Member Info for miles44

As we are in the last week of the 6 month lockup period (ending Thursday after the close) with selling pressure from creditors plus the first day of around 45% of shares free to be sold on the markets, I was expecting much selling pressure. And I still think we might see some major moves to the downside in this or the following weeks - OR NOT?
Truth is yes, we see elevated volume relative to the last months... but - so far - no real "sell-off".
Solution? Well it might be that the worst is yet to come. It might also be that selling pressure is still here, but more and more funds and investors are getting in and buy the stock at these prices, therefore the higher volumes.

My personal feeling (and it isnt more than this) is that with the potential free-float rising in October, there will be more funds/bigger investors interested in investing. And there will also be some shareholders under lockdown ready to sell.

So in the short term - besides any M&A news always possible with HBR but not probable in the near-term - my best guess is that the share price will become quite volatile in Ocotober. And I dont necessarily mean that it ll go down. But swings in the share price might become elevated, as selling and buying pressure might not be perfectly timed by some institutions ready to sell/buy. We might see days with a relevant over-demand and over-bidding ...

So for all long-holders: brace for volatility. I know we re bracing for 2 weeks already ... but stormy season s not over yet. ...

@PositiveThinker HBR was and is a waiting game.

@briansy sorry for you man - you sold before the rise :/

@epiphany121 and @NoFear I ve been in contact with Harbour Investor Relations several times now. I ve already owned some other oil stocks, e. g. bought Ovintiv April 2020 at 2.2 USD and saw that there management was highly overpayed plus their IR answered to one of my emails and once I started asking something critical (very politely) I never got an answer from them anymore. Thats (!) what I call a non-transparent company. With Harbour it is exactly the contrary. I even got a call from them once after having sent them an email, so sorry @NoFear (once again - dont really like to contradict you twice a day ;) - HBR is not a secretive company and - considering the fact that we are all "unimportant" private investors - very nice, professional, friendly and cool in their IR. I really recommend you all to just write to IR - you ll see what I mean. Also - as @epiphany121 mentioned - Linda and Phil are very transparent - of course always looking for what you really CAN already say about the future. We dont want them to tell the world about the details of any talks with other companies or chat publicly about company secrets as that would of course be damaging Harbour and therefore us as shareholders. All you want is management to do good work, not sink money into projects like Sea Lion, keep a stable balance sheet and you all should remember that Phil and Linda are holding substantial shares in the company with their private money. Substantial (!) shareholdings. Thats always a good thing as they themselves have an interest in making HBR a success story - also for us shareholders :)

@NoFear with all respect: HBR management was asked during the Q&A if the stop of Sea Lion would cost the company. Linda answered that it’s not yet clear if they d get sth for their stake ir would have to pay indemities, but that it would be more or less negligable = +/- 10 Million GBP.

So HBR will not make a huge sum of money leaving the project.

All cool if you like the company. I m long here as well as you know. But no need to pump :)

@buzzthomas - poor hedging: true. Nothing exciting on the horizon.... Tolmount probably coming online adding lots of unhedged production... not exciting? :)
Plus with 2022 production only around 53% hedged as stated here several times already...
Plus current share prices beaten down

So dont take me wrong: you re right with your hedges... but compared to a lot of other producers I find the perspectives exciting enough :)

exactly, @laidback
I personally liked the last posts of @epiphany121 a lot. He´s shown with his other investments that he´s spot on with energy investments and has decided to enter Harbour at current prices. He also said and I think the same that short term - maybe till end of October (?) we might see prices going down even further with the huge stock overhang flowing into the market.
But definitely in 6 months or a year many will think back and regret not having bought (more) shares when it was "summer sale 2021" :)

@epiphany121 Thank you VERY much for your answer, for taking the time and also for your comparisons with other companies you own. That helped.
I agree that PBV is only one of many factors and at this point of time it might not be the best factor as - as you mention - higher oil & gas prices for longer might result in them writing back impairments.
What is good is the price to FCF ratio is around 4.2 which is good value (compared to around 7.2 for BP e.g.) plus FCF will rise in 2022.
I do agree with your opinion on management: every time I listen to Linda and Phil I have a very good impression of them being aware of good business opportunities. Plus they are aware of ESG and have a reasonable approach for it (Acorn/V Net Zero), but do not have any thought about rushing into alternative energies as that market isnt profitable anymore, but to buy cheap o&g assets/companies. Buy cheap and sell the oil and gas for a nice profit is what I definitely like.

You said you bought more shares in the last days... I did average down in July, being at 360p average, waiting for things to come now

Once again thanks for your informative answer

@epiphany121 I agree that without hedges the company would already have a much better standing, but those were the conditions of the banks for the merger... what is good though is that for 2022 etc they are planning with the mininum % of hedges they re obliged to have so ... the upside mentioned by many here definitely exists.

As for the book value... so as @shal1000 tells me 0,5 is correct and we agree that IF you calcute with equity it is 2.5 and if you calculate with oil&gas value in the books its 0,5 the question remaining is.... which number does one normally take for the PBV calculation ?

