Member Info for miles44

well guys, HBR reddit forum now has 108 members... its less "active" than the LSE, but if you leave aside all the nonsense, all the pump and dump and all the posts from people who are apparently suffering from bore-out.... I prefer a forum with lets say only 40% of posts per day, but only information, real opinion or sth to laugh together ... and we all know we will never (!) get rid of certain posters here.... thats just true ... a good forum has to have a strict "2 offenses and you´re out"-policy. This one hasn´t and the "normal" guys suffer from it. So I propose for all the normal posters to switch to reddit HBR

@Modestus I advise you to come to the Harbour reddit forum. It is moderated a lot better, insulting posts get kicked out immediately and besides being funny sometimes it contains real info and real opinions

"SK has called this right a while ago."

@Sauerkraut what was it that you called a while ago?

well - there are people out there who think that "the world should be saved from climate death" and if the economy has to go on its knees for it .. well .. that d be part of the costs we d have to take ... "I´d better kill the economy than my children" ... has been a sentence I got from a friend of mine with a well-payed job in a ministry ... but of course not everyone agrees to such ... well ... let´s call it "consequent" views and politicians have to be re-elected from time to time ...

With such astonishing results as Biden wanting to abolish oil and gas and promising to get these companies on their knees and pay for their damages to climate on the one hand ... and asking the Saudis and then ... more quietly .. his own O&G industry to produce more to keep prices at the pump down ...

I personally understand people who are - one may share that view or not - seriously worried about climate change and what it will do to future generations. I even understand that view I mentioned about wrecking the world economy for the sake of humanity ... it´s just not how things will turn out.

As China, India, Russia and others dont worry about emissions, the idea to make emissions more costly etc etc does not work and only creates economic disadvantages to those who follow that path. Hopefully (!) the climate problem can and will be solved by technology and by finding a way to use energy better than we have and than we currently do.

In the short and medium term though... governments will have and will realize that going carbon free by forbidding oil and gas development and usage is the wrong way. And seeing what happens to Cambo with the higher and higher oil and gas prices ... just shows that governments are getting it that energy transition might be necessary .. but that it should be done in a reasonable way.

@Jefff well, the ALL creditors who were able to sell before end of September (not locked up) together had 18% of shares, but each of them was not part of the lock-up as their individual % of shares was too low. So they also could sell without giving public notice. And as for those former Chrysaor investors having been subject to the lockup until September, there have not been any announcements, so ... if there was some selling, it wasn´t a sufficient amount to trigger an RNS. Imo most former Chrysaor investors still have kept their stake. These are investors and not forced sellers and I don´t think it would be very wise to sell right now if you already were a long-term PI holder before ...

Got an email today from a guy I know whose company owns a bunch of HBR. They see Harbour at current prices due to a lot of forced sellers from the debt to equity conversion and also Chrysaor share lock ups and see the share price at 650p after a rerating in 2022 at oil $80 and gas $3.5 and a much higher share price at oil $100+.

@Jefff - nice to read from you as well :) I do not suppose that the information given to the market is wrong, as this would constitute a false market information. Management is far too clever to do this and there is also no "need" to transfix the market with wrong informations as the company does well. The pipe laying might well be for Tolmount East, as it is supposed to come online in 2023. But I don´t know and I haven´t asked them. Investing is also about trust and I personally think that Harbour has an experienced and trustworthy management. Otherwise I would be somewhere else :)

Yes, @Obsolete - once again a good post. Great to have you on this forum

@Sauerkraut thanks for letting us smile a little on these sad days :)

@Obsolete I guess your thoughts could be right.

agreed, SK, there are still sellers out there willing to sell in the trading range of last year ... and certainly not enough/nearly no buyers. Looking at the low volume explains it, I guess. Buyers of oil stocks at the moment are concentrating on the US plus UK majors like BP and Shell. Buyers might get interested here once there (finally?) would be some good news. In the absence of any news... its more or less seller´s willingness to sell up to a certain (low) price that is tested again and again. The share price is driven down by them until the selling stops... it recovers .. and selling restarts ... what one could or should know of course is that current oil and gas prices should produce some good news... just not now ....

https://www.energyvoice.com/renewables-energy-transition/ccs/uk-ccs/379659/scottish-government-frees-up-80m-in-bid-to-secure-track-1-status-for-scottish-cluster/

to end this day on a positive note :)

@Rookie1 Have you had difficulties communicating with IR? As for your thought about getting lined up ... I already thought about that as well, but dismissed it as it would suggest that there would be a possible buyer keeping the share price down ... or some sort of M&A plans including a low HRB share price... and as much as I see possible buyers or partners interested in a low share price ... and maybe even some banks having this interest in mind ... I dont see any interest in it on Harbour´s side including management, holding about 2% of the company. They and many other major current shareholders also would make the same bad deal ... so, tempting as it is to "think badly" ... I dont believe it. What I think is what was already posted here before today: around 16% of all existing shares have been sold by creditors selling their 18% stake .. plus some of the shares that got unblocked end of September may also have been sold... so I guess - even though I underestimated the will of certain parties to get rid of their shares at current low prices: it is still selling pressure from creditors and unblocked shareholders holding the stock down.

So lets hope this will get better soon.

what comes to my mind: the share price is under its level of May/June 2021 ... and comparing the market situation then and now .... for me it´s a massive miscalculation: either the market was too optimistic at the time ... or is too pessimistic/ignorant right now ... but definitely the situation for the company today is better than 9 months ago ... would be great to have your views on this, guys

I dont see the major shareholder selling shares on the market at these prices. But what is true of course is that former creditors sold most of their 18% of shares in 2021. They sold 10% of the companys shares from April to end of September (Phil Kirk mentioned this) and probably have now sold another ... 5-6% ... that clearly has kept the share price down. PLUS of course the view/angst of some possible buyers about unblocked shareholders being able to sell at a certain date. It is questionable if any of the shareholders who were unblocked end of September have sold. And it is also highly questionable that EIG will sell part of their 37% holding in April or May.... but of course it keeps some buyers from buying the share. There was that kind of fear (a massive fall in share prices due to investors unblocked end of September ... and we didnt see it falling ... same thing might happen in April .... but what counts is that any positive mood about the share price is being held down by actual selling ... and by this fear of seeing even more selling in April ... also means to me that this here continues to be a game of patience ... unfortunately nobody also knows when the price might move up ... a trading update for 2021 tomorrow as we saw with Genel and it might jump 10% on a single day... or not ... frustrating situation of course ... but I will hold my position

yes, good find, @Surfit

thanks

@laidback I think what your calculations highlight well is the great potential of having 1/3 of 2022 production in natgas unhedged. I personally dont care if HBR is debt free end of 2022 already or "only" in summer 2023... what your calcs show is the absolute undervaluation and thats great

already did so :) thanks again :)

You got that exactly right, @laidback

I hope I get your permission to copypaste your post on reddit

thx @Jefff
always nice to chat with you

no lockdowns in Scotland, @Jefff?