major catalyst points where you could expect a valuation shift to the upside?

The biggest two are project financing and plant construction. The latter being dependent on the former.

I think they can reach those catalyst points, largely because a lot of the work has already been done and even if you don't like the shareholder structure or the board of directors (I do really like David Minchin, who I think really 'gets' how to do AIM effectively), then you have to ask if you like the project.

I do. I think it's a very solid project, with self-contained upside (odd for a tailings play), it has had all of the hard work done on it, it's in a good jurisdiction and it's just waiting for that final puzzle piece (project funding) to slot in.

We know that they've had incoming, organic calls from plenty of different parties, so it's clear that the much bigger players like the project too, it's just about getting over the finishing line.

Regardless of what happens, best of luck to everyone with their portfolios.

I'm in the process of moving some money around with the aim being to buy more at some point next week.

Silly move down today exacerbated by the low liquidity with 58% of the stock locked in.

Over more than thirteen years of investing in both AIM and resource plays generally, I know that at some point this trend turns and the same forces that took us down quickly (largely the low free float) will be the same ones that push us back up quickly. I think it's quite likely that we'll see a stronger PR push, because right now it's clear from the volumes on the green days that not many have heard of the firm yet; there's been only a handful of days where we've traded more than my own shareholding for example.

I think that if they can secure financing from someone like Glencore/Trafigura it will totally underline how cheap this is at a £13m market cap.

It should be much closer to £50m at the moment heading into project financing, which is where other developers often sit.

They were having meetings with Glencore and Trafigura today - that's really significant stuff and you can bet it will be re. providing project finance.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/halominerals_teamwork-mining-santiago-activity-7460050812635971584-GYJv?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android&rcm=ACoAABS34kwB6wc5ZKU1rE1SpUfJMwa1Hrab69o

This is a cash flow model that has the firm pumping out $1bn of post tax cash flows over the project life using very concervative numbers:

https://x.com/i/status/2054090712568795138

It's not without risks, but the final hurdle is basically project funding, which we know is being negotiated as I write this.

Secure that and this should move many hundreds of percent upwards to a proper valuation moving into production.

Yes! One of the interesting points Charles made in that interview was that when CAML owned this asset they had it valued on their books at $35m (£25.5), back when the copper price was 3USD/lb and it's now $6.3/lb.

On that alone we would have to have a 90% rise just to get to where CAML valued it when copper was $3/lb. Scale CAML's valuation in line with how much the copper price has risen to just the $5.3/lb used in the CPR and we'd need a 234% rise to get there.

New interview out this weekend with David Minchin. Went really well I thought.

He makes it very clear that it's too cheap down here with most of the difficult aspects of the project being complete and says what to look out for.

https://x.com/i/status/2053523281102131415

I know that some of the large trades printed after the bell this week were roll-overs, but either way that's probably the seller being cleared out from the IPO that Charles Archer spoke about here from the same date (7th).

https://thatstocksguy.substack.com/p/halo-minerals-2d0?r=ox0eb&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true