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the bond being sold is definitely good news. Moody´s has announced that they will upgrade the company rating to B3 as well, once the bond is sold (the bond itself is already rated at B3).
@Supercooper and I guess everyone is right that with oil prices over 60 USD Tullow will have enough free cash flow to bringt debt down to 1 bn in 2025 as the CEO has announced. And - also to quote Rahul - with an oil price higher than that, deleveraging will be significantly faster.

Everyone invested here long term is very probably counting on oil prices going to 80 USD this year. With the certainty in the market that short term liquidity isnt an issue any more, Tullow will be repriced sooner or later and will see the same price upgrade as other oil producers having lots, but managable debt with positive free cash.

Tullow was in a terrible situation a year ago when Rahul started. Tullow was in a difficult situation even a month ago. With the debt managed, Tullow is in a very promising situation.

And Rahul plus management will have kept their word not to ask shareholders to help with the financing. We re not diluted and the debt will be payed back substantially in the next months and years.

Good news therefore in case @JJ.. s information is confirmed...

with an interview

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgHNUmYDpdA

good post @Ranjm - would like to read more from you

fortune favours the bold - Rahul and Tullow Management couldnt have done things better with the bond offer. Just at the moment when the bond is very probably bought and pricing has set in, oil crosses the 70 USD benchmark, rising 2,8% just today.

Expect a LOT of demand for this bond with funds bidding down the price.

I repeat myself: with a little luck (and we seem to have it) this bond is not only bought 100% (dont see any problem here), but bidden down to 6%, getting rid of the RBL AND saving money for Tullow.

In hindsight we ll look back and say: management got it a 1000% right :)

And we ll all smile thinking of the great development of the company and the share price :)

back up at 0.65? you re too modest :) it ll open at 0.75 once the closing of the bond will be announced. Just account for all the % we "lost" compared to other companies in the last days with some people having sold their stocks to the shorters. Obviously these "old fashioned" tactics of planting fear in the mind of unexperienced retail investors worked with some people ...

This "happy" guy is really the clown of this forum.

we ll soon never again see oil prices under 70 USD and in summer hit 80 USD. Tullow will make a LOAD of cash and reduce debt to 1 bn sooner than many think.

Clown - sit down and give us a definition of "unsustainable" and think about how it correlates with positive free cash flow haha :)

unemployed loser ...

@jj.. to comment on your pricing post: with the kind of bond offering ("best endeavours" accepted) it s clear that right now with the offering in the market just a few days, pricing is still high.
Chance for TLW is that once the bond gets fully signed there will be a bidding to the downside with the best offers winning.

Of course we ll have to just see - but the best endeavours pricing could turn out to be a clever idea.

well yes and no. The jump in the bond price is a good sign. Thats for sure. The markets are expecting oil to go even higher and are looking for a hedged oil company that pays significant interests. My friend mentioned it positively 3 times during our call that "they are hedged at 55". I told him that they re hedged for 2022 at 15% right now and planning to hedge further and he said that "with the oil price at current prices, no problem at all to hedge for 2022".
I specifically asked him if one couldnt see how the bond selling s going on just looking at the 2022 bond price, but he commented: "even we bond buyers dont really know how how it sells. Maybe as I said the broker may make some comments about the current demand, but thats not sure and there s no possibility to really measure how demand is".

But again, he said that the whole action is "very clever" and will probably bring interest expenses down for the company as interests are low and demand is very high for commodity company bonds (I repeat myself).

Ah one more thing: my friend also shared my view that the bank lending of 600 millions for the 2021 convertible etc. shows that there s high confidence that the bond gets sold at a good price. Otherwise there would have been no lending of 600 M.

My guess is: Tullow will not only sell the bond, but save a lot of money on interests in the next years. And investors will be smiling at prices around 0.70 or higher end of next week.

ah and he said that normally it takes around 2 weeks to sell a bond, so I personally dont think that this week we ll see some news on it - if it sells fine with oil prices on the run maybe ... but probably by end of next week we ll know.

If you look at the share price chart it looks like its waiting for a break-out to 0.65 and more ... that would correspond well with a positive announcement by next week e. g.

