Member Info for Montmuzard

Jesus, look at the size of that rainbow over there in the distance towards treasure island - we can't be many nautical miles away now, going at this pace (!)

"Nice 430k buy at 1.889"

This is where I think I have a slightly different view to Giles on the free float question. I take the point that there will be sellers all the way up to 30p. But... surely the question is: who and how much will they sell? Of course there will be the usual day-traders and ten percenters, but it strikes me that it's also the case that many will be holding very long (including myself) especially if there's any whiff of a potential takeover.

So, even with just 20% in sticky hands, which could be more like 40% or 50%, that proportion of what is a relatively limited number of shares in issue, doesn't equate to many actual shares at all. Once ALGW starts drifting onto people's radars and the herd arrive, and they also want to buy 100K, half a million, or a million shares, the stock just won't be there. At certain price points, it might be impossible for the MMs to prise more than a few hundred thousand out of people's hands. Surely that will then lead to massive spreads, making it impossible to day trade, and making many people's hands even stickier. It's already difficult to accumulate at times now; it's surely going to be impossible when the price is going up and there's the prospect of an even-more lucrative exit on the horizon...

I can see dolphins and the odd yellowfin tuna swimming about! Can't even see the scurvy-ridden harbour of Interim Island in the distance now or the decimated inshore fishing grounds around it. Hope no shipmates were stupid enough to spend any of their doubloons in the taverns there. I mean, you could buy plenty of rum and fun with them there, sure, but you might not be sailing with us now, and where we're going we can afford far more luxurious treasures. Ahoy!

The one post army have arrived. The weekends on here are like the instalment of Pirates of the Caribbean where all the zombie skeleton pirates turn up.

The monsters from the deep keep coming in. We're gonna need a bigger medieval deep freeze: there's only so much sashimi we can manage out here on the sunny deck!

FWIW my guess is that there will be no Monday RNS: surely if the big boys are still accumulating right now, they will go right up to the bell on Monday when time runs out for the switch to the new index. Tuesday, on the other hand could be a different story...

"I'm aware, if we're in a FSP then aren't the company obliged to inform shareholders, by means of RNS, of Any formal offers made to the company?"

My understanding is that they waived that condition and so are not bound by the normal time limits in the PUSU guidelines. The NDAs mean that it's only the offer that the board recommends - if one is forthcoming - that they have to announce, with all others kept secret.

Looks like we're being held in a new range now: 31.5p - 32.5p. Institutional accumulation ongoing. Fish stocks depleted in shallower waters. Won't be long until they have to set sail for the monsters of the deep if they want to accumulate substantially more: my guess is that there are fewer and fewer shoals of fish to be caught as we move up in each spawning ground.

Is this really it, or are they just going on a northbound fishing expedition having rendered all the marine life extinct in the shallower waters near the harbour?

Well, it's nearly another 1% out of the free float, so you would expect 1.5p (at least) to be a new floor. I'm happy for us to drift a bit here for now though as I'm waiting for some other funds to be realised and want to accumulate a lot more.

Just looking at this morning's trades would add credence to the theory:

26-Nov-20 08:14:01 1.498 132,451 Buy* 1.45 1.50 1,984 O
26-Nov-20 08:13:30 1.4974 99,280 Buy* 1.45 1.50 1,487 O
26-Nov-20 08:13:01 1.49 166,553 Buy* 1.45 1.50 2,482 O
26-Nov-20 08:12:43 1.49 166,553 Buy* 1.40 1.50 2,482 O
26-Nov-20 08:12:24 1.45 171,147 Buy* 1.40 1.45 2,482 O
26-Nov-20 08:12:06 1.4245 174,211 Sell* 1.40 1.45 2,482 O
26-Nov-20 08:11:48 1.4245 174,211 Sell* 1.40 1.45 2,482 O
26-Nov-20 08:10:02 1.449 342,939 Buy* 1.35 1.45 4,969 O
26-Nov-20 08:09:47 1.42 349,943 Buy* 1.35 1.45 4,969 O
26-Nov-20 08:09:22 1.415 351,180 Buy* 1.35 1.45 4,969 O

There's approximately 2 million there, all in similar-sized chunks. Could plausibly all be the same person buying as part of a single order. The two tiddlers afterwards for about £600 are mine: every little helps!