@shal1000 HBR said in April that they d probably pay a divi, but that it d be a cautious one. As for right now Linda stated that they are having lots of conversations with other companies for either doing M&A or buying some of their assets. Guess this plus the uncertainty around Tolmount are the main reasons to 1. not yet give an outlook for 2022 and 2. not yet to announce a dividend. Makes perfect sense that they now have their Capital Markets Day in December instead of spring as in December the company will know about Tolmount and probably have another deal to announce. My personal guessing would be that they will not totally skip the dividend as private equity loves regular dividends ... probably they ll pay 10p/share or so and announce that they might pay another (higher) half year dividend once everything has settled well mid 2022... just a guess though of course..

Good morning
One question to the forum about current net book value... ycharts, simplywall.st, reuters are now all showing a price to book value of around 2.4 /2.5 - simplywall.st calculating with 1.88 USD of book value per share.
Looking at the recent presentation of HBR page 38 they sort out a net book value of 8,039 bn USD. With current market valuation that would be a price book value of around 0.55

Any comment on this? @Soder has already stated that I am terrible in maths, so I probably got that wrong again...

its all about trust.
Trust in your own fundamental analysis
But most of all: trust in Linda, Phil, Alex... if you trust them to do a good job (and they have so far).. then there´s no problem.
If you don´t: you better never had bought the stock anyway.

yes @Luckcounts there is no doubt about that clear and transparent analysis. HBR has stated that in 2022 they are legally bound to hedge at least 50% and as they havent upped their hedges between the last presentation in August and yesterday, I just guess they ll leave hedges for 2022 where they are. Means: huge upside indeed. Plus oil and gas in a steady uptrend plus my guess is oil follows gas with a 6-8 months delay as there is not enough development in the industry and the only difference between gas and oil is that oil had the huge worldwide storage that had to be sold. As that is now done ... we might see 85, maybe even 100 USD/b this long winter and markets are only starting to realize that even companies like HBR going away from projects like Sea Lion means that oil prices will stay up for years to come

https://allevents.in/edinburgh/phil-kirk-chief-executive-officer-harbour-energy/10000176175424437?ref=footer-up-ep-upcoming

just not very clear if its 21 or 31 of October tbh :)

its all very simple: around 7% = 65 Million (!) shares are still held by bankers and some (will) use the last days in September to sell before the end of the lockup period for 45% of shareholders kicks in next Friday. Prices are made by sellers and buyers and not by fundamentals. Suffices to look at certain Nasdaq darlings to realize it.

But to repeat this again as well: selling pressure will at some point wane... just dont ask me when... was is a good idea to burden 18% of all shares to be sold in the public market since April ? ... well ... most of us bought the stock at these low prices - my average is 360 e.g. ... so indeed its a waiting game here.

I guess it d be quite inconsequent to profit from these low prices in July August and then complain about prices not getting up enough and fast enough in September :)

Current market price is made with only around 10% of shares traded... current daily volume is only 1-3 M shares ... so the share price is really quite irrelevant for those with a little financial breath. The company makes a profit, profit will rise in H2 and I guess we all concur that the company is cheap. And we know the reason for the current undervaluation: selling pressure. So nothing else to add here I guess...

Lets sit this out

Hi @Jefff :) it was mentioned in the webcast that "more than half" of the 18% of creditors shares have now been sold. So I just estimated that 10% (a little more than half) has been sold = 8% still being held. Maybe banks hold less, like 7% or so... but it doesnt make a real difference. "More than half" means that there is still a substantial number of shares held by them and we ll have to sit and wait until they sold what they want to sell.

Cheers :)

good thing we for once discuss these things here. Some people seem to have problems with someone else here and I partly understand it. I ve been in several forums and my experience is that once the share price goes up and everyone is making profits, its easy to be polite. And when the share price goes down or stays down, some people forget that its precisely in the difficult times that - even though anonymous - people should be kind to each other. So lets maybe all try to 1. be polite and 2. if someone loses his nerves ... maybe just to stand back and not take it that personal. Have a good evening guys

oil majors are reluctant at the moment and medium producers like HBR have a huge choice of fields sold by these oil majors running away/divesting from oil. Linda is right: why develop green field projects if you can buy producing fields for bargain prices. But HBR - and probably no-one else - right now developing Sea Lion also shows one thing: we re heading straight into an energy crisis in 5 to 10 years from today. Natgas prices already got up due to a lack of development and exploration and oil majors shying away from their "duty" to develop large oil and gas fields these days will lift oil & gas prices even higher. They have to rise to a level where the urgency and need for oil and gas gets that high that ... well ... exploration starts again

finally someone saying sth nice to @NoFear. @January2 - my respects.

@NoFear dont let some guys here bring you down. Banks have to sell their 8% of remaining shares and we ll have to sit and wait till its done. No matter if there are more buy or sell orders.

But its also a question of politeness and style to be friendly to everyone here. Most of us are here to learn and exchange infos.

So @NoFear - welcome back soon hopefully

yes, a buying opportunity. The last? Lets see. Manipulation? Not really, its these 8% outstanding shares from banks/creditors still up for selling in the last days of the lockup period.