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As with all investing there is the need for patience here but one of the reasons for optimism about a steadily rerating SP is that it can come from 3 separate directions.

As we just saw, a major step forward on BESS at USK has the potential to prompt a significant rerate, but so too does a major step forward on Meygen and likewise the BESS at Mey. Because milestones on these three projects is almost totally unrelated to one another, big news on BESS at Usk doesnt preclude the possibility of more major news from Scotland in the coming weeks and months.

The slow pace of unwinding interest rates and ESG investment remain headwinds, but value is steadily going to assert itself as serious investors start looking again at equities.

When I say it is worth above 10p it is not in the "it's going to 10p this afternoon" way that some do, it's simply a reflection of the fact that companies with comparable storage portfolios to the one SAE is putting together, even without Uskmouth land values or the world's largest tidal project, have share prices way above 20p or 30p.

This is hardly comparing like-for-like because all companies are different, and having a pipeline of projects coming about is different to an operational portfolio, but that's the whole principle of investing early and willingness to be patient.

Well done everyone enjoying this latest news. The below is something I'd been meaning to add anyway but the RNS seems to validate much of it.

On the name change to Ampeak I was agnostic, it not seeming like a priority but also of course SAE and Simec belonging to the company history, not making full sense therefore, nor reflecting the move to BESS. I would add that peak is a word associated also with tides. While I think money will come to tidal from GBE, I think it prudent that the company orientated itself around that which is certain rather than just likely or probable.

To make sense of recent pay increases, especially in light of what's happened clearly being on the cards, I suspect the sentiment was that a staff of around 20 is now running what was a staff of 100, and actually performing more successfully, such that the remuneration was warranted.

For the company as a whole, I am glad to see the commitment of LTHs being rewarded. I do think the Welsh BESS projects will be expanded, suspect the Scottish one at Mey will finally be signed-off, and I suspect that some GBE money will go to Meygen, allowing that value to steadily join the SP value. The big month for this last milestone is said to be October, when GBE investments begin.

I also think this financial close puts a decent floor in place, finally, encouraging more people to invest in what are obvious upsides. The company pipeline is obviously worth well north of 10p, and having seen out some rotten years and luck it would be odd to exit now, but much will rest on the willingness and ability of retail investors to stick around for that ride, and the pace at which institutional money begins to arrive.

Whatever happens it's an excellent validation of those who stayed in. Very glad that a few here will have had their patience rewarded.

In conclusion; a little disappointed because the pay thing is irritating and tidal remains the most interesting part of the business for me personally.

That being said, we know Meygen debt sits off of the main company books, and the value of tidal is by all accounts priced-out of the SP, so it is more a concern of what my interests are than how things are looking at SAE. There is admittedly a downwards revision less to the current SP than to the potential total upside to the company if tidal doesn't happen, but again, we're waiting on the same political decisions we were before, and I don't know how someone hungrier or more anything could have done anything different to what SAE have, given the wider macro conditions in recent years, and the rollercoaster tidal got put on by bad politicians.

In that respect, and with all major financial decisions moving slowly across all sectors and at many a business, I don't really see anything particularly out of the ordinary here, am glad there were no unpleasant surprises in this, am glad to hear of solid progress and payments towards financial close, and continue to wait on all the major events that I was waiting on before the report.

People will however make their own decisions based on things like being more keen on the tidal part of the business, or general feelings about many things, whether that be executive pay or how the company communicates.

Good luck as always to everyone.

Hard to know which of these threads to comment in. Having read the report my feelings are a mixed bag.

Salary increases are disappointing and while performance turned a corner these last 18 months it still isn't overall where we want to be. I'm no expert on executive pay so don't know if people were being significantly underpaid before, but still always something unpleasant in these things.

I'm not sure it was right to comment on the Abundance situation given the confidentiality stipulation, whatever sensible points Pask makes. The compensation to bondholders for the delay, and that cash flow wasn't available because it was being used to cover essential payments needed for FC, including purchasing physical infrastructure, makes me think the situation does not reflect risk so much as - paradoxically - increasing solidity of proceedings towards financial close. The Abundance investor pool is being treated as as forgiving a creditor as it generally proves to be. Nevertheless the point about necessary amount and salary increase stands, and especially alongside repeated language of relentless focus on costs, is irksome.

