Member Info for mowzerrocks

i would suspect that a lot of work has been done with the prototype and LSTM - trying to get the right S&S as far as they could validate it there. Samples have been a real issue during the summer. That obviously must have involved some reworking to improve performance and then reworking technical transfer perhaps? If they are 'getting ready for clinical validation' then I would assume that the optimisation is over and TT is near complete, so they must have an idea. This is where Al's house becomes a positive... if it weren't 'good' then he would be insider trading.

so potentially that could be what the MMs based the drop to on Monday.

PL75 - I've noticed you are way more zen about the deramping these days... it is nice. We all discussed impact of vaccine on Avacta and we all know that testing will still be a major priority... John Bell says exactly that... the vaccine is a big unknown and we have lack of newsflow so we are going to subjected to the sentiment. Not much you can do about it anyway... sell up or shut up and be a useful contributor. Some just like getting their name in a subject... don't give them the thrill as you say.

MFM are you really that simple in the mind that you correlate failure of the product coming from a SP Crash - usually it is the other way round. We have not had any sign of failure just a perceived delay based on CEO being very bullish with timelines. I can fault him there for sure... but I can fault you in so many ways judging by your posting history.

No we want it yesterday... until we get it we will be subject to sentiment. I think 'delays' as we perceive it whilst we watch all the tweet trickle through and all the reading between the lines is really becoming a total PITA. Probably best to just switch off for a bit. No point in going crazy here. The rest of the market seems fairly even/down... the excitement of vaccine is wearing off and I think reality will settle back down. We saw prices go nuts like this during the summer... and here we are again. Will lockdown get extended? At these rates I can't see it being eased, can you????

Usain - if this were a football game I would potentially be on your side. Thing is - this is all about risk and reward. I've made a fair bit on on your ship already. I still have some more in during the dip and am up again. The potential here to 2-3 bag from here is more likely than over on your ship. I think if AVCT does product a quality product, then I think your ship might get a very leaky hull. Risk reward buddy...

Sage - I think the Mass Spec validition is just wrapping up - there was a post on this on the weekend. I would still think that information is sitll (sigh) imminent.

Yes absolutely it all looks good on paper... and there needs to be validation and orders before confidence is restored in the sentiment driven market. I do think the tide is beginning to shift in terms of sentiment towards testing though... much more questions are being raised with regards to vaccination programmes & logistics and unknowns... particularly around the pfizer one. There is so much that can't be understood/measured with so little time behind us. We are only what 9 months into the period when reasonable samples could be studied?

I am happy for the balanced discussion, but I think everyone needs to think about the PR aspect here... Pfizer Albert Bourla sells 62% on announcement of vaccine. Vaccine hasn't been peer reviewed (absolute shocker says GSK person) and then dumps and runs? Why? Vaccine has HUGE logistical issues and sets marketing in a free spin with massive spikes in leisure and testing stocks in free fall. As soon as new less problematic vaccine is available (maybe oxford?) then Pfizer will be forgotten. Never mind Albert is ok... Now a vaccination programme will take at least a year to roll out here (very few dispute that) and globally several years. Due to compressed development timescales, we are effectively guinea pigs for any vaccine. This will have an impact on take up and from what is clear from the Pfizer data is that it won't be effective for everyone. Those will covid symptoms will still want/need to know what they have... so it can be checked and monitored and the government will need to keep a track of the spread for at least 2-4 years... albeit at a reduced requirement probably. I can't see how testing can be stopped if we don't know how long even a vaccine might be good for? Or even in the case of mutations. The market as I see is there, and Avacta certainly have a chance at it... but we won't know until the figures are in. That is where we are now and we will be subjected to sentiment until that is cleared up.

Chengdo... I get where you are coming from - however I don't acutally think the LFT HAS to be as accurate as a lab test - I would doubt it could be due to less stringent testing conditions (lay people, squaddies etc). The point is to weed out a minimum of 7-8/10 people with the virus from spreading it. The other 2-3 are likely to have low viral loads so less infectious (at that point in time - so freq testing is required). There will still be the virus spreading, but if we can reduce the R then the ecomony can carry on. Those that do get symptoms take the test and if positive, early treatment like SNG001 can start. I don't think we are trying to replace the lab tests (remember we are just trying to reduce the number of false positive so as to not overwhelm the labs).

Dear MB - That would be adding a third arm to the Avacta business model and I doubt at this critical juncture there is enough experienced individuals in the market to do that. Why would do go to that effort when another more experienced company can do it for you. However - didn’t we speculate that the government was injecting cash into expansion for these manufacturers? I guess it could be that they don’t want to be tied into government conditions given the hamhocks performance during this pandemic

Really interesting as somehow feels like we have been parroting a lot of his findings for months... hardly unexpected. Don’t want people with negative tests cuddling grandma... really want an easily repeatable home test for 5 days before trip to grandmas.

Link from LBC
https://amp.lbc.co.uk/radio/special-shows/call-keir/labour-leader-excluded-chancellor-covid-financial/?__twitter_impression=true

The UK Condor Programme should have been paying for samples from Australia all Summer if samples were the problem. I mean - how else could they have got UK companies a head start!?

Stop loss would have put you at a sale of 103

nearly wet my pants... for the 3rd time this week. How can a trade be delayed for 2 days...? Assuming that is what it was.

did anyone see the spike to 144 - delayed trade from Monday?

I'm sure that social media would be very different result. I'm not sure how LBC polled, but the truth is probably somewhere in between - but I think more will become extremely uncomfortable as details come out. An adverse reaction will no doubt crop up and everyone will wait to see the outcome. I would definitely not have both parents take the vaccine - it would be too much of a risk for those with small children.

Good that the tender has been extended / another one put in. Whether this is specifically for Avacta - it is reading between the lines again... but I suspect that everyone is rushing now as Hamhock has run with the vaccine story far too early for brownie points. News in America isn't as positive about the vaccine (storage conditions and logistics etc). You could argue that his hand was forced by Pfizer - as that a-hole wanted to sell some shares before anyone else (apparently agreed plan from Aug). On LBC this morning - survey said (1000) 1 in 4 were unsure/would not of take vaccine. I think as and when more press coverage gets into the details of the study so far, it might go towards 1 in 3 won't take it. As more information comes, I honestly think testing will still be critical. As there were still ones that contracted covid that had the vaccine. We will definitely still need to know if people are still getting it!

This is what I was saying before - the governement tender process is fluid... there will always be another. Matt Hamhock is going to just keep spending it until it Covid is completely under control. Even then once the test is manufactured and EVEN if there is a vaccine there will STILL be applications were testing is needed. Hospitals. GP Surgeries. Airlines. Cruise Ships. Care Homes. Certain workplaces. Schools. Universities. Not everyone will take the vaccine. But everyone who gets covid symptoms will want to know if that is what it is. There might be specific therapeutics like SNG001 that need to be administered to completely cut down the death rates.