Member Info for Montmuzard

Would a sale get us as far as 1p, especially once we've factored any tax (plus exercised warrants etc.) in? Surely we'd need to be looking at over £200m now to get that far. Is that conceivable without, say, a huge copper credit coming out of left field? Is that even possible without more drilling? I don't know the answers btw!

I'd be more than happy with half a penny on a sale, although increasingly I'm (personally) hopeful of a JV and I don't mind waiting months or years longer to realise as much value as possible. Just imagine what the share price would ultimately re-rate to if EUZ had a decent slice of the £3bn+ we know about along with the financing to keep digging and proving up more? Imagine if that was the declared rationale, too: i.e. "We're taking 30% of this JV, have enough money to build the mine, the expertise to start mining, and are confident we can prove up even more and double the size of the resource over time..."

I'd happily take foie gras next year over jam tomorrow.

Me too. For the sake of a few hundred quid here and there, the potential consequences of being locked out of the coming rerate and missing out on realising the full value of many (tens of) thousands do not seem worth it to me. Not to mention the stress of trying to play every small movement in the market to eke out and then rinse and repeat 5% profit. Hold long, hold strong for the 500%+ that is inbound.

MMs having a go around 0.70? Nice try boys. Sticky sticky. GLA.

I must say, this is all terribly exciting. I ummed and aahed a few weeks ago about buying more when were languishing in the mid-30s but I'm bloody glad I did. Not letting go of a single one until we're well into the pennies.

Very useful thoughts, thanks. I suppose a lot comes down to what position you're in. If you're building a new position, 1.3p in a long-term perspective is always going to be very cheap anyway so you might as well consider taking some. If, on top of that, you're worried news might drop and want to ensure you've accumulated beforehand, or have an existing position with a high average towards the 2s, it might make sense to pay 1.3s now to ensure your position is where you want it to be. In both cases, you can then add further if there is a drop towards 1p and keep averaging down.

I'm in neither camp at the moment - not desperate to increase my position, and little spare cash as most tied up anyway - so am not too worried if we do indeed keep bobbing around 1p for the foreseeable so I can add occasionally on weakness. As I said yesterday, GS can take all summer as far as I'm concerned. My view is that news is probably still some way off too, although if I weren't happy with my position as it is, I would be a little nervous re: Wozzie's claims about what's incoming.

@Ophidian: Just out of interest, what do you see happening if - hypothetically speaking - news were to drop this afternoon or Monday am? How would the MMs seek to claw back their position amidst massive buying pressure? Would the assumption simply be that there would be enough profit takers to allow them take some at the higher price with a wider spread?

Performance is largely irrelevant on a share like this, since it's a binary situation: one day it's worth not much, the next it's worth squillions. It's all very well saying "it was worth a lot more x-years ago" but that would only signify anything meaningful if you were expecting linear growth over time. Moreover, when it was worth 0.42 or whatever, and had fewer shares in issue, there was no prospect (at that point) of realising the value of the asset. There is now, and the price of unlocking it has been dilution. I realise it's painful for those that bought in very early who've had to continue averaging down, but I'm sure we'd all rather we were at where we are now than where we were then.

I didn't think it was a P&D either. Although it didn't seem to disclose anything truly market sensitive, it was quite rampy and both the kind of thing you could imagine an optimistic director saying to a supportive investor after a few shandies (and let's hope it was) but also not the kind of thing said director would want on a public forum in black and white while in the process of closing a $100m RCF, courting massive city funds and HNWIs, and wanting to release serious news in due course. The sheer scale of what's coming means the company has to be utterly, utterly squeaky clean.

Yeah, doing a dummy sell is an easy way to see how they're interpreting the share price at that moment in time. Just don't accidentally hit the sell button right now! Or look on Google which is usually pretty accurate (i.e. not 15 mins delayed).

It's not the number of shares you have, but where the share price is at. If you're on HL, their system can't cope with the extra decimal place, so it's currently at 0.02p, but as soon as it hits (I think) 0.027p in the real world, your holding will jump up to show a value based on 0.03p, and it'll stay there until 0.037p and so on. Once we get over 0.1p then it should be more precise. Hopefully some time this afternoon :-)

I also don't care if this takes some time to start playing out properly. The BOD can take all summer as far as I'm concerned, even if keeps bumping around 1p on no substantive news (and my average is close to 2p). Anything that bores the traders by stimulating their attention deficit impulse and and offers LTHs the opportunity to keep steadily accumulating under the radar before it goes bang is fine by me.