BESS - Despite questions over stakes in future projects, and changes to previously stated plans, I still feel confident that SAE is going to end up whatever happens with a large BESS portfolio that will leave an SP significantly higher than present. The deals and lease sales that seem imminent part of Q3 financial close will bring a cash injection that will likely repeat impact of previous ones. I suspect BESS planning permission will be granted in Scotland later in the year, marking a shift for the company as SAE would - if granted - go from one site to two, with resulting big increase in capacity. The report's language about surplus renewables in northern Scotland, while always true and part of the case at Mey, stands out because it makes what has always been a tidal project, and then a tidal+storage project, sound a lot like just a storage project.

Tidal - Obviously disappointment in language but - as ever - easy to have sympathy with the company here, despite tidal being what I'm most interested in. Mention of centrality of Scottish Government is part of same political dimension SAE are in with GBE. As I've noted, I think the political decisions will likely favour tidal, but that's useless in an annual report. Political decisions will change everything in the next year. Tidal was damaged by Tory & Labour governments messing it around, and we're still playing catchup. A 3MW turbine or 1.5MW turbine are such different prospects SAE need to wait on the 3MW - which doesn't exist yet. Moreover, tidal in an ongoing infancy (again blame Westminster) still cannot risk technology failure, so having first AR3000s at Meygen seems a risk compared to Proteus going first in France (we hope) in 2028. Issues of substantially increased costs is across the board, also plagues offshore wind and far bigger players like Orsted.

Take care out there TL, will miss your input and good energy. Good luck with your portfolio.

I'd also noticed the mention of a 2028 deployment. It is my view that when Proteus mention 2028 they are likely talking about their own core project in Normandy (although SAE receive a payment upon that project hitting certain milestones).

Meygen Phase 2 is due to commence operations in 2027, meaning either there'll be a delay, a variation to the permit, or an additional number of smaller turbines, rather than the 10 AR3000s that the 28MW expansion would entail. Of course it is also possible I suppose that a 2028 mention of Proteus AR3000s doesn't stop there being a 2027 deployment of SAE AR3000s, but that isn't exactly how it sounds.

Other points of recent interest is the repeat Indeximate contract for cable monitoring services at Meygen. This seems a good service, with cable wear having caused issues in earlier years of Meygen, but I'm also conscious that SAE as all generators with CFDs are required to demonstrate to Ofgem that certain tangibles are being put in place on the way to project delivery. It might also be that the cable monitoring contract is part of how this is being done.

In other developments, the Marine Energy Taskforce being established is very good news. While nuclear lobbyists clearly have far too much political control, and raiding GB Energy funds for SMR boondoggles or overpriced large reactors is bad news for the UK and its bill payers, given that there is currently no funding at all to tidal, the sums involved mean any amount at all into the sector would likely be transformative. I also fail to see how there would be yet another marine energy body being set up, with Westminster also involved, only to decide not to back tidal, when it is clearly such a good and popular idea. Again, given that current levels of support to tidal are basically nothing, and the sums we're talking about, I fail to see how even the lowest amounts would not be transformative. Noticeable too that both Nova and Orbital are represented on the taskforce, though not SAE, which I feel shows any investment into the sector will implicitly be felt also at Meygen.

Meanwhile waiting on a hopefully positive appraisal of the last year in the annual report.

Something that I think likely to play a part in the AR3000 delivery is the Normandie Hydroliennes project by Proteus in France. With €30m of EU funding for that, and I suppose some similar prospect of significant GBE investment into Meygen, not to mention the obvious shared interest of SAE and Proteus in both projects, it does seem logical that the combined existence of both projects and their need of a very large turbine order from a big industrial house would justify a single order at lower unit costs. With both sites certainly wanting to use an AR3000, and the close working relationship and stakeholding between SAE and Proteus, I can't see how this kind of overlap isn't going to prove relevant at some point.

Have a good holiday, TL.

Thanks for the digging Munin. I did wonder about likely distinctions between lease agreements, grid agreements and physical connection so it is good to get further info.

