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Good point, I hadn't thought of that. Well, if it drops at 4pm and destroys the shorters and ten percenters, I won't complain.

Absolutely right Mac, not least since it's pretty safe to assume that those non-binding bids have been on the table for a lot longer (potentially months longer) than six weeks.

Agreed. I've often wondered whether it might even come on a Friday evening: give the market an entire weekend to digest it.

Impossible to predict. EUA tend to drop RNS's at all manner of times, often on a Thursday, and often intraday. However, given the scale of what might be coming, it's hard to see that happening. Much more likely to be at 7am or after hours. My bet would be after-hours: the deal will be signed off late in the day Russian time and then RNS'd at 4.30pm here to give the market an entire evening to digest it.

Why on earth would we want to do that? What if only one or two bidders have been privy to the WK DFS as a specific reward for making it through to the final round? What if the one in pole position has, say, offered substantially more money than the one in second place on the specific proviso that the DFS is kept in-house? What if the BOD released it due to pressure from outside and it collapsed the whole process?

@Ibiza - Quite, and one thing that's worth reiterating endlessly is that the cash purchase price to the buyer is replaced on the balance sheet with an enormous asset which is only likely to keep appreciating. So, when we talk of a "cost" of X-billion dollars, this is misleading, because it would only be a cost if there was nothing of value to show for it. Yet the thing you do have to show for it is actually worth many multiples of what you paid. So, NN (or whoever the buyer is) will be thinking solely in terms of the ratio between investment required to secure the asset and likely future revenues. The more of the latter they think that they can generate, the more of the former they're prepared to pay. The headline price itself matters far less than what they believe they can turn it into over the long term. Of course, they will want to be prudent, but they also won't mind spending big if the opportunity cost is losing out on an asset that could ultimately give them a dominant position on world PGM markets and generate tens (and, depending on what can be proven up further, even hundreds?) of billions in revenue going forward. For the sake of $5, $10 or whatever billion, the most inefficient thing a major like NN can do is sit on piles of cash that are just burning a hole and seeing them fail to secure future revenue streams, especially in scalable projects for precious metals which are in high demand and (very) short supply. In fact, this is one of our major bargaining chips: we keep talking about the different advantages EUA has at the table, but just think about it from the perspective of the bidders. For them, it's a totally zero-sum game: you either secure this asset, or you don't. If you don't, you may retain a few billion dollars in cash, but you will have lost out to a major competitor who will enjoy a degree of market dominance (and price-setting power) in your sector, something that is totally unthinkable from a corporate perspective.

I'd also obviously be very happy with £1 too, but I just have this nagging feeling that, if we were looking at that (something like $4bn or so for a full company sale) then this would have been wrapped up long before now, so the BOD and UBS must be trying to squeeze every last penny out of it.

It wasn't my claim: someone mentioned it this morning on this board (or maybe on "the other" one, not sure) and I've heard it mentioned once or twice recently. No idea whether it's true or not though.

@Hoochy - just a random guess really! My understanding is that we have 3.03bn shares including warrants and options. So, using Tricky's info about UBS M&A deals, I divided $6bn (the midpoint) by that amount, took 10% off, converted it to GBP (the recent strengthening of the pound works against us a bit unfortunately) and that came to £1.27.

My prediction in Ian's game is £1.48. My bullish sentiment comes from: last non-consolidated palladium play; rising metals prices; bidding war and multiple bids; EUA having Sinosteel option in back pocket; the sheer length of time it's taking (which can only be a good thing).

But equally, if it's true that the BOD did reject an 80p bid in the autumn, I also can't help but think that we need to have a little bit of a reality check. So it seems to me that £1.20ish would probably be a happy medium everyone can live it. Although WTFDIK? I've said previously I wouldn't be surprised by anything between about a quid and three quid.

One thing I do think we need to remember, though, is that 1p equals about $30m, every 10p is $300m, so not small beans by any measure, and every 30p is another Wembley stadium. Serious money, meaning every single penny will surely be the subject of hard bargaining

My suspicion is that we are aiming at exactly that ballpark of $5-$7bn. Take the midpoint: with just over 3bn shares and £4.3bn in Sterling, deduct 10% for costs, and you're looking at something along the lines of £1.27/share.

Which is precisely my point. In the long run, of course, markets broadly reflect demand/supply patterns over time. But, as Keynes said: in the long run, we're all dead.

In the short run, the idea that the SP at a given moment reflects a neat equilibrium is nonsense. In fact, it's impossible that it does: in neoclassical economic theory, you only get a genuinely free market with perfect information, freedom of entry and exit, buyers and sellers exercising similar power. None of those conditions are here: PIs have little information, whereas MMs and IIs have lots, including access to the City rumour mill; freedom of entry and exit is constrained by the size of different positions; and market participants vary dramatically in their ability to influence market behaviour due to the enormous variations in their access to capital, and by, say, parking massive buy and sell orders at different price points to influence sentiment by dampening rises or exacerbating falls.

So, my original point stands: even if you believe that the current SP reflects a pattern of selling and simply reflects the market equilibrium at a given moment, it is still plausible to contend that the original driver of that process - which underpinned the draining away of positive sentiment - is, in every instance, MMs exploiting the situation by nudging the price downwards to relieve PIs of stock. When they achieve it, that only reinforces the negative sentiment, allowing the MMs (and IIs) to load up further.

Why unbelievable? It’s quite reasonable to propose that the directional relationship between the variables is the other way round.

I’m not sure it’s the sells (cause) driving the share price decline (effect). I think it’s the other way round: the MMs know that, by dropping the price, they can encourage more sells from nervous PIs which are mopped up by IIs. It’s not like there’s been a sudden increase in selling over the past few weeks. Volume has been relatively low all along. If PIs didn’t sell, the price wouldn’t be so low. And even if someone is unloading, it still means someone else is buying. As Tilly has said, the day the RNS drops those monster fish will suddenly appear on deck.

Another cheeky little top up: at these prices you’d be mad not to.

One tenth of that (for argument’s sake) assuming we retain 10% of revenues going forward is still a 5.5p dividend. Factor in any expansion of licences and rising metals prices and I would gladly take that for the next two decades. Add on a special dividend of 50p+ now and I’d say that would be a very, very good outcome.

I can’t help but wonder if the distinct lack of deramping trolls and green coffins floating about here this weekend means news is close. Perhaps they’ve had their pound of flesh and their paymasters are now waiting for a strong reversal.

Great opportunity to buy, though, and when it comes, the reversal will be fierce. We've seen it on every single drop since the rise up from 1p and it'll happen again. Feels distinctly like the calm before the storm to me.

@belstaff - £2.22 is about what Dmitri needs to join the billionaire's club, so that would do just fine!

I don’t think it’s far away. Some big buys going through at this level.

I had decided to stop buying more and averaging up, but thought what the hell. The 4822 coming through shortly is mine. RIP Gary.