Member Info for Montmuzard

Sounds like you're a deramper now Roger.

"In short, I think DS has asked for too much and the main players that made non-binding offers have walked away one by one leaving us with nothing on the table".
If so, then surely it means DS thinks we can make a lot more money by going it alone. Although what's your evidence for this? Do you have any, beyond speculation?

"It it was the intention of the BOD all along to sell then why now at this late stage of the game invite a partner from out of the blue?"
Lots of explanations, one of which could well be that the buyer(s) demanded first-mover access to the entire region, which the Russian state was only too happy to provide once they were satisfied that they would develop and mine the whole lot (or that EUA would aim for a partial sale that has the same effect in terms of jobs and production).

Anyway, I see no evidence for the downbeat assumptions here. Your first comment - that this is games because something good is coming - is far more plausible. I also see no evidence for a 50p/70p sale. That would have been wrapped up months ago and there is just no way that the DS would accept that much given everything that is now on the table.

@Monkey - quite. It's all games and shenanigans.

Also, who actually has, say, a million shares that they can sell in two clean 500K chunks for exactly £120K each? And who might benefit from the consequent downward pressure on the SP that allows them to buy them back later on for less? Not any PI, that's for sure.

In the big scheme of things, a couple of 500K sells pales against the massive after-hours buys we've seen going on for months.

I thought I'd filtered the Mad Stork, but this is really, really mad:

"They will be looking to do a placing before being forced to fess up about the FSP".
Nonsense. No way DLA Piper or UBS would be risking the non-disclosure of market sensitive information. If the FSP has collapsed, the takeover panel will know. Nobody will be risking prison. Unless of course you seriously think the most prominent M&A legal firm routinely sends its lawyers out to get involved in shady deals that might see them struck off and subjected to criminal proceedings.

"Dreams of a mega sale is the only thing supporting the current bonkers valuation"
Apart from the fact that, if there is no sale, the prospects of going alone to mine the in-ground assets will support a share price of around £2 within the next two years and up to £6 or more by the end of the decade (according to GMF78's calculations). Good one. You can't unfind a mine, Storky.

"...and the higher the valuation at the time of the placing, the more cash they can raise."
Even if you're right, which you're not, this is fine by me. Raise away. If it means we bring more of the £100bn+ resources into play more quickly, then all to the good. But ask yourself this: why would the directors want to dramatically dilute their own holdings which constitute around a fifth of the entire company, unless of course any dilution saw massive increases in the long-term value of those holdings?

"Will the Takeover Panel allow it is the question? I'm definitely leaning towards 'yes' given how willing they have been to enable this farce of a record-breaking bid-free 'sales process' thus far. We shall see though."
Do you have any evidence of the Takeover Panel ever indulging a sham takeover process? No, thought not. Quite apart from the fact that this is one of the biggest and most high-profile FSPs that has ever occurred - with the FSP process itself still being a relatively new way of doing things - it's inconceivable that the panel are not absolutely all over this and would have stopped it a long, long time ago if anything untoward were happening.

I tell you what we do have evidence of though: your mates getting a good jubbing for inanities like this!

"YOU CANT UNFIND A MINE !"

Love this. You especially unfind one that has multiple pits containing by far the most desirable (and last of its kind) basket of metals with the lowest extraction costs on the planet.

Feels very much like the 2p/4p days, which was not long after I bought in (and stupidly derisked around that area too). Playing it the other way now: dug around for some doubloons and stuck another grand in. Rude not to at these prices.

Oh look, back up towards 25p already. There's a shocker. Criminal.

Because someone was stupid enough to set a stop loss at 24p, probably. MM fishing trip, as per usual. Be interesting to see shortly how many shares they've shaken out at that price. No way we won't finish at 26p today, nudged up by a UT at the end of the day. Rinse, repeat.

"I think the market is becoming a bit sceptical of a full sale the longer the process takes...."