Would be an interesting scenario to see grid delays create more time for AR3000 development. I look forward to SAE progress updates all the same.

Not sure about this. The grid connection is already there in both the Mey and the Usk cases (one of the great advantages of both), and while the Mey one may need expanding on at some point, it is obviously already delivering power from the first 6MW and is consented up to 398MW if I remember right. Not sure anything will have to change for the addition of the next phase and its megawatts. I might be missing something of course, but I don't think I am. My thoughts are much more focused on the fact that no AR3000 exists as yet and we will need half a dozen in the next two years, or many more AR2000s and AR1500s than are currently operating.

Glad people appreciate it. As well as the self-interest and belief tidal will come good, I am also fond of the long-term and long-suffering community of holders here. I see upsides after difficult years and like to smooth out the volatility that comes from being too focused on short-term movements with some perspective here and there. I think retail investors can often get burnt if that isn't present and there are always people about looking to manipulate jitters or provoke overexcitement.

Good weekend to everyone.

*typo - "If *so* then it will reflect very healthily.." concerning whether another large payment on the lease was received during the most recent accountancy year. I do feel SAE may have received another £10m in the relevant year, which would show very healthily as another year of earnings.

I think the "Tomorrow is MeyBESS decision day" subject may be causing needless worry. Maybe that was the case pre referral to the ECU but once that had happened it was (as someone noted) very unlikely anyone would turn around a decision within two weeks. Meanwhile the political gravity around BESS and other projects being accepted continues to point towards consent being granted in the course of things, even if nothing can ever be guaranteed.

The recent RNS pointing to financial close in the next few months, for the next phase of the BESS at Usk, is for me the main event forthcoming and we're still well within that window of a matter of months. Together with Mey BESS consents, these are the two major and definitive progress milestones.

The Quinbrook project was due to come online by now, and would be nice because it could catalyse some good PR for SAE, but with no payments outstanding it doesn't seem too substantial.

What would be good is more news on MeyGen expansion, with commissioning of new turbines due in 2027. That may yet come in the shape however of Proteus showing progress on the AR3000 becoming a reality at one of its other projects.

There is the forthcoming annual report, assuming its filed on time - one would hope that it would be but companies far larger than SAE do seem to miss the date so it probably isn't inconceivable. I can't recall if a payment was made for the lease on USK BESS1 during the relevant accountancy period, I think so but am not sure. If not then it will reflect very healthily on earnings and if not then they'll be fairly flat, I suspect. Nonetheless and, especially in the former case, if things look good in the report for a second year it will perhaps be noted by non-retail investors, which will be welcome and an important step for SAE.

Finally the announcement of AR7 in August, particularly if new funds for tidal, stands to be significant. Likewise of course the announcement that GB Energy will begin to spend in autumn, with October being noted.

In summary there don't to me seem to be any real causes for concern. The waiting isn't ideal but on the key things (USK financial close and ECU at MeyBESS) it seems to be well within expected timeframes.

My view is that a strong channel of likely confirmations and permissions remain in place, with the financial close being the most significant. All of them (connection of BESS 1, construction of BESS 2, pemission at Meygen, GBE funding) along with changing market conditions of presumed unwinding of interest rate hikes, have potential to provide a tailwind to the share price. These derisking events and a more favourable climate for equities should see a level of interest returning.

The only small surprise of late was the news of a partial monetisation of the lease on BESS 2, something that it had been indicated would not be necessary. It will be good to see the details on this but basic logic shouldn't in my view affect the share price, certainly not negatively. SAE will be able to negotiate any monetisation from a position of far greater strength (both as a company and given the wider BESS market) than was the case with Quinbrook. While the leasing out of maybe 100MW of future capacity to an infrastructure partner would negatively alter the total potential value of SAE, the immediate provision (assuming a re-run of the previous monetisation) of perhaps tens of millions cash at bank would probably do no harm. The share price is still more reflective of short term position than long term potential value, so I wouldn't necessarily be surprised to see a favourable reaction to monetisation, even if it would mark a small dent out of future potential.

Meanwhile we remain up almost 200% on a year ago, which is always worth keeping in mind.

The resilience of the price in all this is good evidence of a basically undervalued company that people expect significant upwards movements in.

