Member Info for miles44

@NoFear old friend - nice to read you. Just looked at Capita´s share price as you recommended it when you sold out here. Still seeing value in that share? As for me: long and strong in HBR

For 2022 I guess = estimated PE… but how do you get to 1.25 GBP?

Given the too optimistic stance of Phil Kirk in the past and given the fact that covid related work shortages (not the weather) has extended the time needed for the repairs, it was about clear that it wouldn´t - and not by far - be end of January for the start of Tolmount. I mentioned in the past that end of February is a much more realistic guess and I still think that Tolmount will be online before the presentation on 17th of March.

The thing is: possible buyers are now is waiting for 3 things: Tolmount - numbers - and what EIG will do come April.

All it therefore needs is to wait. Tolmount will come online some time this spring. Numbers will be good. The only real question is if EIG will dump its shares on the market once they can. They are highly specialised in the oil&gas business and I therefore doubt that they´ll do sth irrational like selling shares on the open market. But we´ll have to see.

As a matter of fact, in around 3 months all the above questions should be answered.

Selling or even shorting now could prove to be quite the wrong thing. And no-one is really selling now anyway. It´s just owners are waiting - and buyers waiting with their decision to buy as well. No real volume and the share goes nowhere as well.

yes, Barclays 570 was ok last year maybe, but not with oil at 90 and gas prices where they are now. Plus it becomes clearer and clearer to the financial community that the 55/60 USD on oil Harbour is calculating its reserves with in 2023/2024... might not be true, but the longer term value of (all) oil&gas companies might better be evaluated with over oil over 100 ... so yes: upside is great in Harbour ... and it´ll come out with numbers 17th of March ...

@Pearls first dividend in May. Second around November. That´s what was mentioned at CMD

@Jefff that´s what I thought as well, but here comes Blackrock, which a year ago was still taking part of divesting in coal, oil etc ... now saying they never wanted to divest out of oil and gas ... of course ... "never" ... reminds me of that saying from former GDR general secretary in the 1960s that "no-one has the intention to build a wall" until suddenly the Berlin Wall was built... but hey: I take it as a positive for them that they have changed their mind (even though they´re hiding it)... https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Blackrock-Oil-Firms-With-Net-Zero-Plans-Are-An-Under-Appreciated-Opportunity.html

@RG100 one couldn´t say it better! short, but great post.

well, it´s dead season right now with no news about Tolmount, no production or financial update and so we just all have to wait and see. What is of course and undoubtedly positive is oil and gas prices. Guess the only (and best) thing to do is to concentrate on the only "real" info we have right now: oil and gas prices. Even without Tolmount, the company is undervalued. So even if the company wouldn´t get Tolmount going at all, it would still be undervalued. Not as much as with it of course. But the current prices, given the huge rise in o&g prices, is ridiculous by any way of calculation of course.

Sometimes it´s hard to be ahead of the markets sometimes, being forced to sit and wait for the general public to see what you already saw months ago... and with HBR even being ahead of the o&g markets you had and have to "suffer" even longer with all the selling pressure.... but as I said before: good things come to those who wait.

:-)))

@Pearls Imo you are right and wrong: right = US investors have started the oil rallye inside the US and as one has seen, interest has also turned to international (non-US) majors like Petrobras, BP or Shell. Their shareprice has gone up lately. As for other smaller producers in the UK, Europe and elsewhere outside the US, we might see some investor interest building up in the coming months, so in this point you´re right.
Where - imo - you are wrong is about taking over HBR: many people forget that not only does EIG own 36% of HBR directly, but "HBR clients" own around 34% of HBR - meaning EIG´s several closed PE funds own another 34% and these funds are of course managed by EIG. Means: EIG directly and indirectly owns around 70% of HBR. That´s why one of EIG´s senior advisors, Linda, has been places as the CEO of Harbour. This of course does not mean that EIG is not willing to sell HBR to someone in the future... it will all depend on the price and I strongly guess that at current prices neither EIG nor their funds are willing to sell a stake of the company. As one can read in the several messages of the board and from Linda, HBR has and will pay down debt, wait for the selling pressure to end and will - this year or next year - aquire more assets. Their aim is to enter the FTSE 100 sooner or later as this will automatically trigger several index funds to buy the share. Which will support a further price rise. Meaning: they will first make the company bigger once more to give it a better market cap and then ... maybe some time in the next 2 or 3 years - sell the whole company to someone. Or not. At the moment, you don´t see any major interest from oil companies for buying other oil companies and you remember that Neptune didn´t want to buy HBR, but merge with them to get access to the stock market as they didn´t (and still do not) want to IPO, given their fear of having to sell their shares for a totally undervalued price.
So: no hostile take-over possible. But be sure that EIG will look to add value to its ownership and is clever enough to maybe sell some of their shares to index funds (forced buyers) once it enters the FTSE 100..

I do agree with your conclusion of course: good times come to those who wait

I agree - I read at energyvoice that he´ll quit end of February and immediately thought: so he´ll start Tolmount and end his job in harmony plus - as was mentioned - will keep his shares.
I even think that maybe he would have quit earlier, but wanted (and wants) to bring Tolmount online before he leaves.

