Member Info for MozzaBezza

Well, at least they didn't raise at a discount. Let's just hope that it's massively oversubscribed (although I suspect if it was it would have gone at a premium) so we get a good move post deal completion.

That's the biggest question for me: are they still looking at production deals in the short term?

One of the reasons this deal is interesting is because its the other way around from what we expected. HH had said that they planned to "bolt on" exploration, so I wonder if this might be about trying to replicate the asset swaps they had previously done on any significant find so that they don't have to raise big sums of money for buying cashflows.

Personally, i'd like to see the path to cash flows, because ultimately that's what this is all about., although on the little info we have this looks like a good deal on the face of it.

Yes, I spoke to a former consultant at LBE in late January (I won't say who they are, because they asked me not to), but while they said little of note, they confirmed what HH said in his interviews that financing the deal (if it was a good deal) won't be a problem based on what the big shareholders had signaled.

I guess that the question is: do the institutions like the deal? Let's hope so!

Hopefully they won't need to add warrants as an incentive here and can just get a pure equity raise away.

All good analysis, chaps.

Very exciting week ahead. Fingers crossed for a premium placing!

I completely agree. I'd like ti see this only go to institutions, TBH. Then anyone else who wants in can buy on relist in the market.

That's a good point, Paul. Although, I would hope that the institutions have had more info than us during this process and so hopefully there isn't too much quibbling about the deal itself.

Let's see. We should hear from the book builders soon, I think.

Does that presumably mean you know the subscription price then, Daveri? Sounds like a hint.

The BOD are in here at 100p, so I hope that's the land in the sand they won't raise below, but we'll see.

That's a good summary, Paul. I think that having spoken so much in the two interviews about production, to then not have that as the first deal is odd.

Right now I am cautiously optimistic, but really we need to wait for:

1. Confirmation the deal completes.
2. The price of the new equity raised.

Then we can go on. I think right now most of us would be very happy with a premium raise at least over 200p. This would probably have been a certainty on a production deal, but is much harder to say on a deal like this, where value is harder to put a price on.

Hard to say really. I think my opinion will be guided somewhat by how the equity raise goes, but prior to that here's my view:

Broadly speaking:
1. I think they were probably after this for a while, because they've been referring to 'bilateral' talks for ages.
2. This does at least pretty much guarantee steady news for a good while now, as drills happen, etc.
3. It's not obvious that this is the whole hog - there may well be more deals to come.

Outside of that, I do think it's a shame that we're not talking about straightforward production figures, but it also doesn't necessarily look like on big strikes that this field would be that far from production anyway.

Ultimately, the sentiment factors here all point short term to how the raise is done. The thing is, they'll raise £35m and then get lending for £52m on top of that, so relative to our pre-suspension market cap of ~£8m there's obviously upside just due to the gearing. How much of that will be reflected in the equity raise is right now anyone's guess.

I'm not saying it works like this, because it doesn't, but pre suspension you were paying £8m for £7m in cash. Post deal then you're paying £35m for £35m raised + £7m in cash pre deal + £52m of debt access.

My gut feeling is that shareholders probably do well here as long as the raise isn't comically low at ~50p for example. Should be at a premium, IMO, but I would say that.

Well, we've finally got here.

Firstly it's not production, but i'll go away and do some reading and provide some thoughts later.

I agree with the frustrations, but I'd be surprised if they structured a deal in a massively dilutive way, because the BOD's incentive plan kicks in at a minimum of 200p and they currently own ~8,3% of the firm as it currently stands - I think something would have had to have gone seriously wrong to have reached that point.

Thanks, Paul. Much appreciated.

I think that unless we get a deal sometime soon, we'll be waiting until September for the next update, which no doubt will say exactly what the last lot said.

It cuts both ways this wait - on one hand I can keep gently picking up stock, but on the other hand that will only work in my favour if they get a good deal over the line, with equity raised at premiums.

Right now even I'm getting a bit tired of the wait; especially as there will be some form of suspension post any deal announcement anyway.

I'll be really hacked off if after all of this wait they structure it in such a way that one could buy in post deal without paying much of a premium to the share price - I'm hoping that the gearing of our low market cap, combined with the BOD's incentives sets us up nicely on any deal for a raise at 250/300p, but we'll have to wait and see.

Looks like the interim president and prime minister were released overnight too. All looking much better generally.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210527-mali-s-interim-president-and-pm-released-says-military-official-afp-1

Thanks for that, Paul. Much appreciated.

Yeah, I get the impression that they were a bit like this at Faroe too, so in some respects I'm not surprised.

Nevertheless, it remains a very frustrating wait!

Well, here's what we do know (from their own recent RNS'):

- "Longboat is currently participating in a number of potential acquisition processes where we have unique knowledge"

- "Several processes have been launched recently and we expect more assets to come to market"

- "We are also encouraged by good progress with the processes currently underway, a number of which we are participating in."

Also, they always make a point about "bilateral" processes, which may mean that they're are (presumably) former Faroe assets they think they can grab from maybe more than one party involved.

Thanks, Paul. Much appreciated.

I've had that before too, when you email them to clarify things and then they just stick an RNS out.

They could say a lot while not giving specifics, so I really wish they would give us an update!

That was my guess too - most of those shares would locked in for 12 months, so I wonder if this is about the unlocked in portion. TBH, if the company can pay that out in cash (naturally factoring in the discount to the current price) then that might be worth it to avoid any dilution.

Fingers crossed!

While I can see why they wouldn't want to, they still could say a lot I think: how many data rooms they're in, how advanced any deals are, size of current deals in bopd terms, etc.

I agree with the likelihood of the drifting price, although I'd actually be surprised if we got a pre-AGM update, because so far they haven't exactly been forthcoming with updates - esspecially as they only have to persuade the institutions to vote through the relevant clause for continuing the business, whcih should be easy.

Words really can't describe how boring this wait is!