Always did like how predictable and uneventful life as an SAE investor was!

I also think there is inevitable systemic manipulation right now so good luck everyone and possibly hold tight.

Hopefully the French backing induces some competitive spirit and helps secure UK funds, but this is good news anyway as support for AR300 - both in the direct costs incurred by Proteus but also the cost of manufacture. The turbine order to be placed with Mitsubishi or whichever industrial giant can now be for approximately double the number of units as it would be if only for Meygen (or only for NH), which should be reflected in a lower cost-per-turbine.

If I remember rightly, additional to the growth in value of the 10% SAE holding in Proteus, SAE is also due to receive a payment a little under £1m if Proteus successfully get the Normandie Hyrdroliennes project over the line, which it seems ever more likely they will.

Remember the Proteus model is apparently to outsource manufacture to one of the large heavy industry houses - a Mitsubishi, Hitachi or GE. While I suspect manufacture will evolve over time, if this is the initial plan then I'm sure capacity is in hand.

And to think we used to get RNSs on seaweed growing projects!

That makes a confirmation of this capacity market contract, next Bank of England rates decision, and next stage of the Mey BESS planning process all due in the coming weeks. As someone pointed out recently we are also due imminent government announcement of the new allowances for the tidal pot in the next CFD auction. The announcement was made early March last year so it could really drop whenever.

Also nice to essentially have the EU money funding the AR3000 development and helping get those prices down.

Something else of value is the recent trend of large investors like pension funds with a climate mandate dropping their holdings in fund managers that rode the ESG wave but have now reverted in full to fossil fuels. It is speculative but I fail to see how this won't lead to such funds having to look for new homes for their capital where their ESG mandate is still covered, as it obviously is at SAE.

No problem. Actually most of my working knowledge I picked up in previous years and earlier reports, when tidal was younger and SAE in a more fragile position I wanted to understand very clearly. I don't read quite so much now because I am less concerned, a lot of it repeats what has long been argued in the research, and which Meygen and some other suppliers are starting to prove. I also feel confident that political advocacy for tidal is being done well. A percentage commitment of GBE funding, and (perhaps more importantly) a government target for total tidal generation, are the core asks now, and it is good to see the Marine Energy Council consistently gravitate back to them. The CFD re/introduction, the ring-fenced tidal spend, and the increase in that spend, all suggest this work is paying off, and inclusion in GBE spend seems an obvious next step. How the system gets fine-tuned to complete the inclusion of tidal energy is less crucial than the fact that tidal does seem to be on its way into the system. You can never fully trust UK Government not to do something dumb that hurts domestic manufacturing and the renewables agenda, but you can't research for this either, and I think even these people now understand the value that tidal can bring.

Good luck and a good week to everyone.

@mister_tidal

Still a lot of guesswork in how GBE might put money into Meygen. The NWF did invest directly in the Cornish mine, so that is one possible option, just as Scottish Enterprise are already a stakeholder in Meygen. I don't know if this could lead to concerns about picking winners in the sector, though this problem is partly offset by the fact that, since the Proteus separation, SAE can afford to be turbine-agnostic at Meygen, and so support of Meygen could still benefit other manufacturers. While plausible, this would obviously erode the benefits of working with a single (and hopefully superior) model of turbine, and I can't see how it wouldn't also end up something like a version of EMEC, where different suppliers plug-in at Meygen. All this seems quite removed from the full vision and potential of Meygen.

Conversely, we know that one of the factors that will significantly bring down the costs of tidal is turbine financing and particularly insurance. A mechanism to support in this regard would offer a way for GBE to back the entire sector without favouring any one company, though of course Meygen and SAE would be the largest beneficiary for now by virtue of being so much bigger and better-placed to take advantage of such a facility. It wouldn't have the same big-ticket announcement as NWF becoming a shareholder, but would still be transformative.

For now it is all guesswork but I do think we can be confident there will be some money for tidal, and it will be a question for everyone of how best to get that money where it has biggest impact. The emerging and perfectly reasonable new SAE claim of "Think tidal, Think Meygen" perhaps resembles a decent effort at positioning itself accordingly, in the same way that the UK can't talk about rail investment without talking about HS2. We wait and see.