Member Info for MozzaBezza

Part of the problem that I have is that I want to keep gently getting my average down, but it's quite clear that so far that strategy has been throwing good money after bad.

I know the feeling exactly!

Ironically, those director purchases actually seem to have done more damage than good to the share price, as it really just told us that they aren't any closer to a production deal.

I think they're also stuck a bit now between a rock and a hard place with a production deal, because hydrocarbon prices are high and so it seems unlikely that they'll get a particularly cheap deal in the grand scheme of things.

That means, IMO, that they really have to swap assets into production, of which right now they only really have Egyptian Vulture that they could swap for anything that might be significant. The issue here is that they've said they would look to prove it up more first, which as we all know, takes a long time.

Booking an appraisal well (once they have decided where to do one post data analysis), presumably has a two or three month lead time, so we're looking at that asset being proven up enough to be swapped at the end of the year at the earliest if we're being realistic, I think.

Thus any hope of a big push up in the price here comes back to our current exploration plan finding something very exciting. The question is, even then, will it actually see a decent jump in the share price, because Egyptian Vulture didn't exactly show long lived optimism.

Fingers crossed we'll all have something a bit more positive to talk about with the next drill!

I don't know about what the rest of you think, but I would support the removal of the current BOD and their replacement candidates. The firm really should be making a lot more money with the coal prices at Richards Bay at the moment.

They're damned really until they get cash flows, unless they're prepared to do a management buyout of the firm at 200p, which I can't see happening.

Well, fingers crossed one of these comes in! We could do with more to be positive about round here!

While I'm here (all 2021 figures):

Production (in tonnes)
Q1 115,944.00 Q2 127,927.00 Q3 120,260.00 Q4 107,188

Of which, High Quality:
Q1 53,512.00 Q2 84,834.00 Q3 64,673.00 Q4 43,280

Of which, Middlings:
Q1 8,789.00 Q2 6,024.00 Q3 5,872.00 Q4 5,783

Total sales in tonnes:
Q1 62,301.00 Q2 90,858.00 Q3 70,545.00 Q4 49,063

Revenue per tonne ($):
Q1 71.76 Q2 84.91 Q3 108.00 Q4 111

Production cost per saleable tonne ($):
Q1 72.74 Q2 56.74 Q3 76 Q4 98

Profit per tonne ($):
Q1 -0.98 Q2 28.17 Q3 32 Q4 13.00

I think this quarter's issues have massively skewed what should have been a pretty decent quarter, but we'll have to see if this looks likely to follow through into Q1 or not.

Right, so total mining revenue for 2021 was $25.25m.
Each quarter looked like this:

Revenue 2021:
Q1 $4.4m Q2 $7.7m Q3 $7.6m Q4 $5.4m

Cash 2021:
Q1 $2.3m Q2 $3.2m Q3 $3.5m Q4 $3.2m

They should have seen a further cash build in Q4, but the issue with their off-take partner seemed to stop that, but if prices stay here I would assume that all gets sold in Q1 plus what we would expect anyway, so all going to plan, the cash build in Q1 ought to be relatively large.

This being said, I'm finding this stock hard to work out.

Has anyone here actually had a response to their emails to the BOD? All of mine, bar the early ones, just get ignored.

I was thinking about Suncor's assets for sale in Norway and TBH, Oda field is mostly oil production, Fenja isn't online yet anyway and the other field is Beta which also isn't near production yet. So it doesn't look that likely that they'll be bidding there.

I just wish that in light of no actual production deal thus far they would at the very least say what they are doing: are they in discussions and for what levels of production?, what is the progress of evaluating Egyptian Vulture?, etc

I've always felt that they could say a lot more than they actually do, which if nothing else might stop people selling out only because they're bored!

Well, we should get some full year results in March, by which time they'll hopefully be able to give us an update on production acquisitions.

I can't pretend i'm esspecially optimistic, TBH.

Yeah, I rather thought that this would fit the bill too, when it looked like it was up for sale pre-covid.

Let's see what it goes for now. Fingers crossed they can pull a production deal out of the bag, because I think it'll be the only thing that saves us!

I'm trying to work this one out too. Hopefully it'll be covered in the interview, or we'll be waiting for the next set of results to work it out.

My view, although I accept that I am relatively new here so perhaps I haven't been grounded by the BOD's failures, but I reckon with the coal price where it is now, we should be seeing proper cash generation.

*risk

Loan extended. Should go higher now that rish is removed for a while.

Well, let's see what happens re. current drilling. This being said, i'm not feeling wildly optimistic at the moment!

Words cannot describe how much they dropped the ball in not acquiring producing assets.

I like both dividends and buybacks, but right now I think I would rather see buybacks here - I like how they concentrate the dividends and I think the regional discount right now is too high, so buybacks will help to decrease that a bit.

Most oil firms have a share price that is geared to the oil price, GKP isn't really so a buyback would likely help to address that too.

I think, TBH, i'd rather see them swap something early and maybe not get full value for it, but not dilute in order to get production.

The thing is, most of us were in for the production at the IPO, exploration could prove to be fine if they can swap it quickly, but I think they're quite naive if they think they can see a big share price rise with only oil in the ground. At a £4.5m market cap that would be true at £45m it really isn't.

Hurray!

Well, we should hopefully get a spud RNS tomorrow. Fingers crossed for another hit (preferably one the market likes).

Fingers crossed, Paul! If anyone deserves luck here it's us!