Member Info for MozzaBezza

It's nice to be able to offload stock in size again - I can actually get quotes to sell over 40k shares now at a slight premium to the bid.

Interestingly, if you look in the document OMV posted, of Time vs Depth, and take the spud date as the RNS date (although I think it's fair to assume a day or two earlier), then they'll be at or near the expected start of the reservoir depth now (page 18 of Paul's pdf).

Expected reservoir depth from the LBE presentation seems to be ~4600-5000m and the OMV document suggests we're at ~4500m at the current number of days in (24+possibly a couple of days).

If a news leak is going to happen, my bet is that it would start to leak in the next week or so. Let's see.

Fingers crossed.

Hummmmm. Interesting. I guess, with us being sold down from the 70p are to the 30p area, it makes sense there would be stock sloshing around, I just didn't think it would be that much at those kind of prices.

Wow! Good find, Paul! Thank you! I got very little from my searching, but you're clearly more talanted then I am!

Has anyone managed to track down numbers from OMV as to what their estimate for the drill time is? Previously with wells, LBE have had longer time frames than the operators have.

My view is that discoveries we seem to hear about quickly, while dusters/uncommercial wells take longer to hear about.

I don't know what drill speeds Intrepid can do for HTHP wells, but considering they managed 1300m in 24 hours (presumably a normal drill though) even at 15% of that speed we'd be ~3750m down now.

Let's see. Fingers crossed everyone!

Nice spot, Paul. Thanks! Interestingly, depending on when in September it spuds, we could get results for those two wells very close together.

It's hard to say really, but a few things aren't obvious yet:

1. Where that stock came from.
2. Who they actually are.

Once we get those we can dial in a bit. Regardless, clearly they like the stock!

Naturally, having now highlighted this, it will be the longest drill of them all - sod's law and everything!

Interesting reading the below article, which implies that if they can go quickly (even just on sections of this drill) we might be done a lot sooner than expected. It's a beast of a rig!

https://www.maerskdrilling.com/what-we-do/cases/intrepid-maximising-performance-in-norway

"Such a performance was made possible by the rig’s ability to drill 1,500m in 12¼” section and 1,300m in 8½” section within 24 hours."

Yeah, that's hard to argue against, TBH.

I don't know... Don't get me wrong, I like the stock and I continue to drip feed in, but the value is all connected to what other plays are out there in the sector.

So for example, with many UK listed oil and gas firms trading on P/E ratios in the low single figures and with strong cash flows, in the current market i'd agrue those are better than being here.

I think here, what people perceive as 'value' often times is really just gearing, to any oil and gas strike that comes in at a decent size.

That being said, it's nice to see the rise, so i'm not complaining!

It would be interesting to see/hear the rationale behind the buying that's going on.

Nice to see it for a change, nevertheless!

I think they must have got them from Blackrock as they had pretty much the same holding.

They seem to be almost a front for funds - admin, name, etc. It's not obvious they actually do more than provide the infrastructure, TBH, which means anyone could be behind this.

Entirely speculation, but it could be another oil firm wanting to vote through any deals, asset swaps, etc.

CAIAC taken 13.326% of the shares. Crossed the threshold on 4th August. Presumably we'll see the seller fairly soon unless they somehow managed to pick that all up on the open market.

I think it must have been buyers chasing, because you can't get decent quotes to sell size.

Might be wrong, might be right. Nevertheless, normal things being normal, that would be most likely I think.

Well, no news thus far, so I presume buys were just chasing eachother. Nevertheless, let's see what happens today. If we see something similar to yesterday, then maybe that would suggest there is a leak, but i'll believe it when I see it.

Good luck all.

Yeah, unless the Oswig field actually starts a few km higher than we expected it won't be that, so I guess we have a few options:

1. It isn't actually a leak, but just buying (seems most likely), with people chasing one another.
2. News on appraisal wells for our current projects.
3. Deals for our assets.
4. Deals for other projects.

Let's see. Fingers crossed the market likes any news that comes our way!

Heard anything on the grapevine, Daveri?

I think that's exactly it, Harry.

We effectively have two groups of shareholders now: those who bought in for the initially stated production deal and those who came in for the new strategy.

It's not necessarily that either strategy is bad in isolation, but the frustrations sit with saying one thing and doing another.

I think if they find a nice big chunk of hydrocarbons, preferably in one place, they'll be fine and swap into cash flows, but I think most of us here from closer to the IPO thought this would be a similar journey to Kistos or Rockrose.

It is what it is at the end of the day, and I haven't sold out, because I can see value in the current strategy, but it's much riskier than I ever wanted for this position on my book.

It would be interesting to know if they have had discussions and what figures per BOE people are using in these deals. I get there will be a case by case element for it, but it would be nice to know.

TBH, I would celebrate anything that would see us having money returned to us, either in cash or via the share price actually going up for a change.

I have always felt that a large part of the problem here is that they're getting very generous packages on the salary level, ontop of their options and stock holdings.

It means that "getting the best deal for shareholders" feels like an excuse for not acting with any level of urgency, because TBH, they don't actually need to.

I like your idea, Whirlaw, but I think thw firm would be most likely to argue they need the cash for deaps and developments ans would rather not lever up for further deals, etc. That being said, I agree that this is a solid idea by which we can all win.

The thing is, it ultimately depends on what they find.

I don't like the current situation either, but ifbthey find losts of oil/gas it will go up. Simple.

I think the reactions to strikes thus far have been lack lustre because they weren't massive net finds to LBE. Even Egyptian Vulture, which looks big on the face of it, is actually a big question mark, because the ranges given were so huge.

If they find 19m boe net to LBE, we'll see a good rise. 1.70p? I don't know. I think it's always wise to discount personally.

Nevertheless, while I don't like the current strategy, I don't think it's worthless, IF they actually find something.