Member Info for miles44

capital reduction ... any comments/opinions?

patience has payed so far and will pay in the future. Just think of @NoFear for example ... exited for months and then ... before it went up ... he sold ... he was right... and had patience ... but not enough

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/exploration-production/401267/harbour-energy-north-sea-2022/

true .... but:
1. HBR/Linda said they do not concentrate on M&A in the North Sea, but want to buy sth international
2. it´s true that HBR knows that "package", CNOOC offers, quite well.. but as I just mentioned: the price CNOOC wants does not reflect current market valuations for oil & gas assets ...
I guess that if the chinese really want to sell ... they will have to go down substantially with their price target and they know it. And even if they´d go down, Harbour might not be interested ...

I did like your posts in the "old" days of Harbour last year. Good you´re "in" again. As for the share price: https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/400178/cnooc-harbour-neo-waldorf/
These CNOOC assets have an output of 50.000 boe/day = 25% of Harbour´s current output. I don´t know their reserve status, but given that the biggest chunk in it is a stake in Buzzard and Buzzard also (21%) belongs to Harbour, I suppose the 2P/2C status could be comparable to Harbours. And as the price for the assets is valued at 3bn USD, this means that current (!) valuation of Harbour´s assets should be around 12 bn USD. Deducting debt that leaves us with the assessment of Harbour being 50% undervalued at current market prices. Or in other words: Harbour is a 2bagger, not accounting for the fact that Harbour´s business model isn´t limited to just holding or even selling producing assets, but to buy more of them at a bargain price. So as for me I stick to the pricing model of a swiss asset manager from SIA funds I know ... at current prices HBR is a 3bagger. Will take time.... but we´ll get there.

Hi @Cigam - did I miss sth or is it your first post here for quite some time? WELCOME back :)

with the lockup of EIG´s shares having ended the free float of the share is up around a third. Which means that its weighing in the FTSE 250 will increase. So Fidelity could just adapt its holding to this higher index weighing

any opinions about tomorrow´s numbers and presentation?

only exception to this would of course be if a combination of Tolmount online plus results in March lets HBR rise to well over 6 GBP. Not probable though. FTSE 100 is a longer term waiting thing, but I agree that HBR might make it this year.

just checked that: Polymetal and Evraz will have to leave the FTSE 100 soon. So 2 new companies will be admitted and that will be Endeavour Mining with a market cap f 5 bn and another company. Second at the moment is Howden with a market cap of 4.7. Then again, Harbour´s market cap only counts 63% as it is market cap multiplied free float and the 37% of EIG do not count as they are still locked up. Means definitely NO (!) entry in the FTSE 100 before April 1st. IF ... of course HBR gains in value AND keeps these gains in April and May ... than I´d say inclusion by summer is probable.

good point

It’s market cap multiplied with free float. So HBRs weighing on the FTSE 250 will rise around 50% on April 1st with EIGs 37% unlocked. Means: index buying in FTSE 250 come April/May. And also means: no inclusion in FTSE 100 before April. Inclusion in FTSE 100 in 2022 is possible. As for debt: 1.5bn will be reached YE 2022

@Oil I just wrote before that I respect your view. And that I guess that we´ll see in April or March if you were right or not :)

And as I guess you are not planning to buy or sell any share until April - why should you spend time in this forum :)

So: no offense intended. Just many people talking negatively about shares and I don´t really get it. It´s easy: if someone doesn´t like a share: just move on, there are enough others :)

Btw: shorting the share I would consider to be quite insane... as any positive news will ... well .. I wouldn´t short this share now :) And you don´t either, I guess. You´re just writing here to help others understand better.

@Oil take it easy man :) you have your investment decision. Other´s have theirs. Cool?

So just wait and see and make your bargain purchase in April or so.

No need to continue to try to bash the share price now, right? Go out and enjoy life, nature and your gf instead :)

ah and btw selling of creditors is done. No more selling pressure from them. And if you ask why the share price is still where it is then: its buyers waiting for Tolmount/YE results and EIG.
Exactly as @oil

@Oil delivers one of the reasons many buyers are still waiting right now: waiting for Tolmount and if there´s another delay. Waiting for results 17th of March and waiting for EIG´s lockup ending.

One thing is for sure happening the 1st of April: free float will rise by 37% and as maybe some of you know, the weighing a company gets in the FTSE 250 and 100 depends on your market cap multiplied with your fee float. So index funds will have to buy a good amount of shares come April and May as with the next index reorganisation, the weighing of HBR in the FTSE 250 will rise 50%.

As for EIG´s plans it is a possiblilty that they ll sell sth - not less, not more. @Oil wants to wait and be on the safe side, which is understandable. Others like me see the immense value and think: if there are some more sellers to come to the market, let them sell. Those waiting imo take the risk of waking up one morning in the next weeks and seeing an RNS with Tolmount coming online - and those wanting to wait for lets say mid April also risk results coming out 17th of March and HBR - for the first time - having correct numbers for most of the automated/AI-managed stock scanners with also automated/AI-managed buying-progammes.

Waiting is a good thing with HBR - but for us retail investors, waiting WITH the share is better than without it. AI programmes will jump the share faster than you probably .. but hey: no lack of respect to you @Oil - your approach is valuable as well

@Corriedog

I got your numbers for 2021 and 2022 checked by a former analyst I know (who is also invested in HBR) and his comment was "ballpark correct ....." and "It is now one of my biggest positions and I think that we are just waiting for a catalyst to propel the shares higher."

the thing is: one day we might wake up and get that RNS about Tolmount starting commissioning ... it might be a few weeks to go for that day ... or not ... I personally bought tonight at around the 3.48 level ... and I dont mind to catch the lowest price possible.... I now have a nice average price anyway around 3.46 so I´m now sitting and waiting for the next weeks ....

I bought more today. I guess for the 5th or 6th time now since June 2021

Valuation is great and I guess it´s just a waiting game until 17th of March

@corriedog I repeat myself: finally someone in this forum with some level of quality. And to add: if HBR doubles this year I´ll invite you for as many beers as you can drink and I´ll invite Elizabeth Brooks for dinner :)