Member Info for miles44

@speedygon yes, that guy´s video I posted is just too cool haha :) Proud to be his folloer number 4 :D
@ Boyobach: as for the longer term chart you posted: if you take the chart of lets say SLB (Schlumberger) and you put it over the chart of PFC you ll see that over the years they made the same movement. JUST till this year. SLB this year is up already and PFC partly participated in that upswing but with the sell-off it lags behind a LOT now. To catch up to SLB, the stock would have to grow to 500 ...

so what does that tell us: crisis of confidence due to SFO (special to PFC) and shrinking order book (same for the whole OFS industry). Both reasons have not changed since Fitch´s last commentary on PFC:
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/petrofac-faces-mounting-pressure-on-new-orders-from-coronavirus-10-09-2020
Yes, the order book has come down a little more (see the latest update of PFC from December) but not that much. And yes, the SFO has charged that guy a little more. But as Fitch commented: "Petrofac's active management of the balance sheet and capital structure over recent years has placed it in a good position to face the current challenges."

So as for me.... of course there s always a possibility of things getting even worse for the company - but if one compares the downside risk and the upside potential... well....

So lets see how things play out here - In Februar 2019 (last SFO shock) it also lost about 33% and then ecovered 50% of its losses in 1 month and 100 % of its losses in 2 months, with rising oil prices...

My personal guess is that oil prices will come down a little in the next weeks due to a stronger dollar, thats why I sold PFC at 170 (yes that was also luck). But I now bought back in at an average of 124.

As that cool Harry on the video @speedygon reposted said: you can make HUGE profits with PFC if you buy them at the right time ... lets see if we see 105 the next days... and if so: so what. I wont sell until .... well I dont know... but its all clear that we ll see oil prices rising with demand coming back in spring and with Biden already planning anti oil:
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/buffett-wins-biden-set-cancel-keystone-pipeline-permit-first-day-office
and probably either making life for shale producers expensive or even forbid fracking totally..

Remark: PFC has under 1% of its business in the US - I got that in written from PFC. And that ll be an important factor in the weeks and months to come.

@Pokerchips: its all still based on european law, there s a reglementation in insider trading and also one on short trading. These european regulations were implemented in british law at the time and since Brexit havent changed a lot. The only thing that ll change is that the minimum amount of short positioning requiring you to disclose will be lowered from 0.2% to 0.1% starting February.
Practically this means that e. g. Blackrock would have to report what they do today until 3.30pm tomorrow and then this info is published immediately. Thats why some internet pages publish it faster than others. Means at around 4pm tomorrow we ll know what Blackrock did today, of the other shorters...

Insider period right now should be 1 month. I looked it up and also asked someone, so ... if management wants to buy, they can still go for it I guess

@Ironhide, got that from a german page, funny they re so fast, but reports have to be submitted until 3.30 pm the next trading day, so it makes sense:

http://www.aktiencheck.de/exklusiv/Artikel-Petrofac_Leerverkaeufer_Rye_Bay_Capital_attackiert_weiterhin_Aktiennews-12460528

Its all in German unfortunately, but the numbers should be clear

to be clear:
CapeView sold stocks and upped its short position from 0,93% to 1,08%
Rye Bay Capital also sold stocks Friday and upped its short position from 2,37% to 2,74%.

new shorts:
2,74% Rye Bay Capital LLP (15.01.2021)
1,08% CapeView Capital (15.01.2021)

means, these two hedge funds effectively SOLD on Friday and Blackrock hasnt done anything.

As for any insider trades, we ll have to wait, as
- management CAN buy right now, numbers will be out February 24th so management is allowed to buy until 24th of January.
- theres a maximum of 3 working days delay for the company to disclose insider trades, so lets see - we ll know by the end of the week if management bought something

will also be interesting to follow the further development of hedge fund trades

what we know now is that Friday was a shorters attack plus of course many people selling for many reasons...

But take care that it shows BATS Europe

Try this:

https://m.investing.com/equities/petrofac-ld?cid=32883

@laidback: no problem: you just go on investing.com, type Petrofac, watch the chart and then you change the stock exchange to let them show you the BATS Europe exchange. There you can see price movement upwards plus the huge volume (huge is of course relative, but 1,8 million shares for after hours is substantial)

Hope I could help :)

@sct74red well, if you rethink it... I mean why would they come out with the new charges only now, 1 month before his court sentence... with him admitting them ... indeed means they knew about these facts for some time already, probably since his first confession in 2019 - and were for some reason waiting with the publication... so what you think could be true and would be totally legal: to offer him to drop part of the charges (2 out of 13) if any more useful information can be gathered from him - and if not (for whatever reason, either there simply is no information or as you said he is not talking) he s now charged "extra"...

so its all just speculation of course - but there could be a grain of truth in it - or it could actually be exactly what happened ... lets see ...