@Jefff my friend ;) I guess we are both right: you are right that - especially british - oil&gas companies are all WAY undervalued. Things are a little better in the US, as US investors are more open to making a good profit and not as dominated by "woke" institutional investors, but we all know that things change - slowly, but they do. One can see it with Shell and BP finally going up and money will slowly trickle down to mid-cap producers and smaller producers... even in the UK and Europe.. it´s just that these companies are the last to receive attention. And therefore still great value.
If you then compare the share price of other UK oilers, you ll see that HBR - as mentioned quite often on this board - is one of the least performing stocks. So - ALL UK oilers are undervalued, but HBR, not rising even a bit since April - is especially undervalued as it was and is held down by selling pressure and by EIG having apparently being content buying the shares in the current range for the last months.

So after all it just confirms that keeping the patience with this stock for some more months might be a good idea

well, that´s why EIG is IN the market: good timing. Same for its investors, who also hold a good chunk of HBR. Plus for Phil, Linda - and us.
Take-over by others... well: EIG and its investors owned 70% last April and I guess they are not advising their investors to sell at these prices, but probably the contrary: to buy as long as selling pressure was weighing on the price (seems to have wained) and as long as the good news is not out.
If one watched the CMD presentation, one thing was quite obvious for many: the presentation of senior staff about production coming online etc and the possibility to easily replace production in coming years with Britannia etc. was in good contrast to the image given by the presentations (being extremely vage or even negative) and especially by Linda who was giving a "very conservative" image of the company´s reserves and resources, to say the least. So there is EIG having an interest in NOT presenting the company in a positive way or better: in the least positive way possible... why? well... think of it and you will get an idea why: the GOOD news will come out - it has to come out at some point, meaning: with the first annual numbers, the outlook and Tolmount coming online. So the company´s shares will then re-rate. But there also is a certain interest in keeping the share price down before it, as EIG either has bought shares from the banks (selling) for their clients in the last months and wants share to go up once they have collected the maximum - or wants to sell their shares with the good news coming in. Or both. I personally do not think they want to sell, as the good news will be out in March - so before they can sell. And I also don´t think that they´ll sell while they hold the same shares for their clients. Some banks have done this sort of illoyal treatment of their own clients already... but of course this doesn´t bode well if you know your clients and want to keep them. So my guess is that the main reason for the share price being at about the same price range now for months is: banks selling their shares, clients of EIG buying them while numbers in September were negatively affected by merger costs and other one-off costs (so gave a negative image of the company) plus CMD presenting the company in a way that did not and was not meant to attract investors.

Conclusion: GOOD THINGS COME TO THOSE WHO WAIT :)

"Harbour, which is led by CEO Linda Cook, is unlikely to replace Kirk's role, a company spokesperson told Reuters."

Fits to what I wrote - Phil´s position was transitory and his demise in February was certainly already fixed when they made the merger deal last year. Wouldn´t surprise me if the document organizing his transitory role was signed exactly a year ago :)

@Sauerkraut what I mean is that the company is effectively run bei EIG. Linda isn´t even in EIG´s top management, but just a senior advisor. https://eigpartners.com/team/
Means that she does with HBR what she is told by EIG and to make that clear: thats not bad at all! Just look at the guys working for EIG and especially their top management: my respects! One would wish many oil & gas companies had such clever and experienced managers at their top. So I was and am all confident that these guys not only took out Premier Oil for the best price ever - but will also multiply their investment in Harbour, either selling it, merging it or keep it going and buying some more assets to grow it further (as was mentioned by Linda) and maybe sell it in a few years, once the oil market has become a "hot" investment area once again (which would - I guess - be the wisest choice, but it all depends on what offers you get of course).

So yes, Phil only had a transitory role in the company, will apparently keep his shares and the "game plan" of EIG will be clear to everyone come spring and summer.

But as I said: it´ll be a good one. Look at their management and their other investments (in oil and gas companies) and you know they know the business. They have some nice holdings in US oil and gas companies and as Linda mentioned that they want to invest in US GOM ... that´s probably the way it goes: being bought by one of EIG´s US companies, buying from one of these companies or merging with them... just a guess of course.

I always wondered why the company needs a "second CEO" for Europe, given 80% of its business is in Europe anyway... so I guess Phil´s position was a transitory one, transferring his knowledge of leading Chrysaor for over 13 years to EIG. So thinking a little about it, it all makes sense. Also him keeping his shares as it is undoubtedly a good investment.

Phil´s departure would make sense if EIG would sell HBR to another (bigger) company. I guess EIG will want to sell its holding with a nice profit come April (and that´s what is holding the price down). It´d also make sense if HBR would be merged with Neptune and Neptune would take some positions in top management. Phil was the founder and head of Chrysaor since 2007 and I guess his demise follows a plan struck with EIG when Chrysaor and Premier merged. Interesting times ahead in the next weeks, thats for sure.

yes, his communication was a bit over-optimistic, thats what he himself commented as well at Capital Markets Day. And I was close to complaining about it to IR, but didn´t. I generally like people to be well-motivated, but not over-promising. On the other hand, the outlook for production etc. was more than conservative - not to say too pessimistic ...

@Givingthelowdown @Pearls Would you explain?

So he will keep his shareholding, which is about logic. Guess he got another job, he was always attracted by Carbon Capture - maybe he´ll do sth in this area. So of course not "good" news, but not bad news either. As we saw at Capital Market Day, HBR has some competent guys to possibly replace him. Wish you well and all the best to you, Phil !