Member Info for miles44

Brent is over 70 now and HBR - with less debt and higher oil and gas prices - is lower. If one understands that "price" is the messaging of opinions about value and investment only works, when this messaging is wrong (for whatever reason)...then you know what to do and what not to do.

.... plus an oil&gas company is - in comparison with many complicated companies - quite easy to understand actually.

will drop to Brent 70 probably but so what :)

it might go down to its low November level now ... or not ... but as a matter of fact, everyone with weak hands (for whatever reason) is kicked out now

down it goes again..

some here definitely either look at the share price too often or have bought with too much leverage. Whats the deeper sense of whining and crying about the fact that some sellers decided to sell the stock for an even lower price than 5 days before when at the same time those who bought the shares should know or at least have a certain idea of the company and its future. Ask yourself: do you change your view about a good person or friend just because some guys come along and call him an idiot? Or would you consider yourself whining and crying like a girl because they said nasty things about your friend? I guess you would react different... ignoring these guys or giving them a good punch in their face. But you wouldn let down your friend or cry. So guys: act like men. If you cant afford a temporary loss: sell and go. And if you can: have a good drink and laugh about the idiots selling. And dont listen to or even argue with certain pussies in this chat. In real life you wouldnt even look at these degenerated.

IMHO :D

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-sees-oil-price-spiking-uaeopec-deal

@PaddyGoLucky What is interesting is that about all shale oil producers in the US have two things in common: 1. they are still undervalued 2. but they have all risen in price. So my take would be that british oil&gas stocks are ignored by US investors, they keep investing in the US. And many international and british institutional investors - as you mention correctly I guess - are not willing to invest in ESG problematic investments.

As one can see with coal producers in the US though (which were and are a "no go" investment for most ESG-aware investors), once higher product prices continuously lead to a (visibly) better situation for the companies, money flows in anyway and share prices rise.

It is not as easy as it was years ago and even though much of the undervaluation will be positively dealt with by willing buyers in the future, the oil&gas as well as the coal industry will maybe have to live with lower P/E or P/FCF multiples in the next years. On the other hand it wouldnt be the first time to see an unloved sector become "fashionable" again: just look at what happened after the 2000 dotcom bubble: tech got out of favour and people were searching for "real value". So presuming that oil&gas will be able to pay stable dividends of 3-5% in the next years, run down debt and present good profits, even funds and institutions might rethink their view...

patience wins with british oil imo

all guys not being content with HBR, just look at the following podcast at minute 48:24 : the total average of british oil and gas stocks are flat since beginng of 2021. Brent has shot up during that time, but british oil companies have done nothing at all. So its not at all only HBR, it is british oil stocks that are not bought despite Shell paying a higher dividend and oil prices of course positive for all oil companies worldwide. I recommend that weekly podcast btw:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWjGAblmw9U

@Kayel exactly. good statement

starting your friday whining? either own the stock or go cry somewhere else

@Pearls with leverage at stock markets at all-time highs its always a good feeling to really own your stocks

@Harrycash I bought most of my stocks after the 1:20 reverse split and the rest of them just before the split, so at current prices I am actually at around break even . And you of course havent offended me: neither with your last post nor by calling me a casino gambler etc. Have fun.

You havent offended me, I just thought it worth a notice that sometimes people have opinions and share them even though their results (loss-making) speak against them. We all make losses, but what I think is interesting is that people repeat their mistakes and are allergic against criticism. You call me a "casino gambler" and dont know just anything about me. Nice of you that you already have made your judgment about me. Typical for someone intelligent I would say. Just go on.

@Harrycash - I dont normally comment here , but just wanted to tell you sth. We all make good and bad investments and if we can learn sth from bad investments it should be to not blame others, but to be a little modest and ready to learn from our own mistakes. Good example: I bought Ovintiv (OVV) in January and sold them (luckily) just before the crash. I bought them again at 2.50 USD and held them until 10.50. All the way up bagholders were arguing that management was dumb and that the company (and oil) would be doomed to fail. They were first of all (of course) angry about having lost 95% of their investment, not seeing that the company was priced at 7% book value and could only go up. As for me I sold too early and since then havent bought in again as the regret of having sold to early kinda stops me from doing the right thing. As for you... well, you say you are bagholding and for some reason you neither sell nor do you buy some more stocks to average down. You missed to sell when it was time to sell and now you miss the time to buy some more and tell yourself that the stock is not cheap - and at the same time you still hold it. Thats a losers mentality and dont get me wrong: I sometimes do have that mentality as well. Its just that our own mind sometimes tricks us into making wrong decisions. Just to add: a normal consequence of your thinking would be to 1) not average down as you lost that much that now you distrust your own investment 2) hold what you have until it goes up to lets say 5 or 6 and then sell and 3) still watch it going up more, but not buy in again (just like me with OVV). You after all you will have left your investment with a huge loss and regrets...

why do I post that comment: be more humble and modest and dont think you are right. Try to imagine that the guys within Chrysaor holding millions and millions of private money could be better investors then you

@Nofear thanks for sharing the link

that article about future crude prices was just published. Would be great to have your views :

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/brace-shock-gas-pump-wti-surges-above-75-opec-raises-output-less-expected

thank god I bought 80% of my shares Tuesday and Wednesday when some posters here were lamenting about things going so bad (where are they now btw?) ;)

just calculated it with numbers I got from barchart.com
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/HBRIY
calculating with 364 pence as the last price friday HRB should have a PBV of around 0.42

compared to other oil stocks that should be cheap.

Anyone in here who knows the actual price book value (pbv) of Harbour?

as far as I understand it, there s a chance of some further production to come on this year, but I agree with you that its more realistic to factor in any materially positive impact only for 2022.
The Tullow story reminds me of my investment in Sibanye 2018. There were many and huge problems. Financial problems, production problems, unexpected problems (mine accident, strike) and most investors were worrying and worrying while the share price (with some huge fluctuations) was going up all these years and has 6folded. I got to know management in 2018 personally and just knew: there s of course always a risk - but that management is just doing a great (!) job. Same here: there are huge and lots of problems and management is solving these problems one after the other. Long (!) term development of a company first of all depends on the fact of having either a compentent management - or not. With incompetent or negligent guys you can be lucky and profit from the underlying materials price - or not.
I m in here first of all because I guess Rahul will get things done. I havent met him so far, so no personal connection. But I like that 1. He earns a adequate salary, not like so many others in oil 2. He owns around 800.000 USD of shares - always good for shareholders to know the CEO "feels the same way" and 3. he s transparent with private shareholders and kept his word so far (no dilution e. g.).

Whats your view on the valuation of the company? My personal view is that Tullow is still hard to evaluate actually. But shorters should leave this stock in the next weeks with part of the uncertainty gone so some upside in the short term plus probably more upside once we see some financial stats (e. g. book value) go up again

The thing I wanted to point out (not at all commenting on you, but just a general statement) is that it is of no use to worry all the way up ... it just makes you sell the stock too early. Either this CEO is doing a good job or not: thats the main question.

@jj.. so what are your projections for Tullow ... lets say this year and the next? Guessing you re seeing the oil price go to 80 this year as well (?)