Member Info for MozzaBezza

Get this man a medal! Thanks, Paul.

Ditto, Paul.

Looking rather good today! Fingers crossed we get success at the drill bit! We're only ~4 weeks away now from hearing from the first well anyway, so it's not a long wait in the grand scheme of things.

I know the feeling. My first buys weren't quite in immediately post IPO, but in January 2020. I've been gently topping up since then, but I must admit, it has been a long wait. I just hope they actually find something in the ground to facilitate a nice big move in the share price, because there needs to some some catalyst for movement bar potential.

I think people will look in more when there's any actual discovery.

I've been in here a long time now and I think people will believe it when they see it. Esspecially as these drills aren't for stupendously huge estimates of oil in place. A hit for the first three or four wells adds ~170p to the current value (if I have remembered that right at a figure of $4/boe).

That's not to say there won't be excitement here if we do find oil/gas, but this isn't the usual kind of oil/gas play on AIM that might (for example) be a 5% chance of success but for a target of a billion barrels of oil.

I think (with say two of four discoveries coming in for LBE before the end of Q1 2022, obviously dependent of the number of BOE found) we'll see 250p, hopefully more, but let's wait and see.

I'm in exactly the same position, Beardozer.

I think that if they strike oil in any good size, say 75m barrels net to LBE, then at $4/£2.75 per boe you're looking at a valuation of 4x higher from here.

I think LBE is very much more geared now than KIST, as the valuation hinges on a discovery or two, but the upside is there on a strike, IMO.

All of those numbers match up with mine too.

I think that on a strike we'll probably get these numbers and then some on top, because:

1. The free float is quite small
2. The firm have already said they'll look to swap some of these for production
3. The markets love an oil find in a safe jurisdiction.

Of course this all works the other way if they find dusters... I think we just need to watch this space now, although a good first drill would be ideal! Fingers crossed!

Paul, you are a star! Thank you!

Paul, you deserve an award for your efforts with tracking these vessels. Thank you!

Nice to see something finally happening here today! Let's hope we can get the ball rolling soon with a good first drill!

I think we'll start seeing traction here pretty soon. We wouldn't have seen DOID (albeit via Mr Gupta) take ~15% of the firm unless there were a shorter term benefit to that move for him.

If we had a while to wait for anything juicy to happen, then I think we likely would have seen the price drift lower for a while, before Mr Gupta stepped in as a buyer.

I think there will be a reason behind him taking this, be it immediate leverage re. deal making, take overs, etc. I'd be surprised if taking this 15% now is part of a longer term play from DOID/Mr Gupta, because that seller was always going to be there.

It had been moving, so I don't think so. Particularly because the ETA for that was in late July I think according to the tracker.

The rig must be nearly there now:

You can't quite tell, but you can see it's obviously close:

This is the licence location I believe (data not fully updated yet): https://www.norskpetroleum.no/en/facts/licences/939/

Rig tracker: https://www.vesselfinder.com/?imo=8768763

Odd.... Something must be going on though. The bid is up.

Definitely going to get rocky today!

I reckon the bottom is in now. Taken ~1100 shares today and will add further in (hopefully) not long assuming there are no major pull backs.

I absolutely hate share consolidations.

I've been investing full time for seven years now and from my experience they generally cause the share price to drop from where is had been in relative terms prior to the consolidation.

Also, let's face it, the kind of attitude behind it re. 'making the share price seem more appealing' is entirely a psychological one rather than one that has much real bearing on the realities of the company's fundamentals.

I personally hope they don't do one.

Nice to see 0.7p being attacked again. This will be the seventh time since March that we'll have had a go at this level. Eventually, probably on good news I suspect, we'll have a proper pop through the level.

Certainly, I'm more than happy to add as funds appear.

Yeah, I've always felt that while GKP has a lot of cash to potentially give back to shareholders, both buybacks and dividends make sense.

The buybacks work to increase the dividend per share for those who wish to hold and for those who wish to sell the buybacks create a matginal buyer in the market.

I actually agrued that GKP should have been buying back stock as soon as their downside hedging was in place, but heyho, they didn't.

Buybacks alongside dividends make most sense to me.

I havve emailed the firm many times suggesting a buyback, while they never replied, I would encourage all who think that it's a good idea to email them.

I like dividends, but I feel that they work best when done alongside a buyback and GKP have enough money in the bank that they can easily do this. In particular, the buyback keeps upwards pressure on that dividend yield as the shares get removed from circulation, but the dividend stays the same assuming the share price doesn't move up and if the share price does move up people increase their capital values.

I've always argued that most poeple will make the majority of their returns from the capital gains over dividends.