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Well, I guess we'll find out in a week or so, which one it is!

https://youtu.be/lx7w4OYu22A

Here we are. 14:26

Well, maybe the hole is expected to be very dry then, because in the last presentation they said they were expecting to report late may/early June.

We must be getting very close now to some results (good or bad)!

I say it every time, but fingers crossed chaps! Even though the chance of sucess is low, with four prospects left one of these will likely come in for us (albeit, we don't know in what quantities, etc).

Certainly, its safe to say though that a discovery here would be very significant for us moving forwards.

No trouble, Rover. Best of luck to us all!

I thonk you mean Cambozola. Copernicus drills next.

Either way, you're absolutely correct. Both wells are potentially very significant if they find something substantial.

Yeah, it looks like it must be an arranged sale of some form, because no MM would be likely to take that volume at those levels, IMO.

Fingers crossed. News must be very close now I would guess, given we were told to expect it around the end of May or early June.

Well, I have continued my "drip by drip" policy and have added a little more.

We should hear something soon about Cambozola. Positive or negative, i'll keep dripping money in until we get something so good or bad that I sell.

Fingers crossed.

I think we'll only know if it's leaky after the results come out anyway, because we are quite used to getting larger trades tick through.

Unless it leaks to the press, I don't think we'll likely see anything we could use to suggest a result either way, in the trades that come through at least.

I know what you mean Paul! Although, I think we had a similar thing with one of our drills that did actually find oil. I think it was EV, but I may be wrong.

I suppose re. Other potential finds and appraisals etc, I guess a lot of it comes down to the size of any oil/gas collums. I.e if you find a 75m collum of oil it's easier to put a higher best guess estimate on recoverable volumes than a smaller collum is even across what might be a very big field.

In fact, I think that's exactly the issue with EV, is that the field is huge, but thr collum sizes aren't gigantic, which is why the current estimates are so wide for OIP and Net Recoverable.

I think that the 'issue' with Egyptian Vulture is two fold:

1. We only own 15% of it.
2. (and this is the kicker), the field is massive (80km2) and so the oil in place figure right now is 220-440mmboe, with a estimated recoverable resource of 19-63mmboe. Net to LBE this is therefore really 33-66mmboe OIP with a net recoverable resource to LBE between 2.85mmboe and 9.45mmboe.

I think EV could well become a company maker in time but the numbers need to narrow in a bit so we have a much better idea of what LBE are really netting from this discovery. This info will come with an appraisal well, which all going well will then give us an idea, but it's (frustratingly) a waiting game!

My view on the production issue has stayed the same really. Would I have preferred that they bought production? Absolutely! But the didn't and this is the strategy they're going for.

The key in them getting a good rise out of the share price will ultimately be in them finding a lot of oil in the ground. Now there's a big gamble in that, but it is what it is at the end of the day and this is the path they're on.

Fingers crossed for the Cambozola results in (hopefully) a couple of weeks time!

I think that the advantage we have now versus at the start of the drilling campaign is simply that the size of the prize for the remaining sites is very large. The chance of success is 15%, 35%, 26% and 36% for a total NET find to LBE of 110mmboe if my maths is right. We'd expect one prospect to come in and if we're lucky more.

Lots of moving parts here, but the smallest NET prospect is 19mmboe, which would more than 1.5X our current net finds to LBE so far. A

The implication I suppose is that if they're expecting to announce results near month end or very early June that they're therefore about halfway there.

So while they didn't give a figure for well depth, they've said their expecting to report on Cambozola at either the very end of the month or early June.

I'm still very gently adding stock here every time I have a few hundred pounds that I can't think of anything else to do with. So far, I've been glad I've drip fed stock in here, because otherwise the opportunity cost would have been even larger then it has been.

The thing is, one solid find of large scale (net to LBE) or a production deal with good terms and we'll double at least very quickly.

I agree with all of that. First things first with Cambozola at least, they have to find something in the ground and then we can quibble about the valuation after that.

Fingers crossed!

You get a lot of variation (as expected) in how the market has responded to the discoveries here. If you apply the same process below to Egyptian Vulture each MMboe discovered net to LBE was worth around 2p to the market in share price appreciation terms.

On that basis, if Cambozola comes in as expected the rise could be more like 79.5p (again I know the draw backs of this).

Regardless of the above, I've asked in the presentation tomorrow what depth they're currently at for Cambozola - hopefully it's relatively far through the process now with a month since the spud.

It's nice to see them not issue new equity for it, although, once again, I think we were all hoping the next transaction would be a swap of some form.

Fag packet maths for Cambozola:

Kveikje found 28-48 MMboe, so taking the mid point of 38 mmboe and LBE having 10%, (3.8 MMboe). On the day of discovery we rose ~15p at the max point (61p to 76p). 1 MMboe of dicovery in share price terms seemed to come out as 3.95p rise in the share price based on how the market valued it for Kveikje.

Now, I am fully aware that this is an apples/oranges comparison to a large extent for numerous factors, but if Cambozola came in with a discovery as expected at 159 MMboe, LBE's 25% (39.75 MMboe), would come to an expected max share price rise of 157p from where-ever we are the day before. Now, again, I know it really isn't as simple as this, but it's fairly safe to say that even with a gain of half of that we'd be more than doubled up from where the price is currently.

There's a lot of potential in these exploration plays for us making a very solid return, but it ultimately hinges on them actually finding something large for us to work with.

That's what I took away as well. Fingers crossed!