RE: 130710 Feb 2021 18:06
This is nonsense. The Russian state has a clear incentive not to just give this away to anyone for peanuts. These lazy, facile analyses make me laugh: "I lived in Russia [course you did] and it's so corrupt so NN will just do whatever they like". So utterly simplistic, lacking in logic, and designed to pander to the fears of those whose shares you're trying to relieve on the cheap.
For a start, if the government handed this to NN on a silver platter, it would totally decimate small-cap explorations, with investment fleeing the country, the very thing Russia needs to keep the cadastre expanding. Not to mention the resentments it would cause elsewhere in the business sector, and other special favours that other powerful firms would start demanding. Exploration is expensive work and the majors don't want to do it. Why on earth would NN want to destroy the system that has potentially provided them with this amazing asset which, even for $10bn, could see them generating a gain many times that over 20 years? It's literally their bread and butter. And don't forget, the $10bn isn't a "cost" to them: they simply replace the cash (and tax liability) with an appreciating asset on their balance sheet (which will only appreciate further if PGM prices continue to rise as expected). Win-win.
Second, the government would miss an opportunity to declare the country open for business internationally: i.e. "look at all the deserved riches EUA are making, you can too if you work hard and do things by the book. Please bring your money here".
Third, the main stake the state has in this transaction is not pandering to NN, but getting Monchetundra up and running and jobs being generated. If you gave this away for peanuts, NN would have no incentive to get it producing quickly. But if you ensure that they pay top dollar for it, they have every incentive to invest the necessary capex and make a lot of hay while the sun is shining. Again, from the state's perspective, win-win.
Fourth, in my experience, it's only people who genuinely don't know Russia who present it glibly as some kind of kleptocratic basket-case. It's a serious country, with serious laws, and serious processes. After all, why would they bother making EUA (and others) jump through the million hoops they've jumped through for the past 20 years if none of it mattered?
Finally, who knows what the Kremlin's objectives are anyway? Russian politics is hugely complex with competing power centres everywhere. Yes, Putin exercises a lot of power, but it isn't an absolutist monarchy. He has to balance competing tensions. Who says a large part of the state's interest isn't actually about making sure its processes are respected in this case? Who says it doesn't want to present an image of order to the outside mining world? Who says it doesn't see some benefit in clipping NN's wings a little? Who says it doesn't want new powerful young business tycoons to emerge that favour Putinism?