Member Info for MozzaBezza

Well, we should hopefully get a spud RNS tomorrow. Fingers crossed for another hit (preferably one the market likes).

Fingers crossed, Paul! If anyone deserves luck here it's us!

"The current position of WEST HERCULES is at North Sea (coordinates 61.06045 N / 3.32741 E) reported 1 min ago by AIS. The vessel is en route to GINNY, sailing at a speed of 3.2 knots and expected to arrive there on Dec 30, 21:00."

On route - news end of January early February then I suppose.

Well, Norway M&A does seem to be turning up:

Deals like this frustrate me though, because the implication is that we could/should have done one like this:

https://www.energyvoice.com/markets/370800/sval-energi-buys-spirit-energy-norway-for-1billion-uk-business-in-run-off-mode/

Spirit Energy has instead struck a $50million (£37.7m) deal to sell its stakes in the Statfjord area to Equinor.

Statfjord, which celebrated its 40th anniversary in 2019, is one of the oldest production hubs in the sector, producing more than 51 billion barrels to date.

Equinor already operates all of the Statfjord licences, while Spirit’s share of production from its various stakes was around 21,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the third quarter of this year.

The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2022.

Camilla Salthe, senior vice president for late life assets in Equinor, said: “We still have high expectations for Statfjord and have recently launched a plan to extend the life of the field towards 2040."

21k boepd for $50m suggests that there are deals out there for us that would fit the bill perfectly, over and above our exploration assets.

Count me in as a plonker too!

One of the few saving graces here is that there are a lot of large institutions here that will hold their feet to the fire somewhat (one would hope).

I guess it's all on Ginny/Hermione in the shorter term: it'll be interesting to see if we actually spud this month, because as far as I can see from the news, or lack there of, Toppand is still being drilled.

The issue I have is that time is ticking on (I completely agree that nearly everyone here would have bought in for the buying of production - that's certainly why I did!) and so far the PR in the last couple of weeks has probably made things worse not just in terms of the share price, but in terms of info:

For example, we now know that they're not in any processes to buy production, because they actually said as much, so it's not like we can build any upside risk into the price short term for them buying producing assets.

Then we have the point about finding barrels in the ground - they need to find a massive amount of oil for a big uptick in the price. Take EV for example - lots of oil, with a lot more to come when they get more wells done in all likelihood, but the price barely moved.

I think they've been rather naive if they think that you can just do a presentation to bolster the share price when each day is just burning the company's cash reserves.

I'm happy to keep gently buying the odd lot here and there, but the fact is on another EV like discovery we might get into the 70/80p range if we're lucky from where we are at the moment.

If someone offered me 100p right now I'd sell the lot - no question about it and if the BOD are serious about the firm going forwards they should think about taking the company private at 100p. I think most shareholders would accept that, particularly with so many adding in the placing at 75p.

It would be nice to know if the selling is mainly one party or if it's just a lot of PIs who are selling down to move cash elsewhere.

All going well, we'll see Ginny/Hermione spud this month, meaning we'll get some results out of it ~late January/early February depending on the spud date.

Fingers crossed we get a strike, or they buy in (on decent terms for us) some production, because right now it feels like we'll be back into the 50s again at this rate.

I'd love a buyback - it seems insane to me that we haven't had one already. This being said, I'm a fan of dividends too.

Ideally, for me they'd use both.

Well, it was nice to have my point made to the BOD verbatim! Thank you!

Let's see what happens. It wouldn't surprise me if while they've said they're not in any official processes if they think they might be soon and want to ensure they have an appetite in the market to fund a deal.

Let's see. Might happen, might not. Still happy to hold for now.

To be fair, I actually don't think this is a lifestyle company - mainly because they have actually put in a good chunk of their own money, so even though they're also on good salaries, that is good enough for me.

The issue I have is that I simply think they've been a bit economical with the strategy: first it was buying production, then it was exploration and swapping into production, now it is looking like buying production again...

I'm still invested here and I actually added a little bit of the stock I had sold back last week, but the problem I have is that they don't seem to have much of a desire to actually generate cash flows.

I just hope that if the BOD do buy production that they don't raise at a discount for it - I rather got the impression that asset swaps aren't likely at the moment and they said they don't want to gear much, so an equity component is inevitable.

The thing is, if they do a discounted raise to the IPO then everything since the IPO will have been a waste of time.

I think that where the BOD seem to struggle (not just here but in most companies to be fair), is that they don't seem to grasp that positive cash flows are key to having any proper share price rise here.

Oil and gas in the ground is fine, but take JOG for example (I'm not invested there) that has 172m boe of 2C reserves, but is valued at £48m.

Exactly! Let's see what happens....

Ironically, after having said all along that they should have bought production, I'd be massively hacked off if they bought it now rather than swapped into it from the assets they have - although if they're doing it all via debt than that's fine.

A new equity fund raise for production now would be a horrendous idea, that I really hope the BOD stay away from.

Yeah, in a rare moment of solidarity with the firm, they could actually be a lot worse re. communication and operationally.

I think we just need to have a very clear path to showing free cash flow generation: in fact all three of my questions on the investor meet platform basically revolve around this point. I'd like to know if they're looking at asset swaps already - i.e. would they take 2000 boepd now for EV? Maybe there's something to be said for earlier monetisation if they can find someone prepared to swap with, so they can benefit from hydrocarbon prices at the moment. I think there probably is personally.

It would be nice to get an idea of at what point they would swap assets, etc, because right now, even if they do find loads of oil in these fields, we'll still be losing cash while this process happens and ultimately cash flow is the key here to unlocking any proper return for shareholders.

Ahahahahhahaha! That surely has to be a troll.

This all being said, I should make it very clear that I am pleased to see them trying to do something to get some more interest in the firm.

Yeah, it's nice to see them doing something to try and get our name out there. The only issue I have with these publications is that because they're not impartial at all - they have very little weight to them really.

They'd be better off putting out comprehensive RNS' regarding the routes forward for monetisation, with expected time lines, and proper details.

What will ultimately drive the share price here will be the BOD delivering value to shareholders, which requires a very clear path to profitability.

I think the first step will be to see what they can do to push the ICD loan back further - this has to be sorted first I think, because without that, the firm is then in proper trouble.

I'd be quite surprised if they can't get the loan sorted, because with the increase in coal prices one would think this would feed through into assumptions going forwards here regarding the company.

I do think that they need to get their cost base down, because right now the cash generation is still pretty minuscule even with the rise in coal prices. Cash flows will ultimately drive the value here.

Yeah, I think that what we need now is an idea of what Equinor are thinking re. the next wells on EV time scale wise.

I think that the major criticism that could be fairly thrown at LBE are that they seem to only communicate when they have to, which is frustrating because I'm certain they could tell us things at the moment, but just aren't for whatever reason.

I took around 6% of my position off here a couple of weeks ago just to give me more to play with elsewhere, the plan being that I can bring (hopefully) profits in from elsewhere back to here.

Yeah, I know what you mean - it certainly doesn't look particularly appealing for incoming investors.

Part of the issue I have, is that I'd like to add more, but the price is neither far enough below my average that dripping more in makes a lot of difference to my average and on top of that the reaction so far to our drills hasn't exactly suggested that I'll get a great return by buying more at the moment.

We'll see. The firm needs to get something out soon to suggest how they're going to move forwards, particularly with EV.