RE: Forum comments30 Sep 2021 14:44
funny that the rare (!) thing happens and as a retail investor you get informed about a future stock overhang of 18% by management (happened in April, by Linda, mentioning at the time that "creditors selling might cause some volatility in the stock"), listen to the webcast again in case... then thats exactly what happens: the stock goes down. So first question: why buy in April if management tells you in between the lines to wait.
Then end of August we get the info that half of these 18% are sold and end of September we kindly get the info that "more than half" of it has been sold. So you can roughly calculate that about 11% have been sold now. 7% still out.
You also get the advance info that there´s a lock-up that ends 1st of October. And that this lock-up was a condition for the merger by the creditors. You think a little and ask yourself... why did they do that? Hmmm ... yes: to sell their shares between April and September.
Now you know that 1st of October still 7% of stocks are to be sold by creditors. Plus any investor apart EIG willing to sell on the market can do so starting tomorrow.
And you think again: is there still a stock overhang?
Answer is: YES
IF (!) investors are clever, they will keep their shares and most of them will, but probably not all.
IF (!) investors are clever, they will at least not sell right now, as the share price is way too low, but who knows. Never calculate with the cleverness of others.
One thing s for sure though: selling pressure might rise before it falls and the price might tank a lot more before it goes up (@ephiphany121: exactly what you wrote), but selling pressure will in the medium term go down and buying will catch up.
So whoever told you to "wait a few more days/weeks" if ever you looked at the publicly available schedule from the company about lock-ups, plus listened to management giving you free timing advice ... you should know that we re
1. at the end of the first lock-up today
2. have sufferd 6 months of selling pressure by banks
3. still will see a lot of selling in the next lets say 2 months
4. things will get better at the latest when we get news in December, maybe before
what I am doing: I m invested here, waiting waiting waiting. If ever (!) the stock goes down to lets say 300 I will buy once again and get "all in". If it holds more or less between 330 and 400, no reason for me to change anything.
Just dont say you were not informed before, thats why I posted this here. Everyone knows the deadlines for the lockups and even more everyone knows the % of stocks currently already sold by banks.
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