Member Info for MozzaBezza

I think it depends:

They basically have to find a metric-****-tonne of oil, but if they do then the valuation moves up a lot, because they have basically said they'll swap that for production, which would look attractive as there would be no cash outlay for that.

It'll be a long wait, I think, but the trade is still quite clearly here, IMO.

It'll be interesting to see what price we eventually settle out at. Right now, it looks like PIs are still leaving for the IIs to then mop up any extra stock they want to take.

I should be able to get another top up in here soon, although I'm in no hurry as I think there's a relatively good chance that this drifts further with the first drill looking like it'll be happening in September and with AIM volumes across the board being low over the summer, as people chase one an other in the 'popular' names.

Let's see. I just hope this all works out to be worth the wait for us!

I agree, Paul. I reckon that what happened is that the NOMAD went out and told all the major shareholders what the deal was happening and then the book build was done at a level that would satisfy all parties involved - buyers and sellers. I find it hard to believe all majors would be prepared to hold, but equally many would probably be happy to add further, so the 75p price was probably set as the equilibrium between the known buyers and sellers in the market post deal at that time.

Deals aside for a change, I think that the ultimate problem here is that the BOD have conflated 'market cap' and 'shareholder value' - which is really just the share price.

Now, one would hope they would have had the foresight to enter into pre-discovery discussions with the nearby producing assets they're interested in, to gauge interest if they find the expected volumes of oil/gas.

I think it was a bit rich of him saying how much he believes in the company after having given himself those options and a rather hefty payrise.

Utterly ridiculous, IMO. The fact they have the audacity to award themselves those options after already awarding themselves substantial payrises is amazing.

Well, I think there must be a lot of shifting sround going on here, as the average trade size has rocketed.

I think what probably happens is that we wobble around for a month or so as the sellers sell ans the buyers buy. We'll probably settle below 75p, because that's what often happens, but I think it's unlikely that we'll end up massively below that. Sub 60p seems very unlikely.

Then coming into mid August I reckon we'll see people position ahead of drilling in September.

Should be an interesting one to watch unfold. Esspecially, as we now actually have news to look forward to.

I agree with your first statement, but not the second.

I think this is a very good exploration deal and I am happy to hang around to see how it unfolds. In fact, I will likely add stock as time goes on.

However, I do think that in light of the continual production narrative that shareholders were given it isn't unwarranted that many, including my self, are a bit narked that they didn't get a production deal.

I think that a lot of the investment here prior to this deal was on the bassis of securing a production deal and likely was also assuming Andrew Austin style premium raises to fund such deals.

This is a geared deal, but I feel that the initial gesring is a lot lower thsn if they had just bought cash creating assets.

I can understand why they don't want to say what their terms for doing a production deal are, but that being said, it would be quite nice to know as a shareholder.

I think if they acquire production it will be via swapping some of these exploration assets if proved up.

I've added a load more here today. Eventually we'll crack the 0.7p level, but it's been a tricky one to get through so far! Director buys are always good to see, hopefully it signals the direction we're heading.

I think this will wobble around for a while pre drills, which even while they're coming up I think once would be better to assume they're closer to the end of Q3 than the beginning for a margin of safety.

It was never a particularly liquid share anyway, so my feeling is that there will be/has been an exodus of those who aren't looking for exploration exposure.

One to keep very gently dripping in money into I feel, although, I must confess it feels slightly like throwing good money after bad, but so much just hinges on the drill results now. Let's see.

"We're not in any processes at this stage". I think that makes it pretty clear, TBH, that right now they're just focussing on these targets, while they have also said they have targets they're looking at.

Sounds to me like from what HH is saying live, they're making it pretty clear that they're looking to swap into production, even thought they're still looking at production deals now.

£30k buy. Nice to see some size coming in!

Yes, I spotted that. Odd... Might be leaky, but one would think there would be more chatter if so.

At the end they make a big point of previous asset swaps done to get in production after proving up exploration, so I reckon that's the plan again with these assets.

Reads very well. I think this should underline the cashflow generation going forwards if they can keep this orderbook growing.

I think you're right. To an extent there is a bigger question about how fast they can replace that order book - if they can for the time being keep new orders coming in at the same rate older orders are fulfilled that would be an acceptable compromise for the time being.

The next set of results will be the key, but they are in the right place at the right time and the low free float should make for a big rise if they can follow through with the cash generation.

That's the impression I had too, Paul, re. the loan.

Sellers out again today. One would hope they'll structure the whole process of this deal in such a way as to get a bit of momentum behind us post completion - although looking at how they've handled a lot of this process, I wouldn't hold my breath.

A few things we need to see, IMO:
. Understanding of the process with these farm-ins; is it to swap assets down the line, actually produce, etc?
. Are they still looking to buy production assets?
. Large scale PR campaign explaining the above points.

I'm certainly not selling now. Although, I'll only add on sustained drops now, rather than continuing to drip money in as I have done previously.

WhirlawStones, I think there were a lot of PIs who bought in here on the basis of acquiring production and associated cashflows. An exploration deal wouldn't meet that.

Certainly, that's exactly why I bought in, but I'm lucky enough that I can allow my stock to sit here a bit longer even though it doesn't really fit with my initial plan for the position on my book.