Member Info for Mehmet66

Overall think good news for the sector and getting Indonesian islands out of their diesel. Tocardo largest turbine is same size as the SAE test turbine sent to Japan. Also Hydrowing ownership of its own vessel is a substantial thing in the business model, meaning the company just represents something slightly different to SAE in what it offers. They've also done SAE installs before , I think reason to believe there's room for everyone to grow.

Feel there's a lack of political awareness going on in a lot of all this. As was pointed out I think Scottish support of tidal is a good idea and is going to grow. There is also lack of awareness, in blaming SAE for it all, of the fact that at root the fault of so much of this is with English political choices aka the Tories. SAE parliamentary evidence on viability of tidal even points out Meygen was smaller than it could have been specifically because revenue support system was supposed to be guaranteed and in place for a number of years, allowing them to optimise deployment a few years on rather than rush it through. With hindsight rushing through would have been better for company because the Tories shafted the tidal sector, just like they did for onshore wind for the last decade, like they look ready to do to solar. Can't exaggerate what a bad investment environment these people have made for the British clean energy economy.

Turbine size - agree as with all investment comms, more info would be nice but lack of it a product of the above turbulence and probably limited resources to give to it. AFAIK AR300 is - per the company - to be deployed at Raz Blanchard. Part of the issue here is on sea depth, with greater depths allowing greater rotors. Guess we just wait and see. Twitter account would be nice but SAE have got lots of abuse and therefore bad PR on it from people annoyed they're not rich already, so hard to say if good or bad keeping only good RNS news on it.

Financing - hardly comfortable but there seems some chance of greater funding thanks to Scottish political choices, multidecade guaranteed revenue we hope from BESS soon, and high energy prices from Meygen. Getting books back in shape also opens regular project finance options. Abundance too are important here and this is IMO why was doubly important that the debentures were brought back in order as the platform does have the capacity to bring in millions in ways that support SAE the company while Meygen the project is successfully expanded.

You are also living a historic market downturn, especially UK. Ukraine war obviously makes the case for renewables but economic environment is killing investment, and Tories aren't providing the sort of political certainty to calm that. Not the best time to be trying to get rich on the stock market, and if it comes good SAE and tidal will be one of few growth options.

Also was a report a some years ago that industrial harvesting of offshore wind would slow windspeeds more than originally anticipated. Recall a 10% drop in Orsted share price on the news, but as Bob says I think in the bigger scheme of things this might be one matter we don't need to worry about!

UK confirmed into recession and interest rate announcements. A few % up in those conditions when all else goes down, for a small company, is probably best you can hope for right now.

may be wrong but isn't SAE in a joint venture at Raz Blanchard? Would seem mad for another company to get it. Also the SBS position that only SAE has experience of making utility-scale turbines, and would be the Indonesia partner, just seems like Simec is the main company in this space. For same reason and even if I'd like better comms when it comes down to it Orbital and Nova do great comms, help get tidal back a CfD pot, and Atlantis get the biggest auction award. All about a slice of a growing pie. Don't need RNSs on algae partnerships or data centres unless they're going to come good. SAE repeating the new line it's responsible for 75% of all global tidal output is a good call and strong.

Imo Raz Blanchard significance is being oveelooked.. partly as Atlantis is a UK company in mostly English media, so the media is less concerned with/ attuned to development in the French space and the French media is less concerned with a UK company.

Atlantis director Drew Blaxland was at a tidal summit in Le Havre over the summer, talking specifically and positively about RB progress. Simec rep on last years Tidal Express webinars (up on youtube) specifically said RB is a site from which we hope for good things in 2022. The French (generally pro domestic energy and not shy of investing) just need to take the same step UK government did with tidal and CFDs, and if they do we have a second meygen in play.