I personally think the new CEO wouldnt have accepted the job knowing there s a major problem within the company. You dont continue a career coming from Royal Dutch Shell without informing yourself and knowing that things are difficult but managable.

PFC after hours at BATS Europe closed at 132.13 with huge volume of around 1.8 million shares traded in the 2 hours after LSE closing and an after hours high at 152 - same upward movenemt in OTC markets in Euro denominated markets...

wouldnt be surprised to see it trading at around 150 on Monday

most interesting for me will not be the share price though, but to see how shorters acted yesterday (if already announced) - I ll watch that the whole next week. Same for possible insider buying and the amount of shares eventually bought: also interesting to watch if management puts private money in the company at these prices

@george123 no I dont - I m his 4th follower :) I looked at his profile and he has only posted around 6 videos so far so ... but hey: everyone s a beginner at some point and I liked his way of presenting things so ... we re both following him now I guess :)

Saw the video of that guy from today: cool accent - and what he s presenting is the easy (but good) way to trade PFC

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMG4pcay6Ec

I liked it when he says "you gotta be veeery veeery lucky to get the bottom price" haha so I m drinking my wine now it makes me smile :) Happy weekend to you all guys :)

Today it looks to me as if things are finally advancing. So after all, this might - in hindsight - be a good day for everyone: for justice, but also for PFC. Markets hate uncertainty as we saw today - so hopefully things will be clarified now, people who did sth wrong should be punished and the company with its many hard-working employees should be given a chance to return to profitabilty.

well, these mutual decisions dont mean that much and they didnt buy that much either. But management might have (today) or will (Monday) buy shares. Lets see.. I m not the only one in here thinking it would be a good sign. Just symbolic... but putting your money where you work also counts... especially when it comes to such a "trust" issue that we see today

well thats also the reason why Blackrock probably decided not to buy only a small portion of shares showing to everyone of us that now is the time to buy - but does that today, buying huge chunks of stocks and betting on the "sheep" out in the market to panic or see their stop loss falling.
No-one ever said that it ll be easy to have Blackrock as a shorter - they are experts and know their business, including hiding their positions so you cannot see "anything special" following the stock trades. They dont invest in algo trading programmes for nothing ;)

@PYUECK what you write is true - but your post would have been also true in 2017, when things came out. Since then PFC´s business has suffered, but they still (before covid) managed to make a profit. The company´s order book has been reduced lately, but due to the crisis in the oil industry. As Fitch Rating wrote in their last update in September, it remains to be seen if the company will have difficulties winning new tenders. That was true before and is still true. With rising oil prices, the coming shortages of production due to a lack of investment though, I guess many oil companies might just take the cheapest offer they can get. So: everyone of course gets why its falling - but its also true that its no real news - and no news that justifies another big sell-off after the one the company had in 2017 - imho :)

I guess everyone has positioned himself today.... including the funds - so lets just have a good weekend and see what the next working days tell us... My guess: further reductions of hedge fund short positions and management buying shares.

dont be surprised to see management buying stocks today - think of this post when you see it on Monday or Tuesday...

also just bought some more at 120 - was too nice of a price

haha yes, the article was written by "Rupert Hargreaves" - a "freelance journalist" and the company owner of "Hargreaves Writing Ltd" - so here you go ...

hon y soit qui mal y pense

a good sign is that now as the "damage" for many investors is done, there s an article published recommending to SELL the share haha :) It reminds me a lot of other stocks I bought that were heavily shorted. The shorter knows about an upcoming event, shorts the stock and once its out sells as hell - then as he wants to buy back cheap, he needs others to still keep selling at the rock-bottom prices, especially naive retail investors and therefore suddenly there are articles in the main press that NOW is the right time to sell. Funny that guy apparently telling us that he/she is "concerned about the future of the company" is telling this now and hasnt published that article say 2 days ago haha :) So follow that person and sell your stocks to Blackrock ;)

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2021/01/15/why-the-petrofac-share-price-plunged-33-today/