Member Info for MKopportunist

Helios now has (with irrevocable undertakings) well over 50% (about 54% when I last checked) and so it's unlikely any counterbid will be successful unless a crazy price was offered. Holding on in hope of a higher price is a fool's errand; your funds can be better deployed elsewhere.

It's a junior miner, share price volatility comes with the territory. You'd only be concerned about a temporary 30% fall if you'd bought high and needed to sell now, which is not something a true investor would do. If you have committed funds you can't afford to lose, you shouldn't be speculating on short term price movements as that's a fool's game; that may sound harsh but it's true.

Helios can buy in the open market above 85 and opt not to proceed for the time being. It can also, as majority shareholder, pack the BoD with it's own appointees. Don't for one minute think that takeover rules are as rigidly applied as you might like. As with many legalities, there are plenty of options available that comply but do not deliver the outcome you might have expected.

Swingman, Helios can pick up stock in the market at any price it wants; it's not constrained to pay only at it's offer price. Helios has the upper hand and can pretty much do as it likes, private investors need to realise they count for nothing. If you can get out between 90p-100p that's about the best you're likely to see (short of StoneX going mental and offering silly money, which isn't going to happen).

Single digit trades aren't that uncommon on AIM. Could be market makers, or automated trades (possibly also "fractional trading" by either automated systems or smaller private investors).

Helios can pick up stock in the market to take them to 90%. They could then expropriate other holders and sell to StoneX at 110p themselves. Alternatively they may have other suitors waiting. Either way, private shareholders are stuffed, as all Helios need do is to bide their time and outwait PIs.

GainWithJane, what did Rothschild say? "The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets."

Large shareholders could easily decide to go along with Helios taking CABP private without selling stock; Helios would almost certainly accommodate any large enough holder that wanted to go down that route.

Before everyone gets too carried away, these are indeed not a bad set of results but they must be viewed in context of the Board's history to date and, most importantly, in the context of outcomes in comparison to the company's peer group over the same time frame. So, we have one reasonable set of results and no one disagrees that a bid at 84p is perhaps opportunistic, but I'd have reservations against hoping for much above 95-100p at present. Now if the Board turns in another set of half decent results in another six months time, then it might justify a re-rating.

It seems the preferred option for Helios would be to take it private again and then carve it up for what it can get for those bits of the business that are actually worth anything. There was insufficient interest in the entirety of the business to interest StoneX after due diligence and the Board hasn't done enough since to make this a more attractive longer term proposition. Many excuses have been put forward for underperformance and much noise has been made about restructuring and repositioning, but with little tangible results. Even if soon to be published results show some improvement, it will be from a low starting point and should in fact be looked at in comparison to what was put forward at the time of the IPO.

Gussy, the Board is looking to its own interests. My exposure is a tad more than a hundred quid, but I'm happy to take a short term profit on this as there's no decent long term value here If you were unfortunate enough to have been duped at the time of the IPO, I can well understand your reluctance to sell now, but you'll be waiting forever if you think you'll see 300p plus

@Gussy I didn't say 90p was fair value, but that I think it could well be enough for Helios to get a Board recommendation. As my only interest here now is from a short term trading perspective my approach will be quite different from long term holders. I honestly don't think this business is going anywhere truly meaningful any time soon

Unfortunately CABP has a history of underperformance and "jam tomorrow" statements. Helios is already the major shareholder and could make life very uncomfortable for a recalcitrant Board.

Expect an increased, recommended bid, from Helios, shortly after results announcement on 5th March. Don't expect any more than £1 and think 90p might do it

The statement from Helios is laughable. Basically saying, we think the company, in which we hold approaching half of the issued share capital, is rubbish and so we want to buy the other half that we don't already own. This, after managing to make a small fortune unloading at IPO, is a bit of a cheeky, to put it mildly. Helios is clearly trying to pull a fast one. Expect them to come back with a higher offer around results time, but don't expect much above 100p from anyone, as I said the other day.

Bear in mind Helios already has a massive stake. Also, the size, nature and scope of CABPs business would not add much value for StoneX, which is presumably one of the reasons they walked away previously. It does seem highly likely a further offer will surface, especially as Helios are now "on the clock", so to speak. When the full results come out in March, don't be surprised to see a revised offer (from whoever) appear around the 100p mark. It would be hard to put a much higher value forward based on a single year's decent results, after a couple of lacklustre years. Still, now is probably not a bad time still for a modest short term punt.

Everyone has sold up and moved on, but don't tell anyone else as it's a big secret. Hush......

Ok, how many people saw "Diamond drilling" in the RNS and read no further, rushing simply to buy, on the basis of, "Never mind the titanium, they've found diamonds!" Of course, there was nothing in that and no corresponding price jump, so they are now sitting on, or have sold at, a loss.

Well that came a bit sooner than anticipated. The financing details are interesting, particularly the exercise prices of the warrants. I have $4-$5 tentatively pencilled in as a target here over the next 12-18 months, but I suspect it could go much higher.

Bilbnob, without going into the fine detail and multiple reasons this can happen, the most likely explanation is that having a wide spread but quoting within it is that it provides the market makers with greater flexibility when there's heightened volatility (more risk) or reduced liquidity.