Definite mistakes made over time and with benefit of hindsight Usk was a mess, but main thing that did for SAE was Tory government pulling the subsidy agreement for tidal in 2016, messing up all the workings around meygen. I cut the company some slack for not doing everything perfect in a crisis causes by inept Tory mismanagement

Complex I think. Nova have turbines in Shetland and won a lease for more. Also have Indonesia work and Scotland factory support from Scottish governmentt, and a power purchase agreement in Canada (and maybe Wales). Many things look good for them but their turbines are only 200kw so they would have to install many many turbines to get Meygen kind of output. You are right i think a partnership was mentioned but has since gone quiet. A mystery. Nova also noticeable as the only major Scottish manufacturer not to win a CfD , so things do look good for the company but not great info out there.

Like Wenglishboy says there are now new components available that are meant to make the AR1500 yaw mechanism more efficient. Its obviously in Atlantis' interests to upgrade while turbines out of the water, but retrofitting might not be totally straightforward and also creates reliance on separate supply chains at a time when they are very stretched everywhere.

AIM sentiment is the opposite of what SAE needs, and what should be expected from any new technology when the government pulls the rug out from under a new industry (as it did with tidal soon after Meygen launch). Investors should be happy that high energy prices (first good luck at Atlantis for a while) means two turbines will for now create revenue of multiple turbines. Company took money from GHR sale, availability of a £2m loan from SIMEC also good news, and due to previous issues we know company slimmed down operations probably in a way intended to make sure the books balance for as long as possible and through all near term obligations.

Meygen should be seen as a pilot project for a new industry and tech that has in general given good performance. We know Atlantis want to move from ballast-weighted turbines to monopiles, we know there are few installations vessels of the type required and that hiring them is on a per-day basis very high cost, we know that new turbines will be different design to old ones, and we know that the ideal scenario is not to get 2 more turbines in ASAP but ultimately 100 in the medium term. Feels like with all these considerations are many reasons that 4 aren't in the water right now, even if it would be nice.

As for CFD - it is for sure the main point of interest. Orbital do a great job on many fronts but have only ever made two turbines. It would take 8 Nova turbines to match output of one AR1500. It's been a choppy ride but getting out/being out this close to a CFD seems odd to me, all the more so for those who have already taken a lot of rough luck over previous years. Impossible to rule out bad luck, but also fair to say no company seems more likely to benefit from the CFD than Atlantis.

Not a new document but the SAE parliamentary evidence on the state of Meygen, how it was let down by past government decisions, and considerable potential remaining, is always handy as a primer on the state of the company but arguably the sector overall.

https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/19447/pdf/

The document sees tidal targeting £150/MW but only after the first 100MW installed capacity. Whether SAE feel they can hit £210~ as stated in the new round seems a bit tight. I would be cautiously optimistic about some small increase of capacity at Meygen - it's the UK's largest site, so much is already in-place, and I can't imagine anyone being better placed to hit that price.

That said - it's definite a disappointing amount of funding that won't make much difference and isn't the step-change we'd have hoped. Perhaps the current gas and electricity prices and the compound effect of low wind will help make ministers aware of the problems we're getting into here, problems more offshore floating isn't going to help solve. Feels like a really criminal neglect of baseload in both the campaigning and policy on renewables right now, I would anticipate some small opportunity for SAE from this CfD but that people and companies are going to have keep on pressing the point about tidal for a while yet.

Have been mentions of more details to this CfD outlined between now and December. It'd obviously be good to see something specific on tidal put through within that. Current energy market conditions should be favourable for both tidal and Uskmouth, but we wait and see.

That's pretty much it - fact Meygen could be grown with CfD support below that of first UK offshore wind development is a v strong outline of where we have got to imo. The 80MW question is what level of Tory incompetence and refusal to ever under any circumstances support UK manufacturing, even after having done the hard yards, we are operating under.

@Thordon - large loss last year iirc is a paper loss owing to substantial disposal of seabed rights. They would have been on the accounts as development prospects, unfavourable investment environment clearly meant that wasn't happening so not accurate to keep listing them as assets. Think they were in Northern Ireland and UK south coast, so not the big ones.

