Member Info for Montmuzard

Calling all Jelly Legs: stand firm! If you're silly enough to throw yourself overboard now, in these deep waters, expect to be eaten by the sharks. If you want to take your mind off it, there's a palladium cannon that needs extra polishing down in the stores so that it's gleaming when we bring it up on deck in due course.

They're throwing everything at this: you could catch whales in the nets the MMs have cast down into the deep today. Except they won't find anything. We've seen it all before. Holding long, long, long and strong!

Only a matter of time until the well is dry, FOMO kicks in and this goes through the roof.

The way that bounced off 40.3ish suggests that the seas have been fully plundered here already. Off to look for the kraken in much deeper waters.

We've hit 41p nine times today according to the Google chart. Is this the moment that we finally cross that boundary?

@mac - Yep, and the higher we go, and the more time runs out, that process only intensifies in a virtuous (for us) circle.

If the FT is right, I doubt much of that 1,500 million is openly available right now as much will be in sticky hands. I bet the regular posters on this board (plus Phil T) account for a few hundred million. Then add the institutional buying we've seen in recent weeks: that must easily account for for another many hundreds of millions. I'll be there's barely a couple of hundred million available (less than 10% of the total shares in issue) all the way up to 75p and beyond now. It's only a matter of time before we sail north.

I can't see us being range bound for that much longer. Two fast-moving forces which are on a collision crash course are coming towards us and getting closer and closer: (1) from the past, time and the available free float, which are both depleting rapidly; (2) from the future, the prospect of a massive payday, which appears larger and larger as it looms into view.

We don't yet know when they will collide, but they will, and we'll be right in the middle of them in the present. This coming collision is a self-reinforcing virtuous circle: it encourages stickier hands, which only speeds up the meeting of the past and the future in the present. So, we will inevitably spend increasingly less time in each range because present time inevitably becomes shorter and shorter.

This renders it exponential: we keep saying "we're a day closer" but we're not really, as "a day" varies hugely in value and significance depending on where we're at in the process. A year ago, each day was a tiny chunk of time in the context of a 20-year process. Barely 0.0001%. Looked at from then, each day had little bearing on the present. Today was just another small dot in the distance.

But if we look at today backwards from the endpoint of the process - rather than from our current vantage point, or a past which deems it small and insignificant - every single day represents a gigantic chunk (5%, 10%, 20% or more of the remaining time left. By definition, one of these days, soon, we will literally live through half of the remaining process.

Time is running out. The free float is squeezed. The endgame is near. The forces are close to colliding. The only way is up.

@Welsh - You've got it the wrong way round. it's Wolster who is right here. If there's no Brexit deal and Sterling plummets (which it will) then moving from £1 = $1.30 to $1.35 is not the pound weakening, that would be the pound strengthening (as you'd be buying more dollars for your pound). A Sterling crash would be more like a drop to, say, $1.15, in which case you could buy more pounds for fewer dollars.

Let's say EUA sells for $1.50/share:

At $1.35 you would get £1.11.
At $1.30 (now) it would be £1.15.
At $1.15 (much weaker) it would be £1.30.

So, Boris Johnson's utter incompetence could quite plausibly redound to the benefit of EUA shareholders.

Incidentally, I used to live in a country where I was paid in USD so have seen this play out before. I had a field day in 2016 sending money home once the pound collapsed against the dollar after the referendum from $1.50ish to $1.25ish as that was around the time I moved back and was sending money home. It cost me fewer dollars to buy more pounds.

I'm fairly confident in the Russian authorities: once the Ministry of Defence approved the flanks it was only a matter of time until SevZapNedra did. Ditto here with DFS. I think in Britain we too-often assume Russia is a basket case (ironic, really, when you look at the behaviour of our ministers dishing out contracts to their mates in the pub) when it's a serious country with serious governing institutions. They might work to their own fuzzy logic that outsiders don't grasp, but that doesn't mean there aren't rules, procedures, processes and laws.

Mikey - my response was just from memory when others have discussed it on here. But, from what you posted from the gov.uk site it sounds like HL etc. could, in theory, sell the shares and then deposit the cash back in your ISA. There must be some workaround. I suppose the alternative is, if it is a cash/special div + NN shares deal, to just sell the shares when it rerates but before the sale goes through and suck up the 2-3% loss of the overall value.

Sorry, cash!

@Mikey - I believe the answer was (with HL at least) that they sell them on the open market and stick the case in your trading account if you have one or they set one up for you. It's the one outcome I'm slightly worried by as all my EUA shares are currently snugly tucked into ISAs.

They do, they just use an app :-)

Isn't it just people with Freetrade and similar apps: when you go shopping they allow you to round your purchase up to a couple of quid in your trading account.

"I work for the NHS in Finance, I can tell you categorically there's loads and loads of money to go round, it's got nothing to do with migrants. The money is wasted paying ridiculous amounts to 'management consultants', 'projects' and other silly reimbursements which if the standard taxpayer saw would be appaled."

I work in academia. It's much the same. Everything that is wrong with contemporary Britain can be traced to the rise of the managerialist elites (who know nothing about actual management) and the way they have successively decimated the professional autonomy of the people at the coalface while using their privileged position to extract as much capital for themselves as possible. Everything we see right now with Covid is that: elites effectively looting the state and using their mouthpieces in the tabloids to divert attention to those at the bottom of the pile while they stuff their trousers: "look, migrants in boats!"

"And even that could easily be stopped, because we have the RN who are just as capable of turning the machine guns on such invaders, but the political will is not there to do it. Countries get the immigration policies they deserve, because they elect the political idiots who deliver those policies!"

Sorry, to contribute to this off-topic conversation, but:

1. If the Royal Navy turned their guns on vulnerable, desperate civilians crossing the sea, they would be indicted in the Hague for a crime against humanity. Which is a fairly good reason why they don't do it.

2. The people crossing are not immigrants subject to normal immigration policy. They are - at least until demonstrated otherwise - refugees, and are therefore protected by the UN Convention on Refugees (1951) which was established after the war because of the mass movements of populations caused by it (like Syria today). Britain, like most other states, is a signatory and has a duty to protect refugees under international law.

At least if you're gonna pollute a board about investments with a glib Nigel Faragesque argument, base it on some facts and knowledge.

@Steve - 75p is definitely what I have as my bare minimum, but the nagging question I have is, why would the board accept that? That would only bring us up to somewhere around the Sibanye-Stillwater deal (higher costs of extraction, PGM prices barely a quarter of what they are now or are likely to be going forward, no bidding war, no last non-consolidated palladium play) and is only a tiny percentage of the value that could be realised by going it alone...

So they can only be identified by access to their dental records!

My hope today is that, after the WK DFS, the BOD decide to have a bit of fun. Let's have them leeching out RNS's all day long. A nice resource upgrade for MT at 10.00. Maybe something little about VT etc. around 2.00. Then release the monster at 4.00.