I spoke about things with a friend of mine who buys bonds for a major insurance company. We talked quite some time, so here´s what he said:
1. Question is not so much IF the bond is bought. He said with the current IMMENSE demand for bonds in commodity companies, with Tullow having hedged 75% of 2020 production, having a positive cash flow now and with an upgrade to B3 its about certain. He asked what the expectations of the company for the pricing would be and I told him that they wanna pay about the same interests as right now, so around 6 1/2 %. He said thats quite a nice offer in these times of low interests. As for you guys here asking if the bond gets sold well, he told me, that no-one really can find out. "A company interested can call the broker and he might make some hints on who things are going, the call will of course be recorded".
I told him that the price of the 2022 has gone up with the announcement and he commented "that signals that the spread is low" and that thats a good sign.
I told him about an anonymous company posting negative bs on seekingalpha, which has never posted before, he laughed and said, well thats someone trying to sell his shorts.
As for the size of the offering he said that thats a significant amount, but that the decision of the company to do the offering right now was "very clever" as interests are very low now, demand for commodity bonds is very high as bondholders want to diversify their portfolios and buy those commodity company bonds. He said "there is now a race for diversification in the bond market" and that commodity companies are very interesting, especially with Goldman Sachs seeing oil at 80 USD now.
Putting it all together, he said that in his view there should be no problem getting the necessary money at all. Just a matter of pricing.

the one thing that is apparent is that there s a company paying someone to post bearish articles on seekingalpha about Tullow. That has historically always be the best sign ever for the last chance to get in at cheap value. Shorters normally do not try to convince retail investors to sell their stocks - if it is not that they know something that makes them wanna buy all outstanding stocks and they wanna convince some retailers to sell their stocks.... which is happening exactly right now.

Remark the latest article of this company (not an individual of course) has been posted on seekingalpha just this weekend - convenient for every retail investor to read ...

So to answer your question: I dont have contact with anyone in the bond market - but the writing is on the wall for a huge success and higher prices with a certain company (bank or hedge fund) trying to fight Tullows bond sale and trying to buy back their short positions.

@lemming99 just read your post: very good analysis.

Thx @Soder
I luckily 7folded my investment in Tullow just yesterday afternoon - nice day today for me. Thinking about putting some more (small) money in Harbour.. but quite dissapointing to see the share price lately with oil up so much... so maybe too early to invest here... what does this forum think about it? Good time to buy now? Sorry to be such a newbie, but one always starts at some point with a new company.

Just a question to all of you guys as a new investor in here: does HBR have a current credit rating and if yes could you specify? Thanks :)

@Cantona same to you - just tripled my shareholding yesterday = sometimes you just gotta be lucky :) Have a very good opinion of the CEO. Also think its great they re restarting drilling again on a multiyear time-horizon. New management does, what the old management failed to do. Very forward-looking plus his salary is normal, but not overpayed, so I guess we re seeing good times again here and apparently banks and bondholders see it the same way as you only offer a 600 million revolver if you trust in the company and mangement.

And once again: great thing they kept their word and didnt dilute shares.

@bailiff please keep us updated ;)))

@Supercooper haha I HOPE for this guy that at least someone pays him for his posts :D Would be better for him to be a hired gun than a dumb shorter accumulating losses on the way up :)

Btw... let face the positive fact that a great british company is on its way back to FTSE 100. This here is not just a game, its about jobs, taxes etc etc - shorters sometimes lack the fact that when they´re wrong, its good news for hundreds of people working for and with that company. Just to add ... bondholders and shareholders are doing a good job: not only for themselves.

Autosuggestion is a huge force. The company just got 600 Million of cash on hand to settle the 2020 maturity and some strange people try to convince themselves (or others) that this is bad news? haha :D as for the rest of the credit: it is an offering, so of course it is not all sold yet. Quite logic. Will they be able to sell it? Just look at current bond prices plus rising oil prices and you quickly have the answer.

But yes, we ll see markets have their view on it soon. Just really funny that shorters try to sell GREAT news as bad news haha :D

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415819-tullow-oil-melting-ice-cube#comments

it must hurt to be shorting a company with such a good management .... haha :D plus with rising brent oil prices now at 67 USD I would PANIC if I d be one of the shorters haha :D

also good news is management has kept its word. They lately announced at the Q&A that their debt resctructuring plan would NOT imply raising share capital. So here we are: no new shares - best possible outcome for current shareholders: no dilution and a CEO that does what he says.