Think each of the three turbines at Meygen has monthly revenue a bit above £100k - subsidies will perhaps be reduced from 2018 in 2021, but equally so are Atlantis' costs and downtime, so a useful rule of thumb. Naturally this doesn't factor-in any exports either.

All right guys ... if anyone wants some lighter and positive news then here's a recent study from Alderney. The study rates tidal as more efficient than wind power for building a renewable island grid because there's less need to curtail/waste the max output when wind is full gale, and because there's always some tidal movement (but not always enough wind to turn a turbine), it's cheaper and less inadvertently polluting than wind because it reduces Alderney's need of diesel backup considerably more than wind power.

It was also interesting to see Alderney's electricity cost (with a small, 7MW grid) as £300MWh, with Atlantis turbines already producing some way below that. Obviously the goal for SAE is large, grid-scale developments, but still good to be reminded that price already comes in at competitive in remote locations. I'm not sure what bearing SAE's prior Alderney involvement has on this study, or what additional relation it has to either Raz Blanchard or the FAB cable that's been delayed, but still it's a thorough and in current times uplifting report on the engineering superiority of tidal.

Take it easy all.

https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/4/1106?type=check_update&version=2

I don't really have insight on specific places, but remote islands have famously high (and polluting) energy costs from diesel generation - Sark is always the go-to example, but a lot of planning and subsidy for renewables has often had exceptions made specifically for remote islands for this reason. I suspect you can find some evidence of prices on other islands, and of course Alderney is another Channel Island which would of course be taking power from our Raz Blanchard project, once complete.

The Parliamentary select committee meeting that did the rounds on here a while back has a lot of this basic thinking - the Orbital CEO featured and indeed it was good to see in some ways a sector developing to such a point where you have a meeting on tidal and Simec and Nova weren't even there because the number of companies with commercial potential is growing. I think the cost curve (and EU targets) suggest perhaps around £100Mw by the end of the decade - but of course targets work in such a way that offshore wind was meant to be £100Mw hour by 2020 and is now coming in at £50. I presume the same can be achieved in tidal, but it needs backing - the EU will provide it in Europe I'm sure, but remains to be seen whether UK industrial strategy is just a Conservative party branding exercise.

I'm sure you can research many sites globally where tidal might be competitive due to high energy prices - you will probably find more info on the Nova and Simec websites (which I guess you've already scoured), perhaps on Orbital's, but really the key is government support so that it can go beyond finding specific locations and just become an obvious generation method for grids worldwide - as with wind and solar. The UK coastline of course would make it an ideal beneficiary if that ever happens, it'd just be nice if we were making and profiting on the technology, rather than buying it from Danish and German companies.

I am quietly confident for Simec in the new structure of the CfDs. Wave power is nowhere beyond pilot stage anywhere, and the one to watch out for is floating offshore wind, which is a technology with massive backing from big oil, including Total and Equinor, and of course has much knowledge from regular offshore wind technology to build on. With this level of support, my worry would be floating offshore coming to dominate the new Cfd structure structure every bit as much as regular offshore has the existing one - which would in some ways defeat the purpose of an objective to diversify technologies.

For the tidal sector as I understand it, nobody can compete really with Meygen. The new Orbital Marine O2 turbine may I think be more powerful than the Atlantis ones, but is larger, at a much earlier stage of development, and Simec have more work already done on scaling production and deployment. Atlantis turbines are also sub-sea, while Orbital's floats, and visibility in pristine environments is a growing issue for renewables, so the sub-sea element is in our favour, though it's hard to say to what extent these things will be factored-in. Naturally the ideal would be government seeing the UK lead in tidal, and the huge advantage of a totally predictable renewable energy source, and creating a pot for tidal itself.

It should also be noted that even at a very high £250/Mw strike price, that still represents competitive power pricing in some places. The Channel Island of Sark, with a famously corrupt and diesel-burning electricity grid, has average power prices upwards of £600/Mw. These remote island communities can be a key part of developing a tidal strategy, and Nova Innovation have already got (smaller) turbines deployed in Shetland and Nova Scotia, but of course the key to really driving forward the technology would be building Meygen up to an 80MW scale, with all the revenue and R&D that entails, so that costs could then be brought down substantially to meet the genuinely vast addressable global market for tidal, rather than picking up projects piecemeal.