Long time lurker, first time poster here. Solana's absolutely right: if you've made money in the Covid stocks, now is definitely the time to get out. Simple maths, I think, tells you that: it's going to take a lot for some of them to do another 100% whereas ALGW is surely going to do many hundreds of percent in short order once things start moving.

That was also my thinking a few weeks ago when I sold out of NCYT at a healthy 40% profit which I recycled into my longs, ALGW amongst them. That was the day before it got FDA approval and a week before it briefly hit £5. If I'd held on as long as Solana, I'd now have double my ALGW holding (and double many of my others). Ha ha. Never mind. Can't look back, only forward. Still the right long-term decision.

Some great posters on this board; hope it remains that way when the herd arrives.

In all seriousness, what would we be looking at in a JV-type scenario? I may be way out here - and have far less expertise than most on here, so feel free to chuck tomatoes if so - but some rough back of the fag packet sums might suggest:

Asset worth minimum £4bn (because in any JV/go-it-alone scenario we'd surely be proving more up, right?) and 20bn shares in issue, assuming all outstanding warrants are exercised. Then £40m to build the mine in exchange for, let's say, 50% of the company (or even 0% if it's the regional government financing it). So, on this imagined scenario, EUZ going forward may have a stake in £2bn of recoverable assets or £100m/year over 20 years (I realise it could be 30 or 40, and that much of the asset might not be ultimately recovered, but just using as an example). Deduct, what, 50% for taxes, salaries and other capex? That's roughly speaking, £50m/year returned to shareholders or 0.25p/share. A quarter of a penny every year for two decades: this is what some have been expecting we might get as a one-off for selling the company outright! What would the share price re-rate to in such a scenario? Maybe not 23p (we can hope!) but certainly a few pence. That obviously goes up further, too, if any of the assumptions here - warrants, capex, taxes, size of asset, proportion of any JV - are too conservative.

Even revising that down looks pretty juicy: say, a 25% stake in a JV on a project worth 2.5bn with 60% for costs/taxes gives EUZ around £250m net or c.£12.5m/year. That's a 0.0625p dividend for 20 years, even with 20bn shares in issue (more than three times the current share price). On this fairly bleak scenario, you would still presumably be looking at a share price over a penny.

If these sums are even half-way within the bounds of accuracy, it makes you question why we would even want an outright sale (I know there are many good reasons why, but still...) when there's potentially a massive prize waiting for whoever has the patience to see this all the way through. Or, put it a different way: if a JV is a possibility, why would the BOD accept anything other than £200m+ to not take that course of action? Would love to see others' workings and thoughts on this. Exciting times. Good luck all.

But what it is, ain't exactly clear
Stop, listen, what's that sound,
Everybody look, what's going down!

Prediction: in a few days' time, instead of moaning about the price being stuck at 0.018p for an eternity everyone is going to be complaining about the infestation of rainbow chasing muppets and the fact we all wished we'd bought more at that price. Who cares though? GLA, DYOR etc. It might be happening at last: 22.5% up according to Google.

Well this has made my day. I sold out of NCYT at under £2 (nice profit, but not what it could have been) to extend my positions in various longs and cut my averages, EUZ and GLR amongst them. I had spent the past week or so punching myself in the head, but am now feeling like it might have been the right decision. GLA!!

First time poster, long time lurker. Been building a stake in EUZ for about two years: lost out a bit on the spike and DB placing fiasco, but have been steadily carrying on and averaging down.

Struggling to see what the problem is: surely we all know roughly what the asset is worth, and that is many multiples of where we're at now, even if the BOD only manage a sale at the lower end (£50m? £75m?) but potentially much more. I've always been hopeful of more than 0.5p once remaining warrants are exercised, tax is factored in etc. but in the current market even 0.2p would be a substantial uplift from where we're at now (although I realise some people have quite high averages and would want more).

To my mind, focusing on market cap only works for blue chips or companies with steady growth profiles. For a commodity exploration firm like EUZ, the market cap is entirely dependent on selling the asset/company. There's no middle ground. It's not like you gradually go from £1m to £10m to £50m to £100m. One day you're worth a few million; the next day everything changes and you're worth tens or hundreds of millions. It's the latter we're all waiting for. What's in the middle is largely irrelevant (notwithstanding, again, the impact of the placings on individual investors).

Also, could delaying the mets until early April not also be quite fortuitous for existing holders? If the price stays down here until early in the new tax year, it's a gift. The worst thing that could happen, in my view, is a massive spike on April 4th.

I've really enjoyed the excellent insight from various members of this board, too. Especially Oil, Lloyd, Shed, Bricks, Storey etc. Thanks hugely. We should all make the most of it: it's only a matter of time before things do start happening and it's infested with herds of rainbow-chasing numpties.