Member Info for MozzaBezza

I know exactly what you mean. It would be quite nice to see some evidence that they're doing anything at the moment!

Hopefully, my reservations will be proved wrong.

At least with the BP assets it looks like they are at least thinking about splitting them up a bit, which would help LBE be able to gather up smaller parcels. Fingers crossed we hear something positive soon!

I understand that last summer you were made aware of a book build, for a deal that presumably then fell through. Did you ever get an idea of the size of said build?

It would be interesting to know if it fell in their 50-200m USD range initially stated or if it was outside of that (although I understand that the more production they buy, the more debt they'll have access too).

Bar the fact they can draw a salary in this time, there's a big incentive for them to do a deal with how their options work.

Also, the institutions will be breathing down their necks too I would think.

My gut feeling (for the little that's worth) is that they'll pull something together and hopefully it will be bigger than the 3-5k bopd that HH stated initially in interviews

Right now they could buy 2k bopd and I'd be happy, TBH. Something is better than nothing right now, IMO.

Buy or sell, ultimately only you can decide.

For me, LBE is a large position on my book for the kind of play that it is (cash shell seeking an RTO), but it's actually only ~6.5% of my total exposure, so the wait here is immensely irritating, but not really the end of the world providing they do actually do a deal in the coming weeks and months.

Some advice I heard hedge fund manager Stephen Cohen (SAC Capital and Point 72) give out, was that if you ever start to feel uncomfortable in a position you can just half it and then if you still feel uncomfortable, half it again.

That's not advice, but these situations are never necessarily black and white. I have sold bits of LBE before to then trade elsewhere and have (fortunately) done well enough elsewhere that I could increase my LBE holding as a result when I came back in.

I share your frustrations.

I'll be honest, my concern is less about the time it has taken to do a deal and more that they have maybe had good deals limed up that they have then compromised by quibbling on.

We'll see. Hopefully we'll either get a deal pre results or hear more on thr results day.

This stock is nuts. 25k shares bought at 80p now and they're bidding big premiums for loads.

I guess as it happened at the usual 11am auction period, there must have been something odd going on with how the order book was looking at the time - presumably someone pre 11am had some orders on the book that would have pinged us out of auction massively higher or lower than where we should have been if it hadn't gone into a price monitoring extension.

Very sorry looking share price today. I think that there are undoubtedly bored sellers (and it's hard to blame them TBH), but the fault here really lies in the BOD and their lack of communication.

This has really always been a binary play on them doing a good RTO, but as the markets are doing so well elsewhere the opportunity cost is getting bigger and bigger for not taking part in other parts of the markets.

I only hope that those of us who have held, we are well rewarded for it.

Well, let's see what they say on the 23rd in the FY results.

If they haven't done a deal by then (and I won't hold my breath), I'd like to see them actually present a more detailed outlook:how many deals they're currently in negotiations on, general asset sizes in BO(e)PD terms, financing, furthest advanced deals, etc.

The "we're sticking to our strategy and leveraging industry contacts" simply isn't enough to go on after over a year of waiting. Particularly, because while it has become more popular to do as much of the raising and deal related paperwork in the background to prevent very long suspensions, I think we'll have a few weeks of suspension at the very least on any deal.

The whispers going around are of a tech acquisition of some form. I think there's probably a lot to back this up as so many people have accounts with Peterhouse that whispers will do the rounds as no doubt they have to raise to do any RTO.

We'll see. I think they have something up their sleeves here, but I base that only on gut feeling rather than any sensible research.

On one hand I feel like a massive conspiracy theorist believing this is all being manipulated to keep the price here, but it just doesn't make a lot of sense on its own.

For example, how that person sold 15k at 70p I have not a clue, as it just hasn't been that liquid at any point today for me. Add on top of that how loads have been sold at 70p and yet they won't shift the bid to below 70p and something just doesn't add up.

Weird, as they'll now take 10k shares at 0.7035 before it goes NT.

Odd that they'll take that now, but would basically bid nothing for me for more than 150 shares for two days.

Have you tried a market order for that?

If they can't offer 13k shares now then it adds fuel to my theory that most of these sells are transfers for some form.

I had always thought this would be a bit big for LBE, but actually if you look at what Enquest paid for the Golden Eagle Area from Suncor (~10k boepd, $325m initial cost, with additional contingent consideration of $50m on oil price changes between 2021-2023), Marubeni's MonArb starts to look actually affordable for LBE.

Marubeni's stake in MonArb is also ~10k boepd and while it's a mature field, it has been having its life extended quite significantly with further infill drilling, etc.

Now, this is all pointless speculation on my part, but actually, their prospectus says they would spend up to $500m, so you never know, it's more likely than we expect perhaps that they are looking at bigger rather than smaller assets as they initially suggested.

Binding bids are expected this month for Marubeni's MonArb stake, so I guess we'll find out soon.

https://www.offshore-mag.com/production/article/16754994/twinplatform-complex-to-maximize-montrose-area-resources

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/01/15/business/corporate-business/marubeni-north-sea/

https://www.offshore-mag.com/production/article/16754994/twinplatform-complex-to-maximize-montrose-area-resources

Well, clearly they did read my emails even if they didn't reply to them. Many thanks HH and the team!

For me, I think they have to come back with new equity raised at at least 150p for me to be happy with this and that's only because I've been able to average down into the high 70s.

Still no reply to my query so far! I think this either must mean a deal is very close or that they are grossly incompetent and I know from my past dealings with them and their track record that the latter is unlikely.

Nor, I.

There's something that's not adding up here, because someone is getting a lot of liquidity on bid when no one else can, so either a MM is doing someone a favour, or it's not actually going to a MM and there's already a buyer lined up - so it's in effect a transfer.

Personally, I think it's the latter, but I base that only on gut instinct and nothing more.

Well, again, it's the problem with their communication (or lack there of) style - if they're doing loads and using the opportunities as they currently see them to in fact do multiple deals at once (HH said they might have to do one or two deals to get to the ultimate goal in his interview with LSE think), then I think a PA is an acceptable expense.

If he's twiddling his thumbs just waiting for deal flows then it probably isn't.

Might be one of the MMs is mates with one of the Blackrock managers and got then to provide a bit of liquidity.

Certainly, market makers do that between eachother from time to time.

I have emailed Line Cecilie Veiberg, who is Hedvig's temporary replacement while she is in maternity leave, so hopefully she might be able to comment on a FY results date.

I still haven't a reply - which is strange because it would be very easy to find out roughly at least when they intend to release their final results!

I think I was more tolerant of their "less is more" strategy earlier on when HH said they hoped to achieve something in the first half of 2020 and that they had had many meetings with some deals were more advanced than others (his words not mine from the LSE interview).

The problem is that is the opportunity cost of holding here has been very substantial with the current markets having been on fire and if they don't come out with a very solid deal priced very attractively from the perspective of those in pre-deal then it adds a lot of salt to that wound.

Now looking at the founders shares and incentive plan I do think that's quite likely to be how it works, but right now being limboland is becoming rather unbearable.