I'm still very gently adding stock here every time I have a few hundred pounds that I can't think of anything else to do with. So far, I've been glad I've drip fed stock in here, because otherwise the opportunity cost would have been even larger then it has been.
The thing is, one solid find of large scale (net to LBE) or a production deal with good terms and we'll double at least very quickly.
I agree with all of that. First things first with Cambozola at least, they have to find something in the ground and then we can quibble about the valuation after that.
Fingers crossed!
You get a lot of variation (as expected) in how the market has responded to the discoveries here. If you apply the same process below to Egyptian Vulture each MMboe discovered net to LBE was worth around 2p to the market in share price appreciation terms.
On that basis, if Cambozola comes in as expected the rise could be more like 79.5p (again I know the draw backs of this).
Regardless of the above, I've asked in the presentation tomorrow what depth they're currently at for Cambozola - hopefully it's relatively far through the process now with a month since the spud.
It's nice to see them not issue new equity for it, although, once again, I think we were all hoping the next transaction would be a swap of some form.
Fag packet maths for Cambozola:
Kveikje found 28-48 MMboe, so taking the mid point of 38 mmboe and LBE having 10%, (3.8 MMboe). On the day of discovery we rose ~15p at the max point (61p to 76p). 1 MMboe of dicovery in share price terms seemed to come out as 3.95p rise in the share price based on how the market valued it for Kveikje.
Now, I am fully aware that this is an apples/oranges comparison to a large extent for numerous factors, but if Cambozola came in with a discovery as expected at 159 MMboe, LBE's 25% (39.75 MMboe), would come to an expected max share price rise of 157p from where-ever we are the day before. Now, again, I know it really isn't as simple as this, but it's fairly safe to say that even with a gain of half of that we'd be more than doubled up from where the price is currently.
There's a lot of potential in these exploration plays for us making a very solid return, but it ultimately hinges on them actually finding something large for us to work with.
That's what I took away as well. Fingers crossed!
I've dripped a little more in today. Only a few hundred quid, but as I've said plenty of times, buying in massively bigger chunks then that feels like a waste of fire power here, with news so few and far between.
It would be rather nice with a possible wait time of 14 weeks if they gave us an idea of where they are depth wise. Just something to go on at the very least.
Not that I am expecting anyone to know this, but it would be interesting to know at three weeks in now into drilling Cambozola how far down we've got.
Cambozola has a Burial depth of 3,840m (planned as High Pressure High Temperature) - but with Egyptian Vulture they drilled down to 3720m by the look of the presentation, but that only took just over a month (wasn't a HTHP well though).
I've dripped a little more in here again. Nothing to shout about.
It will be quite interesting to see how many of the 14 weeks it actually takes to drill Cambozola. I haven't been able to find an indication elsewhere of other partners' drill time estimates.
It's quite a big prospect, so it wouldn't be that surprising if we get an indication when they find something and then another RNS later to say how much.
True to my usual form, I'll write this and then the price will tank, but it has been rather nice to see the price hold up here with a gentle increase to boot!
It will be interesting to see where it goes to. If we assume that they aren't in any discussions that are likely to go anywhere re a production deal, one would presume any positioning done now is re. wanting at the very least pre-drill risk for Cambozola.
I wonder if we'll be waiting the full 14 weeks or if this will come in sooner than that. Most of the other wells seem to have been sooner, so fingers crossed we're not waiting all that time!
Seconded. I completely agree with all of that, Paul.
Pretty well bid this afternoon - I can get spot quotes at premiums to sell £30k (not that I am at these prices). Suggests there are larger buyers sniffing around still.
10p paid. obviously a lot of buyers around today and quite a few in good size. We know this is quite leaky so maybe there's news coming.
I like how they seem to be quite keen on monetising this quickly. Now that may or may not actually happen, but it makes a good change, which makes me wonder if one of the parties involved has already made contact re. a sale/swap. Let's see.
Fingers crossed for Cambozola!
Longboat Energy, the emerging full-cycle North Sea E&P company, is pleased to announce a significant discovery in the Equinor operated Kveikje exploration well (35/10-8S) in licence PL293B (Company 10%).
The preliminary estimate of recoverable resources in Kveikje Main, being the primary target of the exploration well, is 28 to 48 MMboe (gross), above the pre-drill expectation.
The discovery has excellent reservoir quality and is close to existing infrastructure allowing for a simple development through multiple export options.
Well, fingers crossed for this week chaps! One would presume thst we must be close to news on our well, good or bad.
Well, I think really the discoveries are depressingly less relevant than they should to be. Sadly it is what it is - unless they find something absolutely monstrous. Realistically, I guess we will bumble around here until they either buy cashflows, find something huge or go bust.
My best bet is on one of the first two, but I must confess, I don't have a lot to base that on.
I thought exactly the same, Icemax!
I'd be quite surprised if that is a sell though, because I haven't been able to get quotes for even 33k shares in ages, but I suppose if the drilling results are pants, we'll know!
I've dripped a bit more in today. I'm clearly a glutton for punishment, but surely, surely(!) they'll deliver something soon!
Alternatively, put your oder in as a fill or kill - the broker will then phone the market makers and then the will either fill or decline your order at that price and quantity.
To some extent that's what baffles me... One would think that a massive amount of pressure must be on the BOD from the IIs, but there doesn't seem to be any overt sign of this.
The IIs though must be fuming, because the stock just isn't liquid enough that they could sell down even if they wanted to.