Member Info for Montmuzard

Ignore me, the 18% comment was wrong. Monday brain fog: 12% gain to offset the 10% loss, more for a profit.

"if i see something that i believe will offer more than 10% gain then I would go for it"

I can see the logic in this, but you'd need an 18% gain from the position you bought into in order to offset the 10% loss from EUA.

"I will just point out though that 10 percent is a lot of money to the long term shareholders here based on potential offers you are talking a lot of money so I doubt you will get sells from them."

Quite. My intention is to sell between a tenth and a fifth of my holding to average down some other positions, take a bit of Christmas cheer etc. and leave the rest invested until the endgame. But I would only do that if we're looking at, at most, a 2p or 3p loss on the final sale price (4% or so max). Otherwise it just isn't worth it. The only thing that could change this is if we have a cash plus shares deal and the latter is in a non-UK company that HL don't list. All my EUA shares are in ISAs and there's no way I'm going to risk them being dumped into a new trading account outside of the ISA wrapper (as per the conversation on here the other day). In that case, I'd sell up completely and take the 10 percent hit (if 90% was indeed what the share price rerated to).

"If the SP goes to, say, 90% of the offer price then yes, lots of people would sell. However, plenty more people/companies would be willing to buy in order to gain the essentially guaranteed 10%."

Surely it would go much closer than 90%? I'm thinking more like 96-98% of the offer price. Still some scope for profits for those institutions buying up millions of shares, and also worth PIs selling out to redeploy their cash. For any PI with a sizeable holding, I don't see 90% of the offer price being attractive: at £1.50 you're talking a 15p loss; at £2.20 (let's dream) you're talking a 22p loss (almost today's share price). For anyone with a few 100K of shares or more, that's tens of thousands of pounds.

I’ve wondered something similar too. It’s hard to price it up given we don’t know for sure what’s down there but my back of a fag packet calculations would put such an agreement at a 50p or so special dividend, followed by anything from 10p upwards (and into silly money) as a recurring annual dividend depending on what kind of percentage deal they strike, how much is ultimately proven up, and how much can be extracted. Add other licences and exploration on top, and EUA could generate many pounds per share over the next two decades.

One thing I've been pondering is what effect NN ultimately winning the race, if indeed they do, will have on the final deal price, and whether it might depress it to some degree. I remember reading a number of -- at times, rather conspiratorial -- posts on here in the past where people suggested that, if a powerful and well-connected Russian firm like NN is to win, they'll just be able to use their political influence to grind EUA, which is, after all, a British-registered firm, down.

I increasingly think that the exact opposite is actually the case: Putin and the Kremlin don't have a direct vested interest in supporting what most benefits NN in a corporate sense, especially if they know that their political preferences in terms of the asset staying in Russian hands (or at least having Russian actors exercise some kind of effective majority control) will be realised anyway.

What they do have a vested interest in is in ensuring large inflows of investment, especially in exploration activities, which lead to mines being built, resources being extracted and broader development gains in terms of jobs and exports. So, any kind of sweetheart deal for NN would achieve the exact opposite effect. It would demonstrate to outside investors that spending twenty-odd years jumping through labyrinthine legal hoops, drilling and carefully logging data to add value, just isn't worth it as it could all be expropriated.

By contrast, the opposite is also true: what better way to signal that Russia is open for business than sealing a gargantuan deal that makes waves internationally? Moreover, what better way to ensure that NN - or whoever - actually has an incentive to build a mine quickly, provide work for people and start digging PGMs out of the ground? Even if this sells for $10 billion, the returns to NN (presumably) would still be absolutely staggering, and the pressure on them to start recouping that money and generating profit likewise.

I have just over half a million and consider myself very sticky and very long term. Plus, the sp is still just under my average so I’m quite happy for it to drift for now as I intend to keep accumulating once I can free up cash from some other short-term positions.

"They are letting institutions load up at the expense of pi's"

I'm always a bit puzzled when people say this. Surely the PIs are the ones who are letting the institutions load up? If people stopped panicking and selling when there's a manufactured drop, the price would go up!

Who says it's market makers doing it? Loads of people now have these no-fee investing apps where you can just round up small amounts of money into your share account and use it to buy very small numbers of shares.

"EUA has made me more than my day job this year and I'm happy to risk that and my original stake for more profits from these levels."

