Member Info for Montmuzard

Does anyone have any idea how much the FSP is costing UBS and CITIC?

They've been engaged since July. So, that's, what, six months minus Christmas etc. (approximately 130 days). If we assume a core team of five people working on it on average, that's 650 person-days. It's hard to know the day rates - be interested to know if anyone here does - but I would guess an average of £5,000/day for a top M&A team (assuming a range of somewhere between £2,000 for the junior right up to many thousands for the boss).

So, let's say UBS are budgeting £25,000/day for the team working on the EUA bid and CITIC the same. This is a pretty wild guess, so could be less, could be more; either way, it's not small beans. Those teams have already burned through 650 person-days (which is actually 1300 days because of the opportunity cost of not having those people work on other projects and generating fee income). So, at £25,000 for the team x 130 days that is over £3 million already, plus another £3 million in other projects not worked on. The same for CITIC. A drop in the ocean - if there is a deal - but quite a dent in even the best-resourced team budgets if they have nothing to show for 7+ months' work at the end of the year.

Be interested to know if anyone works in M&A and can shed further light on this question. My sense is that the fact that UBS and CITIC are still here while these costs rack up should fill PIs with confidence.

"When the bullies are on their knees, and I hope this happens, even if I take a hit, then all will be good."

Nobody is bullying you. They're challenging your nonsense. It's not the same. Bullies attack people out of the blue for no reason to exert power. Most people on here would rather you just shut up, and, if you won't, they'll argue with you.

"Taking profit off the table at 28p does not seen like a bad move this morning, it should never have resulted in the tidal wave of abuse"

Nobody is "abusing" you, and certainly not for taking profit. What they are doing is arguing with you because your reasons for suddenly turning from being ramper-in-chief to deramper-in-chief are suspicious and disingenuous.

"...only after that did I decide to take my own action".

Didn't your ill-advised stop loss - on a share you told everyone would be worth £3.50! - take that action for you, and well below 28p too?

"Remember those highly researched have more ammunition than those that are not".

Which is why nobody is listening to your deramps.

"I think everyone should dismiss the old trusted sources routine and stick to what is officially released".

Except for you. You'll speculate on the motives of Alexei rather than accepting what was in the RNS about him needing the cash.

"I believe there are some offers knocking about but not brilliant, so how do the company play it?"

If the offers were not brilliant, they would have known that soon after engaging UBS/CITIC, and wouldn't have entered the FSP. Even in the unlikely event they discovered this later, the FSP still wouldn't have got this far. Remember Dmitri's interview: "they won't bring us small deals".

"If faced with that dilemma I know what I would do"

Soil yourself?

"...if a bid is released at 65p or thereabouts, everyone is punching the air in delight".

Except you. Because you soiled yourself. Besides, it won't be 65p. There's no point EUA entering an FSP with massive European and Chinese investment banks - who'll be looking for sizeable success fees - and selling for around £1.7bn. It makes no sense when they could earn that much within a couple of years (or less) by taking it to mine themselves. The ACF report with its 60p target was a starting point: the place at which negotiations would be opened. They wouldn't have got this far if it was that low. Especially not with (at least) three separate bids.

"This would also answer everything that has gone on previously."

No it wouldn't. It's quite plausible that Alexei simply needed the cash, MMs took advantage to help IIs accumulate from fearful PIs. In fact, that is by far the most logical explanation.

"Something big is in the offing but for the fsp to be allowed to run this long I guess it must be complex and real"

This is crucial. There is no way DLA Piper would have been brought on board if it weren't. Ditto UBS. They all would have walked away months ago if there was nothing here. Their staff costs - for anything more than just a few days - are totally insupportable without the serious prospect of a deal on the table to pay for them.

I don't know any LTH's who have been "selfish" or "ramping". There are plenty who have said - consistently - that they have faith in the board to deliver and are holding strong to the end. If you see that as ramping, and use it as a reason to buy in at a given price in lieu of doing your own research regarding an appropriate buy-in price, that's not really any LTH's fault. The same is true if you choose to sell out now when the completion of a massive FSP is quite possibly just round the corner.

It was the same thing this morning. I did a small trade on the end of last week's drop from 26p and tried to buy them back this morning at 22p. No chance. Had to pay exactly that: 23.4p.

"But my bigger worry would be state intervention in this whole saga"

I wouldn't worry about that. Exploration is an expensive and time-consuming business, and Russia needs (a) investments in exploration and (b) investments in getting metals out of the ground. There is no incentive whatsoever for the government to do any favours for favoured companies - once, of course, they're happy with the broad structure of any deal in terms of what it means geopolitically - as it would just discourage future Eurasias from doing (a) and then inevitably undermining (b).

In fact, I would say the opposite is true: the Russian state has a vested interest in seeing its (serious) legal and administrative processes carried out to the letter, and what better way to show that the country is open for business than little old EUA hitting the jackpot? Plus, I reckon they have a serious incentive to ensure that this goes for top dollar: assuming NN is the buyer, the more they pay for it, the more quickly they will need to start producing, generating jobs and tax revenue etc.

"Seven months seems an awful long time for a sale of such in demand resources."

No it doesn't, and quite the contrary. The very fact they are so in demand is why the process is taking so long.

Just ticked up. Looks like 1.3p is the floor. Could be a fun afternoon.

Yep, MMs have happily gathered up plenty of stock over the past hour or so for the next leg up.

Just taking a breather: some taking a bit of profit and MMs taking advantage with a little shake before next leg up.

Had these in bottom draw for a long time so nice to see some movement this morning.

I think someone has forgotten to pull the anchor up. Seem to be dragging on the reef a bit. I know we've all got a two-day hangover, but sort it out!

Hi Ian, my old prediction has long since expired, so can you put me down for next Thursday 4th Feb please? Still hoping for £1.48.

I would imagine that, given they are well acquainted, they would have his phone number and, you know, called it.

@Gecko: I was literally just reading the RNS again and thought exactly the same.

@Jetcom - This is a really important, under-appreciated, point. It's not like any investment fund just drops £8m on some stock without doing their DD. Alexei didn't just call up on Tuesday and say: "hey guys, got some nice freshly baked buns on the back of a lorry, you want them?" It will have been negotiated and planned weeks ago. Never has the notion that there is always a buyer on the end of every sell been more significant or obvious.

Also, one thing I've been pondering is whether, if the BOD had known this was coming, they would/should/could have released an RNS to mitigate it. I'm not sure they would or should have done. If they had, it could well have just looked dodgy and caused even more panic. This way, their hands are not dirty, they don't like like they've been colluding with an insider, they can plead ignorance (whether or not they are is immaterial really, as it's plausible they had no idea and plausible deniability is all that matters) and the RNS issued this morning has brought us back to normal(ish) with probably less damage than might have otherwise occurred.

Well done Crabby, looks like you did buy at the bottom actually. Ticking up towards 25p already now!

"...any buyer would use this as an example of what could happen in a No Sale outcome (Not Likely!)"

@Everest: Surely the Board would just respond with their own graph showing what would happen in terms of revenue to EUA over the next twenty years in the event of a No Sale outcome. I imagine that would very quickly concentrate the minds of the buyers!

I've bought some more at same point as you Crabby with exactly the same instincts. Core holding of just under half a million remaining untouched until the bitter (or, rather, very very sweet) end, not matter how much the one-post muppets try, and fail, to shake the faith.

"Will need massive news soon to stop this becoming a share in folklore, for all the wrong reasons".

God job the massive news is due then, isn't it?