Member Info for MozzaBezza

For all of those worried about if Rodhette will come to anything due to the lower than expected volumes found, it looks like it probably will:"The discovery is significant for the area says Torger Rød, Vår Energi CEO: “With the Rødhette result, Vår Energi celebrates a sixth exploration discovery this year, as the exploration team continue a successful 2021 campaign. The licensees will now assess the discovery, as well as maturing other targets in the license and the surrounding area in order to add resources for a future tie-back to Goliat.”http://www.oilandgastechnology.net/news/var-energi-finds-oil-rodhette-offshore-northern-norway

I hadn't spotted this, Paul! Thanks!

It's quite interesting. I guess with hydrocarbon prices where they currently are, producers want to hit the ground running with getting oil/gas out of the ground.

If that's the case then I am in the same boat! I've not got so many of these that there's a lot of point in derisking until I have any of gains to derisk.

I'd be surprised if there's any real insider trading here, because at the end of the day there probably wasn't with the first drill, by the look of things, just Sneller buying.

Now he might be selling again, but he'd be at breakeven at best on that if that's the case.

I think this volume is just generic churn that happens to sit on the bid rather than the ask. Personally, I think all we can do is wait.

Fingers crossed!

I can see where you're coming from, but the free float is only about 31% before you factor in large holders under the TR1 level.

I'd say we're not that liquid a stock (particularly for the size of the market cap) on the basis that historically and post placing you often cannot get single click liquidity in large size. It has to be a special day for me to be able to deal 30k shares in one hit and usually the taps turn off for me at 15k or above.

TBF, Sid, with that 50k trade you maybe have a point.

TBH, because the stock isn't that liquid it may just be a few sellers have all chased eachother.

Certainly, it doesn't take that much to push the price either way at the moment.

Of course if it comes in higher or lower than that, I'd adjust either-way. At the top end you're looking at more like 160p/share at the $4/boe figure, so it has the potential to be a massive uplift. Equally, if it's completely dry I can\t imagine the market will be too happy, but I'm not that convinced there's a lot of Egyptian Vulture priced in, but we'll see.

Well, I've always used the firm's $4/boe figure (although they say transactions are occurring above that now on the Norwegian Continental Shelf):

Chance of success: 25%
LBE interest: 15%
Gross mean resource: 103mmboe
Upside to 208mmboe

So at the gross mean resource, that's: (15%*103)*$4 =$61.8m, or £44.83m, which is 78.86p/share.

I actually have no idea how long each stage of the drilling process takes, but I suppose four weeks will be if everything is bang on time and running to schedule, which seems unlikely, only because rarely in life does everything tick over perfectly.

I just hope we actually find some hydrocarbons, because this is undoubtedly the well the price will be most geared to in this year's campaign.

I echo those sentiments. We should all going well, get some news from Egyptian Vulture this week (assuming they're all on schedule).

Fingers crossed for a nuce big strike, but TBH, even if they only found half of what they expect it will still be worth ~40p to LBE.

Fingers crossed!

Yes, I guess that all going well, we'll hear something this week re. Egyptian Vulture. Fingers crossed!

I know a lot of us have this debate on a regular basis, but I would really love to see a big buyback here and would encourage all who think similarly to write to the firm to express this.

If they keep their distributions the same for next year, then we'll be trading at a dividend yield of 16% at current prices. Even if we were at the same rate as Genel (~9%), we'd have a share price of ~360p.

Most shareholders here will ultimately derive the majority of their gains through capital growth not dividends I would imagine and doing a buyback doesn't stop the firm continuing to give dividends.

The lack of a strong share price rise at 84USD Brent is just getting silly. We need a buyback, IMO.

Ah, right! Thanks, Ice.

I was going with the estimates Paul dragged out of one of the documents:

Rodhette: 46 days
Egyptian Vulture: 39 days
Mugnetind: 46 days

Nevertheless, nice to finally be getting RNS' out of the firm!

Well, we should get news here pretty soon, it spudded a week after Rodhette, but was set to take about a week less to drill.

I was expecting results for Rodhette at the end of the month, so I don't know if that was ahead of schedule for some reason and if the same factors can be applied to Egyptian Vulture, but we'll see.

Egyptian Vulture has a lower chance of success than Rodhette at ~25%, but the potential size of the prize is a lot higher.

Fingers crossed!

In defence of II, I've always previously had the dividends arrive very quickly too (on the payment day for the last ones I think), so something has obviously gone wrong this time around.

I'm still waiting for II and Halifax as of about 8.30 this morning.

I think in the current market they'll be able to sell that to a near field or put their own production though a near field.

Here's the thing, if they do that, at 10mmboe, it's still worth (at $4) $8m to LBE. Obviously, they have to wait and see what the operator wants to do, but if the operator green lights it then it's a decent outcome for LBE.

Not bad chaps/chapettes,

It's under what they expected, but it sounds like thry think they can still monetise it, which is the key - esspecially with hydrocarbon prices where they are.

Get this man a medal! Thanks, Paul.

Ditto, Paul.