That's exactly how I think about it. The downside risk of potentially losing the capital initially invested (or indeed the massive gains made so far) are still so utterly outweighed by the upside risk of genuinely life-changing amounts of money it's untrue. I'm prepared to expose myself to the former in order to avoid missing out on the latter. Every 3p gain on the EUA share price - especially once reinvested for another decade after this - is literally going to buy me an extra year of early retired life down the line, as well as bringing that ever-closer and making it ever-more comfortable. I'm not prepared to give that up for anything: I'd feel awful if I lost tens of thousands from this point; but I'd feel far more awful if I locked those in to then lose hundreds of thousands. Holding long and strong until the endgame.

Surely that’s the only way to invest in anything? But seriously, if you can’t hold your shares for more than five minutes and don’t have confidence in your research to navigate the inevitable ups and downs, perhaps you shouldn’t be investing in Aim stocks at all.

"Their are now people in this share holding many shares above what we would all consider a great/ cheap entry"

This is true. I've pondered once or twice mentioning EUA to friends when discussing investments, and decided they missed the boat for massive gains once we moved beyond 17p to the 30s, so kept it to myself as the risk-reward wasn't worth any potential risk to a friendship.

"Its why we are at 28-32p not because of the longer term holders at wonderful averages.2.4 billion shares, its not long term holders selling a few into the market".

Also true. I haven't - and will not - sell a sausage until the endgame.

"Personally the current share price is a concern and the future sp will be a further concern for me without a sale.
Its turned into a guess the fsp and date .... But it doesn't help investors losing 10-35% and a possible 3.5% tmr and so on
EUA is a buyers market.im not currently at a loss but feel its very close without a sale (its a long way off for most people not in at 1-5p )"

This is where I - and, I imagine, all long-term holders - will disagree. The current share price is not a concern at all unless you haven't done your research and just jumped on the bandwagon. You've lost nothing until you sell, and we've all been through fluctuations at the >1p level, up to 3/4p, again before suspension around 7p and now with the current shenanigans. Even if there's no sale and EUA move to mining themselves, I'll just gladly scoop up as many jelly leg shares as I can on the way down for the even-larger gains a few years down the line. Plus, long-term investors have much more to lose than recent investors from any crash: relative to our initial investment it's less, but some people are sitting on six and seven-figure gains at the moment that have taken balls of steel to keep sitting on. The reason why they continue to do so? Research, research, research.

"Fear of missing out on a RNS(even a sale process) is not a reason to invest or not to sell".

Yes it is. Trust me, as someone who had a fairly small amount - 4,800 shares - at an average of just under a quid in NCYT a few months ago. I sold up to chase rainbows with a nice, tidy 50% profit. The next day the FDA approval RNS landed. I've never felt so sick, apart from when looking at the share price now. And bear in mind, also, that NCYT has experienced its own dips - from touching £5, back down to under £3, and now pushing £10, that would have cleared out many more jelly legs (including probably myself if I'd held on a bit there). Why did I do it? Because NCYT was a bandwagon jump. No proper research.

"A very bored EUA investor".

You're not as bored as many here were in suspension (not to mention those who have been invested, literally, for decades). And that boredom is exactly what the MMs and their acolytes are looking to exploit. Your twitchiness is their cannon-fodder, and your 30% loss is their profit once you crystallise it through impatience.

“Previously I have stated”. Since you’ve only been a member for three weeks, it’s not really “previously”. More, “the other day”.

“As I said earlier I think a sale for 750m is max”

Laughable. For the very simple reason that the board has no incentive to accept such an offer, as they would just activate the Sinosteel contract and take it to production themselves. Try harder.

If it was gonna be 50p the deal would’ve been wrapped up months ago. Simple as.

MMs seem to be keeping us in a holding pattern, don't they? Earlier today it was around 30p with the odd dip south to clear out stops; then they ran it up quickly over 32p, and have since held it between 31.9p and 32.5p all afternoon. Could be that they're just harvesting cheap shares before the next leg up...

There is no way a hostile takeover is happening here: quite apart from the difficulty of accumulating a massive portion of the company from the available free float without anybody noticing, no company would risk buying out a junior minor when they haven't been privy to the data room. We're talking hundreds of millions to build the necessary stake. It's a huge risk, if you don't know for sure what's down there (and don't know how you'll be received by the local authorities).

Bought my first EUA shares since this time last year today. Have never had the balls to sell out at a peak to risk trading with. So piled a few quid in and took a few at 30.4 for a short-term trade that I’ll keep recycling thanks to all the generous jelly legs.

It’s clearly just box ticking to make sure everything is legally watertight. Anyone who sells deserves to be chucked overboard. Knowing EUA’s approach in the past, they’ll probably let that happen and then drop the big one at 10am. Let’s hope so, anyway! Time to see those loaded cannons firing!

Yeah, this can't just be FOMO: must be leaky, surely?