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Anyone else got the feeling that maybe the matketmakers have got caught with their trousers down on this, taking a lot of stock onto their own book expecting a rapid profit and didn't expect StoneX to walk away?

I've just read yet another exchange of views that unfortunately descended into unnecessary and, quite frankly, childish tit-for-tat. There are plenty of people who visit forums like this, either regularly or less frequently, to gauge others' views, but who don't feel the need to contribute, or simply don't want to participate actively. I pop in from time to time and usually find some sensible commentary, but it's frustrating that I have to wade through so much, "he called me a name, no he started it" sort of nonsense in the process. Just to be clear, this is NOT aimed at any specific individuals, but is a general observation in respect of this particular forum.

@Katstrangler - I'd be very inclined to say if someone can't wait at least a year, then perhaps they shouldn't have committed funds to begin with. To my mind , there's a big difference between longer term investing and short term trading; sure there's room for both, but in either case don't commit funds that you might require quickly. I don't think StoneX found anything adverse either, nor do I think their approach was wholly insincere. I just take the view that for any bid to be recommended, the bidder will need the agreement of the dominant shareholders; in this case it just seems that StoneX and Helios were too far apart on their respective valuations for a deal to be struck at this time. Shame it went right to the wire, but that's how it goes sometimes. I just wish CABP was more communicative generally; quarterly reporting, like in thd US, does have a plus side.

It's an over reaction if you believe there's a disparity between the share price and business value. Helios obviously believe there is, or else they'd have taken Stonex's 145 in a heartbeat. This is a time to buy, if you are so inclined. Helios' position is, of course, quite different to that of a minor private investor.

Yes, it's a massive over reaction. Expect a relatively quick return to 110 territory, certainly by December. As for the future, I have reservations about the competence of management and fearful they could drive a decent business into the ground. If that doesn't happen, plus US license comes through sooner rather than later, plus we get a reasonable trading update, plus CABP significantly improves its' communication practice, then you could see a return to 150ish by mid 2025; at that point look for renewed bid interest. I think StoneX has gone away "for now".

At these prices it's a shame CABP isn't in a position to buy in shares for cancellation.

If you are more interested in trading this stock, rather than long term investing, then the current volatility is your friend and you could do well spread betting.

I don't see this as StoneX retracting a 145 offer, rather that it became obvious that 145 was below Helios' valuation and so it was pointless making a formal offer, with all the associated expense, that would not succeed. I wouldn't be surprised to see StoneX back in six months time, but at what price then is anyone's guess. My hope is that the business is not run into the ground in the meantime, but I do see a lot of potential here still. Certainly silly to sell at present.

The knee-jerk price drop was to be expected, but that doesn't mean it's rational. Fact remains that StoneX originally thought 145 was a reasonable price to pay and I suspect they walked away simply because Helios think it's worth far more and so any low bid was not going to be recommended. Even after recent announcements, 180 seems a fair low end valuation going forwards. Today's a good day to pick up more stock, IF you have confidence in management. For my part, I'll continue to hold but won't be adding any more (unless we drop to around 60).

Great, now on top of non-communicative and incompetent management, there's a heavyweight competitor that's been given a detailed insight into the company's accounts. There is nothing new in CABP's response, just a re-hash of the "jam tomorrow" line and blaming everyone and everything except the incumbent misdirectors.

Great, now on top of non-communicative and incompetent management, there's a heavyweight competitor that's been given a detailed insight into the company's accounts. There is nothing new in CABP's response, just a re-hash of the "jam tomorrow" line and blaming everyone and everything except the incumbent misdirectors.

Katstrangler, that's pretty much what I meant. Will Helios take 145 or do StoneX want it enough to up the offer (or will there be some other non-public deal between the two and 145 or share swap for the others invested; of course that's not legal, but check out StoneX's track record with US regulators).

GingeHippo, the due diligence process might have put them off if they've found anything adverse. However, I think in that situation they'd be more likely to simply adjust the offer unless it was a "black hole" discovery. I'm thinking we'll still see an offer, but at what price and whether it will be recommended or not is why it might go to the wire to see who blinks first.

@Shalamar 7th November is latest date I believe.

Interesting thing on some of these large RNS sale announcements is the lack of any obviously corresponding purchases. So are the market makers taking an awful lot of stock onto their own book, or are there some dealings bring done that either don't trigger disclosure rules or that disclosure rules are being selectively ignored?

StoneX has done a lot of growth by acquisition in recent years, they are certainly no mugs and if they go ahead it will be that they see opportunity. I suspect it's more that StoneX can see synergies with its' business, not that it values current (mis)management.

@RoyGa, The question is whether those are genuine open market sales or are they sales to an as yet unannounced additional party. Supplementary question is whether they are sales with insider knowledge that no bid is likely?

Concert party with StoneX or potential other suitors?

Katstrangler is getting the message, the "real deal" is between institutional holders and StoneX and may well be different behind the scenes to what appears to be the case for Joe Public. The fact that some will be holding stock in both companies is nothing unusual and you can't read too much into that. The "joke" is that, for all the regulatory disclosure requirements, it's nigh on impossible to see exactly what is really happening. I am in agreement that we will get the crumbs from the table and if that's cash profit over 50% above my average cost (around 90p) I'll take that and say thank you.

Multiplier7, yes Helios could take StoneX stock rather than cash. That still puts a fixed exit price on CABP though; if Helios thinks that 145 undervalues CABP they'll be looking for more favourable terms. One way of achieving that would be to retain a reduced stake with "milestone" future agreed sales to StoneX at better prices; an option that won't be available to smaller investors.