Member Info for miles44

I honestly thought that the share price would go substantially lower from the highs of around 315 because the majority of market participants between Christmas and New Year (calm period) normally are us retail investors. And I thought that at least some will be ready to sell part of their holding (or all) and personally know some former holders who sold just because their old sell limit got activated the day it rose 31 %. As for the BIG money to flow in that´s going to happen in the first 2 weeks of January. Fund managers aren´t active right now and as Linda stated the 21st, even some analysts had to be reactivated for the webcast, already being in Christmas holidays. So no-one should over-estimate any "share price movement" since the 21st - the only thing that has actually happened is that the share price has astonishingly held up very nicely which for me indicates that at least 1 or 2 major market participants are collecting some shares at current prices. As I said: the big money is going to get active on this stock in the first 2 weeks of January. And lets see what share prices we´ll see then ... you all have a good, happy and successful 2024 :) Was a pleasure writing with all :) Fingers crossed for HBR 600 p in 2024 :)

The "at least 3 years of the CEO´s salary must be invested by him/her in shares of the company" rule is - btw - also a rule of "good governance" - so "ESG" ... remember "ESG" was a very good thing in its beginnings ... it just got perverted a lot in the last lets say 3 years. Especially the "G" (governance) part of it is still very valid though ...

Remember Linda also is a current shareholder, holding around 1 % of the company´s shares. Always (!) good to have a CEO with lots of skin in the game/private money in shares. As a general rule I only invest in a companies where the CEO holds shares of an amount at least worth 3 years of his/her salary. Otherwise one risks to have a management that only deals their own interests or the interests of a certain group of shareholders

Has anyone a link to the new broker ratings? I heard there are 2 new ratings out since the announcement... thanks for helping with this and - of course - Merry Christmas to all of you :)

As it was announced that Layaran has "more than 6 trillion cubic feet (Tcf)" and the same was announced for the Timpan field last year and Timpan added 100 mmboe to 2C resources to Harbour (holding 40% of TImpan), Layaran might add 50 mmboe to 2C (HBR holding 20% of Layaran).

Https://kpmg.com/uk/en/home/insights/2023/11/tmd-autumn-statement-changes-to-the-energy-windfall-taxes.html

@Stupmy the short answer is yes. Tax is just one point, it will still save taxes on the decommissioning of platforms used for CCS - besides the fact that platforms used for CCS will not have to be decommissioned in a LONG time and therefore the company will save money by not having decom costs for them in the next ... 10-15 years. Plus carbon certificate market is the second. Plus income from carbon storage another one.

Happy third advent Sunday to all - and hi @Stupmy - @NewKOTB gave you the major answer to your question already. Second reason is that HBR has huge decommissioning liabilities and with changing tax laws "oil and gas assets which are repurposed for use in CCS" get beneficial tax treatment. Third reasons is that that margins for co2-storage are expected to be low ... sth like 8-9 % ... but its still a steady and reliable income flow (no hedges needed). Fourth reason is that becoming "co2-neutral" for HBR will become a lot easier with a CCS project as you can partially balance the co2 you emit with the co2 you help getting out of the athmosphere. And as co2 will get taxed higher and higher in the coming years, Viking and Acorn will help saving CO2-certificats

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRfh1RP_OqA

@Jefff @bonker99 love you two discussing haha :) representing both possible scenarios actually..

Thanks for the quick answer and the link @bonker99

if you want, we can write on x - I follow you already as you know :) clever chap you definitely are ;)

@bonker99 great posts from you on x about oil - regularly

whats your view on HBR currently? would be interesting. I know you´re holding them ... but nevertheless your "neutral" opinion is welcome

West Capella drill ship still at Layaran position and not moving. Interestingly now surrounded by 4 (!) support vessels. Looks like a lot of action over there... following link is better then the old one (marinetraffic.com) as its data is just 6 hours old.

https://www.shiplocation.com/vessels/WEST-CAPELLA/MARINE-TRAFFIC/9372523#google_vignette

@Jefff no apologies necessary :) all good :) discussing sometimes means different opinions, thats good. Nobody needs the form of "discussion" where everyone just tells the other guys how right "we" all are ... critical thinking is key to success

@Jefff: what do you want to tell us with your post, concerning EIG? No need for any bad mood Jefff, btw. :) all good: your opinion about "effecting" or "affecting" the share price is partly different from mine - so be it :)

