Member Info for MKopportunist

I'm thinking a formal bid is likely, but at what price is anyone's guess, given that the books have been open for full due diligence for a while now. There might be a bit of horse trading with Helios, maybe with Helios simply reducing their stake over time at various prices.

I'm thinking the same as GingerHippo, in that the US license is immaterial. At least that's the case in terms of StoneX who don't need it. It might be handy if StoneX don't bid, but I have no confidence in CABP's current management to make full use of it. All now depends really on whether StoneX will bid and what price Helios will take.

Look back through all recent RNS and especially derivatives positions. Not saying today's situation was manufactured for advantage, but I'm certainly left wondering... However, sitting on a healthy stock profit and additional short term spread bet gain today so heyho let's hope a bid comes in.

Katstrangler not much moaning here. At an average around 90 I'm happy at 145, but think an actual bid will materialise above that. I'd previously hoped we might see 175-200, but that's looking quite unlikely now. Current Board has no say, it's all in the hands of the institutional investors (especially Helios).

Expect a recommended deal at around 160p tops. Deliberate delayed downbeat statement to set the scene.

Well bid or no bid, StoneX have put a 145 marker down. Fair value is about 220ish at present, but I'd be tempted to sell at 175+, having an average buy in at 90. This should be an excellent long term prospect, but the management does not fill me with confidence.

I suggest you totally ignore the share price for the coming week. It is likely to be all over the place as jiggery poker takes place. Certainly don't be panicked into selling up now!

Today's note seems little more than a re-hash of what we already know, from a source that has a vested interest and so is not exactly impartial. Having said that, the forward looking statements are useful; even if a 50% discount is applied, the potential remains good. I'm happy to continue holding my modest stake for another 3 to 4 years at least.

Not really surprised at nothing from CABP yet re StoneX, it's comparatively early days. Others are clearly building stakes and, as I don't see institutional holders leaking stock, this can only be from slow leakage from remaining PIs; I suspect some are exiting at what they think might be the best price in quite a while and getting windy about bid outcome. I'm also thinking US license adds nothing for some of the potential suitors, but will be valuable to CABP ongoing if thd bid falls. I just hope the BoD doesn't take its eye off the ball dealing with the actual business whilst dealing with the immediacy of the bid.

Do we have another potential suitor making an appearance, or are they hand in glove with StoneX? Does the continuing deafening silence from CABP indicate they might be negotiating a recommended bid at a higher price?

"to say" not "go say"!

Yes, shares go up on demand increasing but it's wrong go say "not on good reasons." If there are adequate good reasons over an extended period, demand will follow. Excellent example of the difference between short term speculators and long term investors.

This is possibly just that there's little positive upside from 130 to 145, so no major buyers and remaining PIs sitting tight. No doubt some short positions are being established on the chance of no recommendation on bid at 145 and no further bid forthcoming. At same time StoneX may be holding off further acquisitions if getting the vibe they'd neeed to substantially increase offer to get a recommendation. As Helios still holds 45%, nothing is happening without their say so.

Not necessarily, just a standard reporting requirement during bid situations

Who wants to buy more as price rises? Well, just about anyone who believes it will rise sharply in a short space of time if a full offer is made or if more suitors enter the fray. Alternatively, anyone who thinks StoneX will go ahead at 145 and are happy with that lesser amount of upside. Then again, StoneX themselves accumulating below their 145 level. Take your pick.

At current level some selling as best price for a while and fearful of a drop back if full bid(s) don't materialise. You can safely bet those sales are being happily mopped up by StoneX. If you are set on getting out now, I'd suggest placing limit orders a little bit above current price. Otherwise, sit tight and await developments. My only concern going forwards, if bid fever subsides, is that although this is a fundamentally decent business, I have reservations around the Board's competence and abilities to deliver longer term. The shocking comparative lack of open communication over time highlights the disregard for private investors.

@Muliplier7 StoneX already has UK authorisations.

Buyer also needs to replace whole tier of senior management.

My last post should say StoneX DOESN'T need the US license!

Unlikely StoneX is interested in the US license, it does need it. StoneX has made a smart move, picking up stock cheaply to lower the overall cost of acquisition. Alternatively, it turns a tidy profit if another bid materialises at a higher price. I can't see StoneX just continuing the business with the incumbent management, as that's likely to lose them money.

I still say 145 is taking the mick, but I'd certainly exit at 200 and would be tempted at 175+