It is also, as I understand it, very much not a winner-take-all scenario. Each of these companies has its own USP (not SUP!) and individually makes the case for the entire sector. They are also generally smaller than Simec and, again in so far as I understand it, have done some really good innovation work on things like subsea connectors, to the advantage of Simec.

I think the £75k from the Welsh Government was significant less as funds but more a good sign of the value they attach to Simec, and by extension, to Uskmouth - a useful indicator also of the prevailing mood in advance of any call-in made by Cardiff.

In general it is of course rocky and not what anyone would want, but I'm unmoved.

The 52-week high was around 33p - recorded after the Hana financing deal was announced, itself fairly soon after the successful test results that proved the viability of the Uskmouth technology.

With all permitting in place one would expect a valuation above this, though perhaps in turn depressed by most current market valuations being somewhat lower than last summer's.

As has been suggested, the valuation in the 60p region from Arden would be the medium term hope, which we might be helped towards by positive CfD news later this year for tidal energy. Cautiously and there are certainly positive noises being made in this regard. As someone motivated primarily by climate concerns to invest here, the philosophy of thinking yourself as an early investor in the world's largest tidal company is a good one, with anything from an also profitable (and in my opinion, environmentally sound) combustion/biowaste division a perk. I do also think that a number of the headline green shares are now overpriced and investors looking for value will begin to look elsewhere.

Dollar yields are rising, along with sentiment, making equities less attractive. Stimulus from the Biden administration isn't coming as fast as might have been hoped by the markets. All key stocks and green stocks are down considerably, not just Simec.The Uskmouth potential call-in and the timing is exacerbating those fears, however, so more negativity here.The tidal deployment in Japan is good news but lots of investors are looking primarily at Uskmouth for near-term returns. I still think it's most likely Uskmouth goes ahead, potentially even with the call-in upheld, but understand jitters. The tidal pipeline for the coming year is strong and I think we'll see it increasingly factored into the share value, but at the current time it is marginal, sadly.Additional to this there is clearly sinister behaviour on this board, with the same accounts vascillating between excessive optimism and excessive caution. Try to ignore them. Good luck, take a measure of things, but also don't be spooked unnecessarily.

Dollar yields are rising, along with sentiment, making equities less attractive. Stimulus from the Biden administration isn't coming as fast as might have been hoped by the markets. All key stocks and green stocks are down considerably, not just Simec.The Uskmouth potential call-in and the timing is exacerbating those fears, however, so more negativity here.The tidal deployment in Japan is good news but lots of investors are looking primarily at Uskmouth for near-term returns. I still think it's most likely Uskmouth goes ahead, potentially even with the call-in upheld, but understand jitters. The tidal pipeline for the coming year is strong and I think we'll see it increasingly factored into the share value, but at the current time it is marginal, sadly.Additional to this there is clearly sinister behaviour on this board, with the same accounts vascillating between excessive optimism and excessive caution. Try to ignore them. Good luck, take a measure of things, but also don't be spooked unnecessarily.

Also agree with that interpretation, but given the pattern of large developments is often a local objection overruled centrally, I can well imagine the wish to give reassurance about due process and local democracy at this stage.

That said I hope it doesn't come to local democracy being overruled, and we are sort of reading tea leaves at this point.

As others have intimated, given the centrality of Uskmouth to plans for a Welsh green energy and manufacturing cluster, and the economic prospects therein, I would see the Welsh government overruling local objections as a more likely outcome than the local council wanting to approve and the Welsh government overruling that in saying no.

Hope would of course be both local and national approval, with all environmental concerns mitigated, but I don't really see this as bad news so much as a not-unsurprising development that doesn't really bode ill.

Could be wrong, but I'm unperturbed.