I managed to buy a few hundred quids' worth this morning: it didn't take that long by placing a limit order with HL. Had to cancel the second transaction as the ask moved up but still got them at 1.5p and 1.54p which is still a little way below my average. I think bots' explanation could well make sense: it's not like today's price rise is a massive breakout, it could well be just someone taking a position of a few hundred thousand or so which, in terms of the free float, would be quite a substantial percentage.

Yep, the very fact that there are massive kipper trades after hours (every single day) weighing in at hundreds of thousands of pounds should make it obvious what is going on. The institutions are loading up for the endgame: the lack of price movement is obviously a mixture of MMs trying to help them load up and lack of volume caused by long and strong holders having no kitchen sinks left to throw in. Anyone selling now is going to be absolutely sick when the RNS lands and before they can even see the gangplank to get on board the galleon we're already off over the horizon and they're stuck ashore.

Yep, I see the Lamtree thread has been deleted. The subtle deramps are getting ever-more sinister: e.g. "Be nice to know before Christmas but head tells me Jan 2021". The arrival of the friendly, helpful approach to narrating why we should consider listening to the impatient devil on one shoulder telling us to go rainbow chasing rather than the patient angel on the other telling us to hold firm suggests clearly to me that the MMs are now scraping an empty barrel for shares to place in the sticky hands of institutional kipper purchasers at this 28-30 level. It's definitely more subtle than the overt negative deramping, but it's bot fly tactics all the same.

Anyone stupid enough to listen to this might as well chuck themselves overboard: when the RNS lands, they'll have no chance of getting back aboard, as the gang planks will be stowed away, the sails will be raised high and full of gale force wind, and the galleon will be steaming ahead towards treasure island. Before any shipmates who went ashore and took the inadvisable decision to let their golden doubloons out of their sight for a moment realise what's happened, we'll be well over the horizon beyond their sight line, fully stocked with no room for any other passengers.

It's really quite mad when you look at the range on, say, Google. It is literally being held between 28p and 30p tightly, bouncing up and down constantly between the two, as if someone had deliberately those exact round numbers into a system. It's like the opposite of how a free market is supposed to function.

I can’t help but think it’s time to pull the covers off the palladium cannon that has been in dry storage down in the ship’s stores since before suspension. Get it up on deck and locked in place. Run some diagnostics. Get the brasso out and give it a good polish. Make sure the fuses are all ready to go so that we’re ready to start firing as soon as the call is heard from high up in the crow’s nest. The explosions will be heard on the other side of the planet!

"Mind you I’ve seen plenty of people who are refusing to do anything whilst being furloughed and get away with it".

It's illegal to work while furloughed, otherwise every firm would completely abuse the scheme.

@DUFC - my guess, and it is very much a guess, would be the purchaser fronting up around £2bn now in order to take MT off EUA's hands, most of which would be recycled to shareholders in the form of a special dividend with rest being used to pay costs, keep the lights on and undertake more exploration. But, going forward, EUA would retain, say, a percentage interest in future profits. Even a small amount - 10% - could represent huge dividends on 2 million oz/yr, especially if PGM prices continue to rise. At current prices, that would be about 13p. But just imagine, say, 20% with palladium rising to $6000. And then the cycle repeated with VT. It's almost too big to believe or comprehend. This all might be totally wide of the mark, but it seems a plausible scenario that would be a win-win for everyone, and the complexity it implies might explain why things are taking so long.

"To be clear, I actually see this as a positive, I would be very happy with a chunky dividend now and to retain my investment to share in the spoils in the years to come as metal prices continue to increase, more licences are applied for and issued and we prove up more and more assets perhaps as part of some JV agreement."

Abso-ruddy-lutely... Few have discussed this here, due to the focus on a full sale price, but it would be interesting to know what people would speculate might be the value of a special dividend + regular dividends going forward. My base case would be something like 50p + 5-10p/year for 20 years - depending, as I said the other day, on the myriad unknowns such as what they actually find, what gets proven up, how much can be dug up and by when, the nature of other licences, the extent of the share in future profits retained by EUA etc. - but it could be much, much more than this. Rowka's £3.50 could, over time, come to look rather conservative.

We still seem to be bouncing around a bit in this same range, but it feels like the ship is desperately trying to catch some wind to steer north and break out of the holding pattern. It certainly seems like the rumblings of a storm are beginning due northwards. Before long, it'll be raining gold.

Ian - I've been meaning to throw my hat in the ring for a while and keep forgetting. Can you put me down for this Friday 13th (anniversary Sunday, so hopefully will have good news to share with the other half while we're imprisoned at home) and £1.48 straight sale. Cheers!