Member Info for Montmuzard

Don’t seem to be any bot flies combing the rigging. Can we assume they were literally here yesterday to get those two big orders filled?

@Mac - It's even more than 7 I think. My botfly list for today comprises:

Markschofield
Sharebel
Simeon1
AimforRenewable
Amanensia
pelicanwest2
Timber
laurenlouise
BillyBigBalls
JackoDLad
Beholder

@Nukuj - No, it seems we're not, and that's the problem. I've only discovered the filter button recently, but it makes a huge difference. Once you send them all off for a nice stint in the massive green penal colony in the sky, you scroll down the posts and all you see - in general - are sensible and informative ones.

@Greg - Yes, been in EUZ a lot longer than I've been in EUA. Sold some at a big loss to average up here. Hoping it won't pop there until this is done. It's a superb project.

"I'd be thinking it's more likely those who bought in at below 5p who will be dumping"

But that doesn't make sense to me either. I bought in below 1p (although have averaged up since). We've all had various opportunities to offload over the past couple of years at much higher levels than 30p. We had a period where we were in the high-30s for ages. I just don't get why anyone would sell at this level, at this point in time, right now.

The thing that mystifies me is: who is selling at 29.9p? Seriously. If you bought in last week, you could have made 34p this morning. But if you bought in today, you're making a loss. It makes no sense. For everyone else, the endgame is in sight. Why bother offloading into the sea so that the whales can gobble them up and dump them out their back ends as massive kippers?

@Gecko/Robert - For me, the whole point of hanging on here is to build up a big enough pot so that a nice 10% each year on average from funds will generate enough to build up a really nice retirement pile over the next decade or so. I'll still keep a small chunk of my portfolio for speculative plays on Aim: i.e. stocks I've done my research in, where I've tried to get in early, and am prepared to just leave them for years on end.

Well, yeah, if they knew they had already won the race. Or were doing it *with* their competitors as part of a massive consortium.

@Crabby - Quite. Which is why I'm not remotely worried. If people want to chuck themselves overboard for a swim, they might suddenly find the galleon has sailed off into the sunset and the sharks have already eaten their legs. I intend to remain on deck doing my bit to polish the palladium cannon while calmly drinking a rum punch.

"either market makers are temporarily holding it back for their chums to load, or they have absolutely no clue on how to value mining projects"

The fact that the SP has been held at 30p all day long and we have 6m+ missing in action suggests the former. Prepare for it to rain bluefin tunas on deck after hours tonight.

@Ramp - The only thing I would add to this is that the Russian state wins massively here: by pushing NN to pay top dollar, they have every incentive to not sit on the assets and get production up, generating jobs and tax revenues.

"My reason for selling most of my holding (and keeping 250K) was that I now have enough in cash to comfortably retire - I didn't before. I don't want to risk that cash"

And I have the opposite problem to you: I intend to retain all of my half-million because the biggest risk to me is not the prospect of losing the gains I've made so far - which I could earn/make back if I had to over time - but rather missing out on a potential upside risk that means I can, if I hold on, potentially retire 10 or 15 years early.

The money I've made so far is huge to me, and I could bank it. But I'm quite comfortable in risking it for the prospect of potentially generating truly life-changing amounts.

Plus, I'm following the smart money: somebody is buying the kippers that keep landing on deck at these prices, which tells me there is only upside. In fact, I have time to wait: even if the FSP collapsed, and we move to mine everything ourselves, I would be quite happy to hold on for another decade until an SP of £7+ is realised.

Every investor has to make the same calculation, and for all of us that calculation is different: how do you balance (a) the time you have left with (b) your capital and (c) your risk appetite to create (d) the best outcome in terms of your financial freedom? I know the answer to that for me, and it involves staying here until the very end.

I suggested earlier that 31p was pretty much the bottom. It looks to me as if we've basically been rooted at 30-31p for over two hours now. Hmmmm, why on earth would there be barely any price movement for two hours? Kippers, that's why.

Sure, I get that. But the fact that both CITIC and VTB are still there at this stage - after, what, two years of no-win, no-fee, dating from when first approaches were made - speaks volumes about what is going on behind the scenes.

The other thing I can't stop thinking - in terms of who is buying - is why would both CITIC and VTB Capital be involved alongside UBS, and have signed success fee-based letters, and still be there, if there wasn't going to be the need to bring together financing for a number of companies from China, Russia and possibly elsewhere?

"Rosgeo must know the outcome of the Sale process and know that EUA will have the cash to finance the JV. That to me is the most important point of the RNS."

True, but I don't think they'll bother doing that. My suspicion is that, from the Russian state's perspective, this was about securing a long-term interest in the region while rewarding EUA for a quarter-century of impeccable exploration, thereby encouraging other juniors to invest in the country. From the buyers' (plural) perspective - a multinational consortium - this was about ensuring that they have full control of the entire region and cannot be pushed out at will. In fact, thinking about it, it could well be that part of the reason Rosgeo is there is specifically because the Chinese will part of a consortium including Anglo alongside NN. From EUA's perspective, the JV provides options if everything goes belly up with the FSP, while also increasing its bargaining power in the FSP. My prediction: we're still looking at a full company sale, but it's going to be absolutely massive, in the order of £10bn+ and comprising a large multinational, multi-company consortium with substantial Russian state involvement.

"It does surprise me why anyone who bought at 0.2p, who has already 150-bagged, are risking ALLtheir gains on potentially another 2-10 bag?"

Because the 2-10 bag is a surer thing than just about anything else in the markets right now. Even if it doesn't happen, the metal is still there to be mined, which will generate more than a 10-bag. And this final stretch is where people turn tens of thousands into hundreds of thousands and millions.

The more interesting question is: if you were already sitting on life-changing amounts - as many are - and trusted your research, why would you risk diluting your potentially massive profits by selling out early?

Looks to me like 31p is the floor. MMs and IIs greedily filling their nets with kippers here. We should be ticking up again in short order. Even if not, we've broken well free of the sub-29p Alexei-Veles range, and have a new base to build from. All good. FOMO is only going to increase as minds become concentrated on the endgame, which could be just minutes, hours or days away.

Stop screaming! When you’re in a green box, nobody can hear you! Seven minutes until the crematorium cranks up the oven and it gets very hot in there!

I can’t help but think the BOD released the RNS on Friday (rather than 7am today) deliberately to burn them at the very highest temperature possible.