@Jefff well the bank buys it with the contractual agreement to sell it back after the swap ends and earns its money not by making gains with the share price, but with the fees of the swap-agreement. So economically it doesn´t influence the share price - as you have seen in the past, the number of shares held by BoA has varied hugely in the past months without making a difference on the share price. BUT of course the drop in BoA´s holding suggests that the client (major shareholder) is a lot less pessimistic about the share price. And it would hurt that major shareholder a lot less, if the price now goes up. If for example EIG would be that client, the own around 18 % now. and profit from a rising share price with 15 % of these 18 % (instead of 10 % of 18 % before ending that chunk of swaps ... So for sure it is a positive development. Have a good day @Jefff :)

Well, I don´t know for sure who is their client, but the system works as follows: imagine you are a major shareholder, holding at least 8 % of the company. You want to hedge your position as you expect falling prices. What you do is: you do a swap-contract with your bank (in this case: BoA). Your bank of course has to counter-hedge the swap = buy and hold the shares as an underlying for the swap. They OF COURSE do not buy them on the open market, but from you as part of the swap agreement. Explaining the swap in detail isn´t possible as large swap agreements are subject to individual clauses, each contract may be different. But once the swap is cancelled the underlying is given back to the client of course. And thats what we saw. BoA is still holding a bit (was it 3 %?), but having given back 5 % to the client suggests that this client doesn´t see a HIGH risk of falling prices anymore and wants a lot less downside protection (he has to pay for it of course so no need to hedge when you think prices will be stable or rising). Hope that explains it a little :)

I just watched the H 1 results webcast from August again. In it, Linda mentioned that management would give guidance for 2024 production etc "later this year" ... and I did realize that this hasn´t happened. Production update 29th of November was only looking forward until year end 2023. Reason? Only reason I can see is M&A. Indonesia, Mexico and Malaysia will not come into production in 2024. True: they might influence capex spending quite substantially, depending on the outcome .. but I guess that not mentioning guidance for 2024 until maybe end of January 2024 or even spring 2024 does make more sense if one suggests that HBR might actually buy producing assets in the next month - in which case it really would n´t make sense at all to give guidance for the whole year now. So I guess - just as you guys already mentioned, especially @AlexTrader0 and @bonker99, the next lets say 5 months will be really interesting here. Potentially game-changing and value-enhancing

@Jefff Bank of America are acting for a client seeking downward protection. BoA therefore selling the shares/Swaps means that that mentioned client has decided that he needs (a lot) less downside protection now. Makes sense, as 1. price is already way down 2. there now is a buyer in the market (Slim Helu). So all in all BoA selling such a lot has a positive note. Apparently that major shareholder has a substantially more positive view on HBR now

Btw: West Capella drillship now surrounded by three OSV´s: one is currently returning to LHOKSEUMAWE harbour in Indonesia, so my guess that drilling Layaran may be finished and crews and the OSV are exchanged plus and new supplies brought to West Capella could be right ... https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:97.133/centery:6.120/zoom:14

I heard that Enquest actively approached HBR to be bought some months ago. HBR commented in H1 results webcast about having been approached by several smaller producers ... and as far as I have heard, Enquest was one of them, making a lot of advertisement about their high tax losses which (thats true) could be used by a company like HBR to reduce the EPL. HBR hasn´t moved on that front and so far has done well as Enquest´s share price has come down since this summer. There might be some sort of decision for Enquest this months maybe as many people on twitter (and some here) only see their great FCF numbers, reducing debt etc etc ... but their problem might be their reduced covenant for the RBL due to the EPL with time until year end to reduce debt to the new RBL limit ... I haven´t checked that but all RBL facilities for North Sea producers were reduced a LOT this summer as we know ... and as I said I have heard things like Enquest having problems to get debt down enough till year end ... So I very much guess that Enquest is preparing sth .. their CFO leaving for a subsidiary, their delisting of Stockholm ... might be hints that they are already in preparations for the integration in another company ... but its all just speculation of course ... just like we speculated about Orcadian, who as it turns out now work with Pingpong Energy ... and why not speculate a little :) IF Enquest is bought by someone, I guess the market will know it till year end ... and who knows .. maybe the sudden rise in the share price today already means sth? ... as always: patience :)