I think jelly legs are worrying that this is the case, but the market is being held down by institutional manipulation and low volume, which exist in a feedback loop, keeping volume low and prices down. The smart money in the market is loading up and holding long for when the SP goes vertical, which it will in due course. If the FSP was in danger, it would have collapsed by now and we'd all know. The longer it goes on, the bigger the deal. UBS and the rest wouldn't have been here for over a year (including informal negotiations) if there wasn't a deal to be struck. They would have bailed out a long, long time ago.

They're only losses if you sell. A "loss" on paper means nothing if you don't.

I think our BOD have a keen sense of humour: I'd like to think if they do drop a big one they do so at 18.29.

Oh, and whaddya know, finish around 27p. The same price we've actually been held at for weeks now despite the pretend drops. At some point this has to end.

Yep, £1 is absolute minimum now. I thought it would be more than that a year ago on the basis of what we knew then once MT flanks were approved. Impossible to see how full control over a PGM district to “rival Bushveld” in an era of dramatically rising prices (how long until palladium is $5000 or $10,000?) that is the last of its kind goes for anything less than $10bn full sale.

My Vox app just went off bang on 4.30pm and I hurriedly grabbed my phone thinking THIS COULD BE IT!

But it was another stock... One day, though, it will be us.

"screaming Banshee attachment"

ROFL!

Agreed. I'd love it if they dropped a Thursday RNS at 4pm for a nice change!

"I believe the market is now valuing Eurasia at a blended fair value taking account of 'going alone with Rosgeo' and a 'no sale' with a 'long term Japanese buyer'. As in, if the FSP was cancelled tomorrow, the sp would likely consolidate to current levels... c.25p-28p range."

I agree with this, and think it's been insufficiently remarked on. One big worry lots of people have had in recent months is: what happens in the event that the FSP fails? Do we see another crash back down towards 7p? The assumption was always that, in the short term, that would be the case. But now, any RNS stating the end of the FSP with no sale would surely be accompanied by a detailed plan for not just bringing MT to production, but also doing the same with the Rosgeo JV. The future dividends beyond the middle of this decade are utterly, utterly mind-boggling.

So, I think you're right: events of the past few weeks - which have arguably been as much about demonstrating Russian state support and insulating the firm against any negative outcome in the FSP - unquestionably mean the SP will solidify above 20p, and would quickly go up beyond that as we moved towards production.

The other thing to remember is that, if the FSP fails, it's because the deals on the table - after 18 months of formal and informal negotiations and USB/DLA Piper at the table (!) - are not up to par. That is, they do not value $100bn+ resources highly enough, in market where the value of those resources are increasingly daily. Any short-term shock to the share price would be short-lived as the realisation of long-term shareholder value that vastly outweighs what can be realised in the FSP would sink in dramatically.

"What a lot of people can't grasp on here..."
Yes they can.

"...is that you can actually hold shares in a company and still ask questions that might appear critical..."
Not a single person has ever attacked anyone from asking sensible, thoughtful, critical questions.

"...and you don't have to sell out either because you have criticisms".
True. But no LTHs are saying this. What they're generally saying is don't come on here as part of an organised deramping troll gang raising spurious straw men arguments about the company to instil fear. We can all tell the difference. We all know there are risks and we're all happy to chat about them. But what we're not keen to do is listen to the un-researched dross that passes for "critical questions" on the part of the derampers who have an obvious agenda.

"It's not deramping (or what ever that actually really means)".
Yes it is.

"Not everyone is blinkered and following the Pied Piper".
Ironic statement really. Not a single LTH is blinkered, yet it's the 10p brigade who are following the Pied Piper.

Whoever posted this the other day, it's worth reposting: https://www.griproom.com/fun/10-signs-your-company-is-about-to-be-acquired

I've voted. Very efficient with HL actually: sent them a secure message asking them to cast my vote FOR all resolutions and they've done it. Excellent.