Member Info for miles44

btw: thats the reason this guy here bought HBR (again) 2 weeks ago:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMNlSszYEoE
watch starting minute 56:20

Gas prices are hedged for around 80% in 2022 and 2023, counting current production. Whats is not counted in these 80% though is Tolmount. Once Tolmount goes online (end of this year, beginning of next) its production can be sold 100% unhedged. Will the company hedge Tolmount production as well? I dont think so as there is simply no need to hedge more than 80% (or with Tolmount - 70%) of gas production. So with Tolmount we might have a nice leverage play for HBR´s balance sheet.

no opinion if and how they decide on Sea Lion. Management will do whats best for the company. My opinion: maybe too soon to start it next year. Management could decide to stablize as a merged entity first, get debt down and profit from nice cash flow for at least 2022. And as for 2023 no need to decide anything yet.

small divi in spring is 99% certain. And with 2022 cash flow divis will be lifted to sector level end of 2022.

but I dont consider it important. What is important are the future plans for capital allocation for HBR (reducing debt vs growth capex in Sea Lion or else) and around 65% or share lockups ending in October.

true.
HBR is undervalued. NAV was estimated by HBR broker Jefferies in April to be at around 5 GBP/share. So we´re right now valued at around 72% of book value which is very low. Average for the O&G sector is 1.5 and even accounting for british O&G shares still being priced lower than their US peers, HBR has a good upside potential, once creditors are done selling, numbers are out in 3 weeks and more free float will kick in in October. Right now its still a waiting game though. All major upside in the stock price will be sold and I dont expect much upside until numbers are out.

no divi this year. First divi will be payed in spring 22. And its not gonna be high. Priority is on reducing debt/getting the balance sheet cleaned up

@Cigam as always I agree and would like to add that end of June (last presentation as of 23r of June) already 19mmboe of oil and 25 mmboe of gas were hedged for 2022. My guess (and one could see it from the difference of the presentations from April to June) is that management has hedged what they wanted to hedge (around 80% of gas without counting Tolmount and about 65% of oil) for 2022 (and gas already for 2023 as well) and are right now hedging oil for 2023 and gas for 2024.

So yes, agreed: management is conservative and thats all cool with me. Leaving 20% unhedged still gives you a nice upside potential and doesnt risk anything if things go the wrong way.

2bn USD FCF for 2020 is way too much imo. Divi of 500m should also be considered too high as management has announced that they d pay a dividend for the full year (in March/April), but that they d be cautious for their first dividend and be sure that the dividend will be sustainable. Which I think is perfectly ok - debt has to be reduced first. Dont get yourself taken away by euphoria after 2 days of gains :) What should count is the long-term profitability of the company, good jobs for oilers and us investors should support the company´s good management.

Harbour management obviously also thinks 6 GBP is available, as just under 6 GBP currently is the necessary market value to enter the FTSE 100 and HBR management already announced in April that entering it could be possible by year end 2021 or beginning of 2022 https://www.upstreamonline.com/finance/knocking-on-ftse-100-door-heavyweight-oil-and-gas-indie-harbour-energy-debuts-on-london-market/2-1-990493

Management is neither naive nor lunatic. They know the value of the company a lot better than we all together

or better just go to the Harbour reddit forum :)

yes and I ll also write what I wrote again:
if you guys dont want to get involved with people posting unqualified content, better switch to the harbour energy reddit forum. I posted a comment called "Harbour Energy - why I am invested" there which sums things up.

Thanks guys. Posted this article as well to some friends of mine. Guess one of them, a friend of mine (Rudi Bester - https://www.youtube.com/user/rudibestnj ) might make a podcast some time in September or so, probably after the numbers. Would be nice to get the US investors activated on the stock.

I also sent the file to HBR IR today just for their info plus 2 questions.

Waiting for an answer, but no hurry at all with this. HBR is a waiting game anyway.

But good to see that the article is somewhere on this forum apparently....

I posted an - as I think - interesting personal view on HBR on reddit. And after just 2 minutes cannot read it anymore. I am new to reddit, dont know if it is "hidden" somewhere now? Asked the moderator (who as far as I know is active here as well) and havent gotten an answer (yet). I think my article was/is quite interesting and fits to the chat rules... so I wonder what went wrong/what I did wrong ... (?)

thanks for the link @NoFear

@Soder thanks for the link. Good post!

why are some of you even being bothered by these guys? Take it with a smile guys :) The world is full of idiots and if everytime you get annoyed, you wont live very long ;) so put the ignore-button if it helps you of course .. or just see them as part of our partially dumb society :)

after a day like this the interesting part is: who bought at the bottom or just played things cool holding the stock (winners) and who lost his nerves and SOLD at the bottom (losers)

Days like this are made to shake out the weak hands.

at least some guys here offering value with their posts

thanks

one should bear in mind that HBR revenues are around 50% from natgas. Which is on a contiuous uptrend. Its an "oil company", but in fact its an oil & gas company of course. With Tulmount now producing (gas) the % of natgas got even a little higher, so maybe 53% natgas now ...

@NoFear - nearly all chats have one or two clowns, who want to get attention. And the best way for them is to annoy people. Best thing to do is to either "put them on ignore" technically or just ignore them anyway. This forum does have some guys posting good value - you are one of them - so us value investors better stick together, share our information and once the share price goes up, these funny guys normally are gone. Happened to me a few times before already. Other alternative would be to just take a week without this share chat ... main outcome has to be not to get annoyed :)